The Closer – Liberation Day – 4/2/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a recap of “Liberation Day” (page 1) followed by a look into the Nasdaq’s intraday strength (page 2). We then review the latest vehicle sales data (page 3) including a brand by brand breakdown and auto stock performance (page 4). We then look at the latest employment data (page 5) and petroleum stockpile readings (page 6).
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/2/25 – “Liberation Day”
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.” – Alfred Hitchcock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 put in a closing low on March 13th that established the first major low of this correction. So far, we’ve managed to hold above that level, but it’s the one to watch going forward. A close below the 3/13 low will mark a resumption of the downtrend that’s in place. For bulls, the next step in breaking the downtrend would be a close above last Tuesday’s high and then a series of higher highs and higher lows that eventually takes the index to new all-time highs. You can see the process that played out when we had the last major pullback in July/August in the chart below:
The Closer – Internationals vs. Domestics, PMIs, LMI – 4/1/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at the performance of stocks with the greatest and least international revenue exposure and their response to tariff headlines (pages 1 and 2). We then pivot over to a look at credit activity (page 3) followed be a review of the latest economic data including construction spending (page 4), PMIs (page 5), LMI (page 6 and 7), JOLTS (page 8), and finally Indeed job postings (page 9).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke Market Calendar — April 2025
Please click the image below to view our April 2025 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – Spring Clean-Up
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“On April Fools’ Day, believe nothing, trust no one, just like any other day.” – Unknown
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a review of asset class performance in Q1 using our ETF matrix. For domestic index ETFs, it’s been a nasty run, although we’d note that seven of the eleven US sector ETFs finished the quarter higher.
Outside of the US, however, there was green nearly everywhere in Q1. While the S&P 500 (SPY) was down 4.3%, the all-world ex-US ETF (CWI) gained 5.9% during the quarter, and country ETFs like Brazil (EWZ), China (MCHI), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Spain (EWP), and the UK (EWU) were all up 10%+.
Commodity ETFs outside of agriculture also posted solid Q1 gains. Both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) gained more than 15%, while natural gas (UNG) rose 28.6%. Fixed-income ETFs posted solid Q1 returns as well.
Within US equities, the mega-caps accounted for nearly all of the S&P 500’s Q1 drop. As shown below, the five largest stocks in the S&P all fell more than 10% in Q1, and the ten largest are down an average of 11.4% YTD. The rest of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down an average of just 0.6% YTD.
The Closer – Quarter Over, Gap Down, Support – 3/31/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with a look at the intraday performance of equities (page 1) followed by an update on the performance of the 60/40 portfolio (page 2). We then provide a rundown of asset performance in Q1 (page 3) including the historic disconnect between gold, international stocks, and the S&P 500 (page 4). We also provide a decile analysis of the quarter (page 5). We cap off with a final update of our Five Fed Manufacturing composite for March (pages 6 and 7).
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Bespoke Matrix of Economic Indicators – 3/31/25
Our Matrix of Economic Indicators provides a concise summary analysis of the US economy’s momentum. We combine trends across the dozens and dozens of economic indicators in various categories like manufacturing, employment, housing, the consumer, and inflation to provide a directional overview of the economy.
To access our newest Matrix of Economic Indicators, start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional now!
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/31/25 – New Lows?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“At its best, life is completely unpredictable.” – Christopher Walken
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
If Christopher Walken was right, why do the markets feel so terrible? You’ve seen all the different ways of measuring the extreme levels of uncertainty in the markets, and it only seems to get worse with each passing day. After President Trump spent much of last week downplaying the degree of tariffs that would be announced on April 2nd, so-called “Liberation Day”, last night the Wall Street Journal reported that the Administration is now re-considering an across-the-board 20% tariff. So, if you thought you had no idea what was going on, you’re not alone. Adding to that, if you think we’ll suddenly start to see certainty come Wednesday, good luck with that.
Equity futures are sharply lower to start the week even after Friday’s plunge. While the rest of the world appeared to have avoided America’s cold, that’s not the case this morning. Europe’s STOXX 600 is down close to 2% relative to Friday’s close and nearly 6% from its YTD high. Asian stocks were also lower overnight. The Nikkei plunged over 4% and is now down 12% from its high in December.
S&P 500 futures are down just about 1% this morning, and that puts the lows from mid-March into play as the current level of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is right between its intraday low ($549.68) and its closing low ($551.42) from March 13th. If the intraday lows from that day don’t hold, the next potential level of support is the post-Labor Day lows.
Brunch Reads – 3/30/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
I Hope You’re All Republicans: With presidential assassinations in the news for several reasons as of late including the recent release of JFK files and the attempt on President Trump’s life last year, we look back to March 30, 1981, forty-four years ago today. Just two months into his presidency, Ronald Reagan had finished addressing a gathering of labor leaders at the Washington Hilton Hotel. At 2:27 pm, as Reagan exited the hotel and waved to a small crowd, six gunshots cracked through the air. Secret Service agents immediately sprang into action, pushing the President into his limousine and subduing the shooter, 25-year-old John Hinckley Jr. Within seconds, blood was on the pavement. White House Press Secretary James Brady lay critically wounded with a bullet to the head. A DC police officer and a Secret Service agent were also hit.
Initially, Reagan didn’t even realize he’d been shot. He was inside the armored limousine when he began coughing up blood and feeling faint. A bullet had ricocheted off the limo and pierced his left lung, coming perilously close to his heart. Despite the gravity of the wound, Reagan remained calm and famously joked to doctors at George Washington University Hospital, “I hope you’re all Republicans.” Reagan survived emergency surgery and rapidly recovered, earning him a wave of public sympathy and solidifying his image as a resilient leader.
Hinckley later claimed he acted to impress actress Jodie Foster, inspired by the film Taxi Driver. He was found not guilty by reason of insanity and was institutionalized for decades. The attempt on Reagan’s life led to major reforms in presidential security but was not the last assassination attempt on a current or former US President.
Sports & Entertainment
Farewell, Cinderella: March Madness Surrenders to the Powerhouses (WSJ)
This year’s Sweet 16 is completely Cinderella-free. Every team left standing comes from just four major conferences and the lowest seed left is Arkansas, hardly an underdog. The era of plucky mid-majors sneaking through seems to be fading fast, thanks to conference realignment, NIL money, and the transfer portal turning college hoops into a high-stakes game of musical chairs. Fans might miss the charm of a true underdog run, but the brands still draw big crowds. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – Equity Market Pros and Cons – Q2 2025
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q2 2025.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, sign up for Bespoke’s 50/20 special today. Our 50/20 special gets you a full year of Premium for half off, then 20% off per month after the first year. SIGN UP HERE.
Below is a look at the performance of key ETFs across asset classes since Election Day and Inauguration Day. International markets, defensives, precious metals, and Treasuries have been the only areas of strength during Trump 2.0. What’s the right acronym for that?
