Brunch Reads – 3/23/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Freedom Finds Its Voice: On March 23, 1775, at St. John’s Church in Richmond, Virginia, Patrick Henry delivered one of the most electrifying speeches in American history. Addressing the Second Virginia Convention, Henry called for armed resistance against British rule. His words, culminating in the legendary phrase “Give me liberty, or give me death!”, helped push the colonies toward revolution. By 1775, tensions between Britain and the American colonies had reached a breaking point. The British government had imposed harsh measures, including the Intolerable Acts, to suppress colonial resistance. While some leaders still hoped for reconciliation, Henry saw war as inevitable. He warned that waiting for peace negotiations would only lead to further oppression. Within a month, the first shots of the American Revolution rang out at Lexington and Concord. His words became a rallying cry for revolutionaries and still symbolize the fight for freedom.
AI & Technology
Why Most Companies Shouldn’t Have an AI Strategy (WSJ)
Most companies scrambling to build AI strategies put the cart way before the horse. They don’t have the data, infrastructure, or internal culture needed to execute anything meaningful. The piece argues that AI shouldn’t be treated like some standalone revolution but as one part of a broader digital toolbox, integrated thoughtfully with existing tech and workflows. Instead of flashy top-down plans, progress is more likely to come from empowering employees to experiment responsibly and letting digital maturity grow from the ground up. [Link]
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The Bespoke Report – 3/21/25 – Global Macro Update
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. In this week’s report, we offer a top-down look at the three huge trends driving global markets and economies as the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close. We review developments and trends across the three major global economies as well as drivers of recent shifts across assets, and what the developments of the last couple of months imply for the future. Don’t miss it!
Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Carnival (CCL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Carnival’s (CCL) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Carnival (CCL) is the world’s largest cruise company, operating nine brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, and AIDA, with a fleet that spans contemporary, premium, and luxury segments. The company serves vacationers globally, with a stronghold in the US, UK, and European markets. CCL offers insight into consumer travel trends, discretionary spending, and global tourism demand. Its unique land-sea packages in Alaska and growing portfolio of private destinations like Celebration Key reflect a strategic push to differentiate the guest experience. CCL’s Q1 results exceeded expectations. The company cited record booking volumes for 2025 and 2026, 10% growth in onboard spending, and strong pricing across all core brands. Marketing campaigns, like a Super Bowl tie-in and Times Square promotions, helped boost visibility and drive new-to-cruise growth. Upcoming openings at Celebration Key and a revamped Half Moon Cay aim to accelerate Caribbean capacity from 6.5M to 11M guests by decade’s end. Management acknowledged macro and geopolitical volatility but maintained full-year yield guidance and expressed confidence in continued pricing power.
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Nike (NKE)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Nike’s (NKE) Q3 2025 earnings call.
Nike (NKE) is the world’s largest designer, marketer, and distributor of athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment, operating under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands. With a global reach spanning over 190 countries and 40,000 points of distribution, Nike serves athletes of all levels while blending high-performance innovation with cultural relevance. NKE’s Q3 call spotlighted its accelerated efforts to reset the business through its “Win Now” actions under new CEO Elliott Hill. While total revenue fell 9% YoY and gross margin declined 330 bps, management emphasized momentum in performance categories like running and training, with new products like the Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18. NKE is actively rightsizing inventory in legacy franchises like Air Force 1 and Dunk, which it plans to reduce by 10+ points of total mix. Nike Digital cut promo days from 30+ to zero YoY, signaling a pivot back to full-price selling. China remains challenging, but NKE is aggressively cleaning up the market and doubling down on innovation and localized strategy. Despite better-than-expected results, shares fell as much as 8.5% on 3/21…
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: FedEx (FDX)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers FedEx’s (FDX) Q3 2025 earnings call.
