The Closer – FOMC Recap, End of Day Selling, Earnings – 5/1/24

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with commentary on the FOMC’s latest decision and the subsequent market reaction (page 1) including a look at the S&P 500’s historic drop into the red to close out the session (page 2).  We then dive into the latest JOLTS, ISM, and construction spending data (page 3).  We finish with a look at the latest EIA release (page 4).

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Bespoke Market Calendar — May 2024

Please click the image below to view our May 2024 market calendar.  This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month.  It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Fixed Income Weekly — 5/1/24

Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class?  Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit each week.  We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week.  We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed-income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea.  We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation, and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1-year return profiles for a cross-section of the fixed income world.

Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates.  You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes for the next two weeks!

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/1/24 – May Day

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” – Warren Buffett

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Many global markets are closed in observance of May Day today, and here in the US, most investors are close to crying “Mayday” after futures are firmly lower following yesterday’s sharp declines.  It’s another busy day of earnings and economic data, and the big report overnight was from Amazon.com (AMZN) which is trading modestly higher.  Several other smaller but notable companies like Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Starbucks (SBUX), and Skyworks (SWKS) are all trading lower, though.  And that’s just the companies that begin with ‘S’!  On the economic calendar, the ADP Payrolls report came in modestly higher than expected, but we still have JOLTS, ISM, and Construction Spending on deck. Also, don’t forget the Fed at 2 PM and Powell’s presser at 2:30.

April has historically been a positive month for stocks but not this year.  The S&P 500’s 4.2% decline was only the weakest April since 2022 (-8.8%), but it was one of only seven Aprils since WWII where the S&P 500 declined more than 4%.  Not only was the S&P 500 down in April, but it also broke a five-month streak of gains.

Five-month streaks of gains for the S&P 500 haven’t been uncommon. Since WWII, there have been 31 prior periods where the S&P 500 posted positive returns for five or more straight months. What made the recent streak unique is that every positive month was a gain of at least 1%, and there have only been nine of those since WWII.

In the charts below, we summarize the performance of the S&P 500 in the one, three, six, and twelve months following the first down month that ended prior streaks.  While futures are lower this morning, and the S&P 500 is entering what has historically been a weak period in terms of returns, bulls can take some solace in the fact that median returns following the end of the prior 31 five-month winning streaks along with the median performance following five-month streaks of 1%+ gains have been better than the average for all one, three, six, and twelve month periods since WWII.

Speaking of a weak period for the market, like the recently ended streak, there have only been three other periods where the S&P 500 was up for at least five straight months and then declined in April. It’s a small sample size, but on a positive note, the S&P 500 was higher one, three, and six months later.  One year later, though, performance was mixed with declines once, a paltry gain of just 2.4% another time, and a massive gain of over 22% following the streak that ended in April 1986.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/30/24 – So Close

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” – Charles Dickens

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures were already lower ahead of the 8:30 release of the Employment Cost Index (ECI), and things have gotten worse since then as the report came in higher than expected (1.2% vs 1.0%). This year started with a high probability of multiple rate cuts as inflation was expected to decline. Now, the probability of even one rate cut has been marching toward zero as inflation remains stubbornly high. Still on the docket for today, we have the FHFA House Price Index at 9 Am followed by the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. Outside of November 2023, which looks more and more like an aberration, the Chicago PMI has been below 50 since the fall of 2022, and with economists expecting a reading of 45.0 today, it’s not expected to get back into growth mode anytime soon.

After an impressive rally last week, push is coming to shove as the major averages face their first major test of the bounce in the form of the 50-DMA.  While the S&P 500 finished the day higher yesterday, it didn’t quite have enough momentum to close back above its 50-DMA even though it traded briefly above that level intraday.

The picture for the Nasdaq looks similar as it closed just shy of its 50-DMA as well.

One reason for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq not reclaiming their 50-DMAs is the fact that Microsoft (MSFT), the largest company in both indices, traded down 1% and finished close to its lows for the day.

It wasn’t all bad news from a technical perspective yesterday, though. After coming up just shy of the 50-DMA on Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) opened just below that level on Monday and managed to break through to the upside on an intraday basis and remain there through the close.

While MSFT has been having its troubles recently, shares of Apple (AAPL) have caught a break over the last six trading days, and the former largest company in the world has rallied over 5% taking it back above its 50-DMA for the first time since late January ending what was the longest streak of closes below the 50-DMA since late 2015.

Read today’s entire Morning Lineup.

