Bulls Back Below 20%

In spite of the S&P 500 actually reversing course and heading higher in the past week, sentiment on the part of individual investors surveyed by the American Association of Individual Investors has turned lower, once again falling below 20%. That is the first sub-20% reading since the last week of April, although the multiple readings in the mid-teens last month were lower than this week’s reading.

The past several months as the major indices have entered downtrends have seen an impressive collapse in optimism.  Over the past six months, slightly more than half of the time less than a quarter of AAII respondents have reported as bullish. Going back through the history of the survey beginning in the late 1980s, there have only been two other periods with this same sort of consistently pessimistic attitude for an extended period of time: late 1988 to early 1989 and two years later in early 1991.

Given bulls were hard to find, bearish sentiment ticked up to 53.5%. Although over half of respondents are expecting lower stock prices, that is still not as high of a reading as the end of April when it was nearly 60%.

Regardless, bears continue to heavily outweigh bulls as the bull-bear spread has now sat in negative territory for all but two weeks over the past half-year.

The bearish camp did not pick up all of the losses in bullish sentiment.  Neutral sentiment rose back up to 26.7% this week marking the highest reading in a month. That being said, the reading remains below the historical average of 31.43%.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

The Bespoke 50 Growth Stocks — 5/26/22

The “Bespoke 50” is a basket of noteworthy growth stocks in the Russell 3,000.  To make the list, a stock must have strong earnings growth prospects along with an attractive price chart based on Bespoke’s analysis.  The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday unless otherwise noted.  There were no changes to the list this week.

The Bespoke 50 is available with a Bespoke Premium subscription or a Bespoke Institutional subscription.  You can learn more about our subscription offerings at our Membership Options page, or simply start a two-week trial at our sign-up page.

The Bespoke 50 performance chart shown does not represent actual investment results.  The Bespoke 50 is updated weekly on Thursday.  Performance is based on equally weighting each of the 50 stocks (2% each) and is calculated using each stock’s opening price as of Friday morning each week.  Entry prices and exit prices used for stocks that are added or removed from the Bespoke 50 are based on Friday’s opening price.  Any potential commissions, brokerage fees, or dividends are not included in the Bespoke 50 performance calculation, but the performance shown is net of a hypothetical annual advisory fee of 0.85%.  Performance tracking for the Bespoke 50 and the Russell 3,000 total return index begins on March 5th, 2012 when the Bespoke 50 was first published.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  The Bespoke 50 is meant to be an idea generator for investors and not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.  It is not personalized advice because it in no way takes into account an investor’s individual needs.  As always, investors should conduct their own research when buying or selling individual securities.  Click here to read our full disclosure on hypothetical performance tracking.  Bespoke representatives or wealth management clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/26/22 – Is it Real? Or is it Metaverse?

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Someday neither AI nor us will be able to tell whether we are in a virtual or physical world.” – Jensen Huang

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

We’ll be honest, based on the way markets have been trading the last couple of months, we would have expected that if the 7th largest stock (NVIDIA) in the Nasdaq 100 was trading 5% lower in reaction to earnings, that futures for the index would also be lower.  Right now, futures are actually trading about 0.4% higher. Is this real?

In addition to the positive tone in futures, there’s also some major M&A news with Broadcom (AVGO) reaching a deal to acquire VMware (VMW) in a cash and stock deal valued at $61 billion in what would be one of the largest tech mergers of all time.  On the one hand, a bull would point to this transaction as a sign that companies are finding value in the market after the plunge over the last five months.  On the other hand, as recently as February, VMW’s stock was right around the $142.50 price the company agreed to sell itself at today, so does that indicate that management expects limited upside for the industry going forward?

It’s a big morning for economic data with revised GDP for Q1 (revised lower), Personal Consumption (higher than expected), PCE (lower than expected), and Jobless Claims (initial lower than expected, continuing higher) all just released at 8:30.  Later on this morning, Pending Home Sales and the KC Fed manufacturing report will be released at 10 AM.

In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap morning earnings reports (pg 4), overnight central bank actions (pg 4), the latest economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 5), and a lot more.

The Energy sector hit another new 52-week high yesterday further cementing its lead as the top-performing sector in the S&P 500.  Given the rally over the last year, it’s pretty hard to believe that the Energy sector is still more than 10% below its record high back in 2014.

Given the rally in Energy, the sector’s relative strength has made a significant turnaround this year.  After eight years of near-constant underperformance, the recent outperformance has taken its relative strength to levels not seen in three years.

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.

The Closer – Minutes Review, Durable Goods, High Yield Rally – 5/25/22

Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.

Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out tonight with some notes on today’s release of the Fed’s meeting minutes (page 1). We then recap today’s 5 year note auction (page 2) followed by a look into the durable goods numbers (page 3). Pivoting back to fixed income, we then take a look at credit spreads (page 4). We finish with our weekly recap of EIA stockpile data (page 5).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Fixed Income Weekly: 5/25/22

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.