FedEx (FDX) is a global logistics and transportation company best known for express delivery, ground shipping, freight services, and supply chain solutions. The company operates one of the largest air cargo fleets in the world and is deeply integrated into global trade, offering a unique lens into consumer demand, industrial activity, and international shipping flows. FDX beat expectations on operating income and EPS but cut full-year guidance to $18–$18.60 due to weak B2B demand and rising cost pressures. The industrial economy remains a drag, particularly on FedEx Freight, which saw daily shipments fall 5%. However, deferred and international services drove volume gains, aided by a 24 million package day on Cyber Monday. DRIVE delivered $600M in savings this quarter, and 12% of global volume now runs through Network 2.0. FDX expanded Sunday delivery to reach two-thirds of US households and secured $400M in new healthcare revenue. The freight spinoff is progressing, and international air freight strength led to a surprising extension of MD-11 aircraft into FY32. Shares fell almost 10% at the open on 3/21 on mixed results and weak guidance…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 3/21/25 – Will the Streak End?
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When you see only problems, you’re not seeing clearly.” – Phil Knight
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
For the first time since the S&P 500 peaked in mid-February, there’s a chance that we will get by with a positive week. The S&P 500 heads into the last trading day of the week with a gain of 0.42%, but futures are lower, so it’s hardly a done deal. The Nasdaq has also been down for the last four weeks, but unless it rallies 0.35% today (it’s on pace to open 0.4% lower), the streak will extend to a fifth week. If there’s any silver lining, the Nasdaq’s streak of four weeks in a row of 2%+ declines looks likely to end. The Russell 2000 also came into this week riding a streak of four straight weekly declines of at least 1%, but heading into the day, it was up over 1% on the week, so barring a lousy Friday (anything is possible these days), that streak is likely to end.
The tone overnight in Asia has been negative. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped over 2% for the second day in a row, capping off the worst two-day decline for that index since October. Japan was down fractionally, and Chinese stocks fell over 1%. European stocks are also closing the week on a down note as the STOXX 600 trades down 0.68%, even as it still hangs on to gains for the week. Travel stocks in Europe are leading the declines today as a fire near Heathrow Airport has shut down all air traffic for the rest of the day. The German upper house of Parliament also passed the country’s 500-billion euro spending package for defense and infrastructure, but that was widely expected.
Here in the US, there’s nothing on the economic calendar, so it would make sense to expect a quiet day, especially with the NCAA tournament this afternoon, but you never know when you know who will decide if they have something to say.
Looking at all the red candles in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) chart shows that the market has primarily only been seeing problems lately. In looking at the ETF’s recent intraday performance, we came across a fascinating trend (at least to us it was). On a trailing four-week basis (20 trading days), SPY closed below its opening price 14 times. Over the last 20 years, that high frequency of down days in four weeks has been uncommon, and there has only been one other period (January 2008) when there was a higher frequency of down days.
Since 2005, there have been 17 periods when SPY was down from the open to close 14 times in 20 days, so it occurs an average of about once every 14 months. What’s unique about the last year is that this is the fourth different period in the last year that the rolling 20-day total of declines from the open to close reached 14. Since 2005, there’s never been a one-year period with four separate periods. The only other period with even three was back in 2005. We’re living in unique times!
The Closer – Existing Homes, Five Fed Fallout, Aristocrats – 3/20/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look into the latest housing data in addition to how affordability has shaped up (pages 1 and 2). We then dive into the latest update of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3). After a review of tonight’s earnings report (page 4), we take a look at some dividend stocks (page 5).
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Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Titan Machinery (TITN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Titan Machinery’s (TITN) Q4 2025 earnings call.