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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/29/24 – Yo Yo Yen

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Endure what is difficult to endure and to suffer what is difficult to suffer.” – Hirohito

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It’s been a quiet start to the trading week as equity futures trade modestly higher and US Treasury yields are modestly lower.  The only economic report on the calendar for the day is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report which is expected to improve slightly from last month’s reading of -14.4. Just because the week is starting quietly, though, doesn’t mean it will stay that way.  In terms of earnings, this week is the second busiest of the reporting period, and the economic calendar is also jam-packed with Consumer Confidence, both the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing reports as well as the Employment report on Friday.

While Japanese equity markets were closed for Showa Day, the yen has seen some wild moves overnight. When FX markets opened for trading last night, the yen sold off hard and the USD/JPY cross quickly crossed above 160 for the first time since 1990.  It didn’t stay at those levels for long, though, and buyers stepped in and the yen rallied.  After briefly dropping below 155, the cross is currently trading right around 156.  As shown in the chart below, after breaking above 152 just over a month ago, the yen has become unhinged.

It’s not often that the USD/JPY cross sells off more than 1% in a session and then reverses all those losses and more to finish the day with a rally of more than 1%. Since 1989, that’s only happened seven other times.  In terms of where in the yen’s cycle the seven prior reversals have occurred, there hasn’t been a clear pattern.  The two in the late 1990s came during periods of yen strength (decline in the USDJPY cross), but the more recent occurrences were all clustered right around the end of a sharp rally in the cross (weaker yen).

Continue reading today’s Morning Lineup.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

Bespoke’s Brunch Reads – 4/28/24

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

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On This Day in History:

iTunes: On April 28th, 2003, Apple revolutionized the music industry with the launch of the iTunes Store. For its time, a sleek interface and large collection of songs offered users a convenient way to purchase and download their favorite hits. If you don’t remember those days, digital piracy was rampant, and the iTunes store provided a legitimate alternative to the artists and their fans. Since the launch of iTunes 21 years ago, we’ve seen the rise of digital distribution in other media, including movies, TV shows, podcasts, and books thanks to the road that iTunes paved.

AI & Technology

AI-powered cameras installed on Metro buses to ticket illegally parked cars (Los Angeles Times)
Los Angeles Metro is rolling out AI-powered cameras on its buses to monitor and ticket cars parked illegally in bus lanes. Developed by Hayden AI, these cameras are part of an effort to speed up bus service and make it more accessible, especially for passengers with disabilities who need clear paths to board. Starting with a summer test phase and a full launch expected by the end of 2024, the $11 million project will initially issue warning citations to help drivers adjust. To ensure fairness in enforcement, humans will view the videos to confirm violations before any tickets are issued. [Link]

NASA’s Voyager 1 Resumes Sending Engineering Updates to Earth (NASA)
NASA’s Voyager 1 is back online and sending data after a clever fix by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory team. They worked around a faulty computer chip by reconfiguring the spacecraft’s memory, allowing us to receive updates on its health and status again. This sets the stage for restoring the flow of scientific data. Meanwhile, its sibling, Voyager 2, is cruising along smoothly in interstellar space. [Link]

Elon Musk and SpaceX hit reusable-rocket milestone with Starlink satellite launch (MarketWatch)
Last week’s launch of 23 Starlink satellites marked a milestone as it marked the 300th time that SpaceX has landed a rocket booster back down on Earth after a launch. SpaceX has an ambitious schedule for 2024 with 12 launches planned per month.[Link}

Apple reportedly slashes Vision Pro headset production and cancels updated headset as sales tank in the US (PC Gamer)
Apple has reportedly halved production volumes of its Vision Pro mixed reality headset due to lower-than-expected demand, even before its international release. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests initial demand in the US was tepid, potentially leading to the cancellation of a planned 2025 update. The high price tag of $3,499 and the device’s bulky design likely deterred many potential buyers, despite its advanced technology and sleek interface. The limited appeal of the Vision Pro doesn’t necessarily reflect on the broader market for mixed reality and virtual reality headsets, as its high cost and size make it a niche product. [Link]

Environmental

Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection (Berkeley Lab)
As of the end of 2023, nearly 12,000 projects, totaling 1,570 gigawatts (GW) of generator capacity and 1,030 GW of storage capacity, are actively seeking transmission interconnection in the United States. These projects, dominated by solar, storage, and wind technologies, represent the forefront of the nation moving in the direction of renewable energy. The report provides insights into the challenges of integrating such large-scale renewable resources into the grid, including increasing wait times in interconnection queues and low completion rates for proposed projects. [Link]