In this week’s report we look at the technical shift in the trend for interest rates.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 5/25/22

Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world.  For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates.  The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation.  It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy.  The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management.  It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.

You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/25/22 – Fixed Income Repairs

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup.  Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day.  Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“All ballplayers should quit when it starts to feel as if all the baselines run uphill.” – Babe Ruth

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of content from today’s Morning Lineup for Bespoke Premium members.  Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium now to access the full report.

On this day in 1935, Babe Ruth hit his last home run before retiring from the game about a week later. Ruth not only hit one home run that day, but he went four for four with three bombs and six RBIs.  Like Ruth’s advice in the above quote for when to quit the game, traders should take a similar approach and step back from the tape when the lines on the charts constantly go in the wrong direction.  For traders biased to the long side, there’s been a lot of that this year.

Futures are lower again this morning as economic concerns weigh on sentiment and investors find little in the way of urgency to put money to work.  The war in Ukraine shows no signs of easing, weekly mortgage applications showed no growth in purchase applications, and this morning’s earnings warning from Dick’s (DKS) suggests that the consumer may be catching a cold.

It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar with Durable Goods (weaker than expected) and Energy Inventories the only reports on the calendar.  Outside of DKS, which has already reported, the only major report on the calendar after the close is NVIDIA (NVDA).  Semis had been showing some relative strength versus the market up until late last week, so this will be an important report to watch, although NVDA’s high multiple relative to the market means that investors may not be willing to give it much leeway.

In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap on the latest earnings warning in the retail sector from DKS (pg 4), Asian and European markets (pg 4), group performance in the Eurozone (pg 5), the latest economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 5), and a lot more.

After the first four months of the year where fixed income performed just as poorly as equities, we’ve seen a bit of a rebound in the sector in recent weeks.  Below is a snapshot of some major fixed income ETFs from our Trend Analyzer.  Despite YTD declines for just about all of them, the last week has seen gains across the board.  The majority of the ETFs are still below their 50-DMAs, but the fact that they’ve started to ‘disconnect’ from the performance of equities illustrates how investors are starting to worry more about the health of the economy than inflation.

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to read today’s full Morning Lineup.

The Bespoke Metaverse Index – 5/24/22

Bespoke’s Metaverse Index tracks 40 companies with exposure to the continued rollout of the metaverse. We outlined seven components of the metaverse and selected the companies that have either spoken about their metaverse plans or have the capabilities to fulfill metaverse needs within these categories.

Metaverse Index

Bespoke’s Metaverse Index is available at the Bespoke Premium level and higher.  You can sign up for Bespoke Premium now and receive a 14-day trial to read our Metaverse report.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Premium – Monthly Payment Plan

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All Day Rallies A Thing of the Past

It seems like a distant memory now, but Monday’s rally marked just the 13th time all year (and over the last 100 trading days) that the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) opened higher and traded in positive territory all day (‘100% positive day’).  The chart below shows the rolling 100-trading day total number of 100% positive days for SPY since 1994, shortly after the ETF launched.  The current level of 13 is already well below the long-term average of 18, but last week, the reading was even lower at 12.  The last time the 100-day rolling total was lower than that was in May 2009, and the lowest readings ever recorded were in periods beginning in October 2002 and September 2008 with just six in a 100-trading day span.

What makes the current period unique is how quickly the rate of 100% positive days has plummeted.  100 trading days ago, the rolling total was more than twice the current level at 29.  Also, it was only in February 2021 (less than sixteen months ago) that the number of 100% positive days reached a record high of 33 on 2/4/21.  That peak came just weeks before the Federal Government sent out the third and final round of stimulus checks.  Just as massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus helped to support markets during COVID, the withdrawal of these supports has introduced gravity back into the equation.  Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

S&P 500 Positive Territory

Q1 Earnings Season Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2022 and Q4 2021 earnings reporting period.

Q1 2022 Recaps:

Best Buy — Q1 2023

Zoom — Q1 2023

Deere — Q2 2022
Deere (DE) Earnings Summary

Palo Alto Networks — Q3 2022

Target — Q1 2022
Target (TGT) Earnings Summary

Q1 Previously Published Recaps

Home Depot Q1 Conference Call — 5/17/22
Walmart Q1 Conference Call — 5/17/22
Disney Q2 Conference Call — 5/11/22
Roblox Q1 Conference Call — 5/11/22
Simon Property Q1 Conference Call — 5/9/22
Tyson Foods Q2 Conference Call — 5/9/22
Block Q1 Conference Call — 5/5/22
Albemarle Q1 Conference Call — 5/5/22
Cheniere Energy Q1 Conference Call — 5/4/22
Uber Q1 Conference Call — 5/4/22
Starbucks Q1 Conference Call — 5/3/22
Advanced Micro Devices Q1 Conference Call — 5/3/22
Hilton Hotels Q1 Conference Call — 5/3/22
Amazon Q1 Conference Call — 4/28/22
Apple Q2 Conference Call — 4/28/22
United Rentals Q1 Conference Call — 4/28/22
McDonald’s Q1 Conference Call — 4/28/22
Meta Platforms Q1 Conference Call — 4/27/22
Automatic Data Processing Q3 Conference Call — 4/27/22
Chipotle Q1 Conference Call — 4/26/22
Microsoft Q3 Conference Call — 4/26/22
Alphabet Q1 Conference Call — 4/26/22
United Parcel Service Q1 Conference Call — 4/26/22
Whirlpool Q1 Conference Call — 4/25/22
Coca-Cola Q1 Conference Call — 4/25/22
American Express Q1 Conference Call — 04/22/22
Snap Q1 Conference Call — 04/21/22
Pool Corp Q1 Conference Call — 04/21/22
Alcoa Q1 Conference Call — 04/20/22
Tesla Q1 Conference Call — 04/20/22
IBM Q1 Conference Call — 04/19/22
Johnson & Johnson Q1 Conference Call — 04/19/22
JB Hunt Conference Call — 04/18/22
Citigroup Q1 Conference Call — 04/14/22
UnitedHealth Group Q1 Conference Call — 04/14/22
Taiwan Semiconductor Q1 Conference Call — 04/14/22
BlackRock Q1 Conference Call — 04/13/22
Delta Q1 Conference Call — 04/13/22
JP Morgan Q1 Conference Call — 04/13/22
CarMax Q4 Conference Call — 04/12/22
Constellation Brands Q4 Conference Call — 4/7/22
Walgreens Q2 Conference Call — 3/31/22
Micron Q2 Conference Call — 3/29/22
Lululemon Q4 Conference Call — 3/29/22
KB Home Q1 Conference Call — 3/23/22
Adobe Q1 Conference Call — 3/22/22
Nike Q3 Conference Call — 3/21/22

Recaps published during Q4 2021 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription:

Salesforce Q4 Conference Call — 3/1/22
Target Q4 Conference Call — 3/1/22
Zoom Q4 Conference Call — 2/28/22
Moderna Q4 Conference Call — 2/24/22
Home Depot Q4 Conference Call — 2/22/22
Deere Q1 Conference Call — 2/18/22
Walmart Q4 Conference Call — 2/17/22
NVIDIA Q4 Conference Call — 2/16/22
Airbnb Q4 Conference Call — 2/15/22
Marriott Q4 Conference Call — 2/15/22
Advance Auto Parts Q4 Conference Call — 2/14/22
Uber Q4 Conference Call — 2/9/22
Disney Q1 Conference Call — 2/9/22
Chipotle Q4 Conference Call — 2/8/22
Simon Property Q1 Conference Call — 2/7/22
Tyson Foods Q1 Conference Call — 2/7/22
Snap Q4 Conference Call — 2/3/22
Amazon Q4 Conference Call — 2/3/22
Estée Lauder Q2 Conference Call — 2/3/22
Meta Q4 Conference Call — 2/2/22
Ferrari Q4 Conference Call — 2/2/22
Match Group Q4 Conference Call — 2/2/22
Advanced Micro Devices Q4 Conference Call  — 2/1/22
PayPal Q4 Conference Call — 2/1/22
Starbucks Q1 Conference Call — 2/1/22
Alphabet Q4 Conference Call — 2/1/22
United Parcel Service Q4 Conference Call — 2/1/22
Visa Q1 Conference Call — 1/27/22
Apple Q1 Conference Call — 1/27/22
McDonald’s Q4 Conference Call — 1/27/22
Intel Q4 Conference Call — 1/26/22
Tesla Q4 Conference Call — 1/26/22
Boeing Q4 Conference Call — 1/26/22
Automatic Data Process Q4 Conference Call — 1/26/22
Microsoft Q2 Conference Call — 1/26/22
Johnson & Johnson Q4 Conference Call — 1/25/22
3M Q4 Conference Call — 1/25/22
Lockheed Martin Q4 Conference Call — 1/25/22
American Express Q4 Conference Call — 1/25/22
Netflix Q4 Conference Call — 1/20/22
Intuitive Surgical Q4 Conference Call — 1/20/22
Union Pacific Q4 Conference Call — 1/20/22
Baker Hughes Q4 Conference Call — 1/20/22
UnitedHealth Q4 Conference Call — 1/19/21
Fastenal Q4 Conference Call — 1/19/22
Procter & Gamble Q2 Conference Call — 1/19/22
Silvergate Capital Q4 Conference Call — 1/18/22
Charles Schwab Q4 Conference Call — 1/18/22
BlackRock Q4 Conference Call — 1/14/22
JP Morgan Q4 Conference Call — 1/14/22
KB Home Q4 Conference Call — 1/12/22
Delta Airlines Q4 Conference Call — 1/13/22
Constellation Brands Q3 Conference Call — 1/6/22
Nike Q2 Conference Call — 12/20/21

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