Titan Machinery (TITN) is one of the largest equipment dealers in North America, specializing in selling, leasing, and servicing agricultural and construction machinery. As the largest CNH Industrial (Case IH and New Holland) dealer, TITN provides crucial insight into farming and construction trends across the US, Europe, and Australia. The company operates over 100 dealerships, offering tractors, combines, excavators, and other heavy equipment, while also generating recurring revenue from parts and service. Its performance serves as a barometer for farm income, commodity price trends, infrastructure spending, and broader economic conditions affecting equipment demand. TITN aggressively cut inventory, reducing it by $304M in Q4 and $419M for the year. However, this effort pressured margins, contributing to a $44.9M adjusted net loss. North American large ag equipment demand is expected to fall around 30% in 2025, mirroring 2016-2017 lows, due to declining farm cash receipts. Government farm assistance ($30B potential) could provide some relief, but tariff uncertainty adds risk. Construction revenue is forecasted to drop 5-10%, while European sales may stabilize after Romania’s drought-driven downturn. Australia faces similar weakness. The stock opened 15.6% lower on 3/20, but made a more than 30% upward turn intraday after beating estimates…
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Historic Dividend Outperformance
In pulling up our Trend Analyzer tool, one thing that is clear when looking at US thematic ETFs is where the damage has been done during the latest correction. For year to date performance, the biggest losers are now mostly growth factors, whereas low volatility and dividend focused ETFs are actually still in the green so far in 2025. Of course, dividend ETFs have a variety of methodologies. Some ETFs only have holdings with the highest yields, whereas others focus on quality of dividends, placing preference on things such as dividend growth and longevity. One of the most well-known dividend strategies is owning Dividend Aristocrats, of which the NOBL ETF tracks. Dividend Aristocrats only includes stocks that have raised their dividend payments for a minimum of 25 straight years.
In the 5 years since the COVID Crash low, growth stocks have been the primary driver of the market, especially since the start of the AI boom beginning in late 2022. However, the performance of the Dividend Aristocrats has still been respectable. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 (SPY) has gained 167% versus the 117% total return for the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Looking more recently, NOBL actually peaked ahead of the market in late November compared to the mid-February high for the broader market. Since their respective 52-week highs, NOBL is down a smaller 5.6% versus 7.12% for SPY. Additionally, looking only at the past month’s more tumultuous period since the S&P 500’s 2/19 high, NOBL is down only 0.5% to the S&P 500’s 7% drop.
In other words, even though they peaked earlier and are down only slightly less from highs, as designed, the Dividend Aristocrats have been much less volatile during the latest stock market rough patch.
While the qualification to be included in the Dividend Aristocrats is to have raised dividend payments for at least 25 years, at the moment the 69 holdings in NOBL have on a median basis raised dividends for 42 consecutive years. In the table below, we show those members that have posted the largest gains year to date in addition to their market caps, current dividend yield (and whether that is a larger or smaller yield than the S&P 500), and length of raised dividends. As shown, utility-provider Con Ed (ED) is up the most with a year-to-date gain of 20.6% while boasting a dividend yield that is more than twice as large as the S&P. It has also passed the half century mark for increased dividends. Other notable Aristocrats that are up more than 10% year-to-date include Chevron (CVX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), and IBM. You can view a tear sheet that lists all of NOBL’s holdings and the number of years in a row that each of them has raised dividends at this PDF.
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Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Accenture (ACN)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Accenture’s (ACN) Q2 2025 earnings call.
Accenture (ACN) is a professional services firm specializing in digital transformation, technology consulting, and managed services. The company helps businesses, governments, and organizations navigate complex challenges through AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics. Serving clients across industries, from financial services to healthcare and manufacturing, ACN is a key player in enterprise reinvention. ACN reported $16.7B in revenue, up 8.5% in local currency, and $20.9B in bookings, including 32 deals over $100M, reflecting strong demand for large-scale transformation projects. Generative AI revenue hit $600M, and AI-related bookings reached $1.4B. However, US federal contracts (8% of revenue) face some uncertainty due to government reviews. Managed services and cloud saw double-digit growth, while macro uncertainty around tariffs and consumer sentiment remains a watch item. The company continues investing in talent, with 72,000 AI-trained employees and a goal of 80,000 by FY26. Despite posting better-than-expected results, ACN opened trading down 8.5% on 3/20 due to the potential impact of DOGE efforts…
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