The world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with 2024 sales set to reach 17 million (IEA)
This year, EVs are making waves, with more than one in five cars sold globally expected to be electric. According to the IEA’s latest Global EV Outlook, we could see about 17 million EVs sold in 2024. The surge is driven by strong sales in China, the US, and Europe, where policies and lower battery costs are making EVs more appealing. If current trends and policies continue, half of all cars sold by 2035 might be electric. Under optimal conditions, this could jump to two-thirds, dramatically cutting down reliance on oil for road transport. [Link]

Investments

New York Stock Exchange tests views on round-the-clock trading (Financial Times)
A survey from NYSE suggests an interest in round-the-clock trading, as opposed to the 9:30 am to 4:00 pm window we operate in now. 24 Exchange, a startup backed by Steve Cohen, is seeking SEC approval to launch the first 24-hour exchange of its kind. Although he said his traders would adhere to the five-day workweek given regular market hours, Cohen also has invested in golf with the idea that it is only a matter of time before the four-day workweek becomes mainstream thanks to advancements in AI. [Link]

The Average Lifespan of an ETF Just Got a Little Shorter (Bloomberg)
The average lifespan of ETFs has shortened with the closures of two funds this week, the Defiance Israel Fixed Income ETF (CHAI) and the Opportunistic Trader ETF (WZRD). While CHAI struggled to attract assets despite initially strong demand, WZRD garnered $25 million in just one month but still plans to shut down. The closures highlight the challenges and concentration in the ETF industry, particularly in the active ETF market where a few issuers dominate. Investors tend to favor more passive ETFs with strategies closely resembling their benchmarks. In other news, certain ETFs face outflows as geopolitical tensions ease and hopes for Fed interest-rate cuts diminish. [Link]

Policy

Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence (WSJ)
Although no one specifically is quoted in the article, allies of Donald Trump are “reportedly” devising proposals to diminish the Fed’s independence if he secures a second term. Suggestions range from giving Trump a say in interest-rate decisions to subjecting Fed regulations to White House review. Some even propose that Trump has the authority to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair before his term ends in 2026. While Trump hasn’t finalized his approach to the Fed, he’s expressed interest in reshaping its leadership. However, these efforts face legal and institutional challenges, with some Republican lawmakers expressing opposition to presidential interference in monetary policy. [Link]

Population Trends

U.S. birth rate drops to record low, ending pandemic uptick (CBS News)
The birth rate in the US continues to decline, reaching a new record low in 2023, according to the latest CDC report. Approximately 3.6 million babies were born last year, marking a 2% decrease from 2022. This downturn ends a brief rise in births observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. If current trends continue, the US population could shrink without increased immigration or other demographic changes. Teen birth rates have also started to plateau, and cesarean delivery rates have increased. [Link]

Economic Trends

I made $70K selling NYC restaurant reservations — and I don’t even live in New York (New York Post)
Securing restaurant reservations in NYC has become fiercely competitive. A college student earned $70,000 last year by selling reservations for places like Ralph Lauren’s Polo Bar. Reservation resale platforms are also thriving, with one reportedly making $6 million last year. Celebrities like Justin and Hailey Bieber reportedly use these services, with fees ranging from $500 to $1,000. Despite the profits, restaurants are struggling with fake reservations and bots, affecting their business and accessibility for regular patrons. [Link]

US agency poised to ban worker ‘noncompete’ agreements (Reuters)
The FTC recently approved a rule to ban employer noncompete agreements. The decision is intended to promote worker mobility and potentially boost wages by up to $488 billion over the next decade. It also anticipates the creation of over 8,500 new businesses annually. The rule, set to take effect in August, has stirred much debate. Supporters argue it frees workers from restrictive practices that limit job opportunities and suppress wages, especially in lower-wage industries. However, critics, including some major business groups, argue that the rule oversteps legal boundaries and could harm the economy by making it harder to protect trade secrets. [Link]
Vacancies are a Red Herring (Ned Resnikoff)

When discussing housing and homelessness, a common question arises about utilizing vacant apartments to solve the crisis. However, this notion oversimplifies the issue, as many vacancies are short-term or involve newly built, unoccupied units. Moreover, studies indicate that homelessness rates are highest in cities with the lowest vacancy rates, suggesting that a lack of available housing, rather than artificially withheld units, exacerbates both high housing costs and homelessness. Therefore, truly addressing the crisis requires the construction of more affordable housing, not just reallocating existing spaces. [Link]

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Have a great weekend!

Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call Recaps

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps provide helpful summaries of corporate conference calls throughout earnings season.  We go through the conference calls of some of the most important companies in the market and summarize key topics covered by management.  These recaps include information regarding each company’s financial results, growth by segment, as well as some aspects of the business that management expects to impact future results.  We also identify trends emerging for the broader economy in these recaps.

Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps are available at the Bespoke Institutional level only.  You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read our newest Conference Call recaps.  To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:

Bespoke Institutional – Monthly Payment Plan

Bespoke Institutional – Annual Payment Plan

Below is a list of the Conference Call Recaps published during the Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 earnings reporting periods.

Q1 2024 Recaps:

Microsoft: Q3 2024


Alphabet: Q1 2024


Northrop Grumman: Q1 2024


Chipotle: Q1 2024


Meta Platforms: Q1 2024


General Motors: Q1 2024


Tesla: Q1 2024


PepsiCo: Q1 2024


Cadence Design: Q1 2024


American Express: Q1 2024


Netflix: Q1 2024


D.R. Horton: Q2 2024


CSX: Q1 2024


Las Vegas Sands: Q1 2024


United Airlines: Q1 2024


ASML: Q1 2024


Big Banks (JPM, C, GS, BAC, MS): Q1 2024


Delta Air Lines: Q1 2024


Lamb Weston: Q3 2024


Conagra Brands: Q3 2024

RH: Q4 2023

FedEx: Q3 2024

Nike: Q3 2024

Lululemon: Q4 2023

General Mills: Q3 2024

Q4 2023 Recaps:

Williams Sonoma: Q4 2023
Nordstrom: Q4 2023
AeroVironment: Q3 2024
Aaron’s: Q4 2023
NVIDIA: Q4 2024
Walmart: Q4 2024
Home Depot: Q4 2023
Deere: Q4 2023
Generac: Q4 2023
Airbnb: Q4 2023
AutoNation: Q4 2023
Restaurant Brands International: Q4 2023
Shopify: Q4 2023
Cloudflare: Q4 2023
Hershey: Q4 2023
Disney: Q1 2024
Arm: Q3 2024
Uber: Q4 2023
Chipotle: Q4 2023
Spotify: Q4 2023
Simon Property: Q4 2023
Palantir: Q4 2023
Caterpillar: Q4 2023
McDonald’s: Q4 2023
Apple: Q1 2024
Amazon: Q4 2023
Meta Platforms: Q4 2023
Honeywell: Q4 2023
Old Dominion Freight: Q4 2023
Starbucks: Q1 2024
Microsoft: Q2 2024
United Parcel Service: Q4 2023
Alphabet: Q4 2023
Whirlpool: Q4 2023
Super Micro Computer: Q2 2024
Norfolk Southern: Q4 2023
American Express: Q4 2023
IBM: Q4 2023
Tesla: Q4 2023
ASML: Q2 2024
Texas Instruments: Q4 2023
Netflix: Q4 2023
RTX: Q4 2023
3M: Q4 2023
General Electric: Q4 2023
Schlumberger: Q4 2023
PPG Industries: Q4 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor: Q4 2023
H.B. Fuller: Q4 2023
Fastenal: Q4 2023
Big Banks (JPM, C, BAC, GS): Q4 2023
Delta Air Lines: Q4 2024
Constellation Brands: Q3 2024
Conagra Brands: Q2 2024
Lamb Weston: Q2 2024
Walgreens: Q1 2024
FedEx: Q2 2024
Costco: Q1 2024
Brown-Forman: Q2 2024
SentinelOne: Q3 2024

 

 

Recaps published during Q1 2024 are available with a Bespoke Institutional subscription.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 4/26/24 – GOOGL, MSFT, Fizz, Fizz

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Lots of companies don’t succeed over time. What do they fundamentally do wrong? They usually miss the future.” – Larry Page

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Did you feel the breeze yesterday just after the close? Wall Street breathed a collective sigh of relief after the close yesterday, and instead of Alka-Seltzer coming to the rescue it was Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) which both reported strong Q1 results. The gains in these stocks (and others) have helped offset the indigestion from Meta Platforms (META) after the close on Wednesday and Thursday morning’s whiff of stagflation. The only thing standing between now and a good finish to the week for equities was the 8:30 release of Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the PCE Deflator, and then after that, the 10 AM release of the UMich Sentiment report. Regarding the 8:30 data, Personal Income was in line with forecasts (0.5%), Personal Spending was higher than forecasts (0.8% vs 0.6%), and the PCE data was in line with forecasts. Bulls have taken the inline PCE data and run with it as investors had been positioned for a hotter reading.

24 hours ago, we were talking about how the decline in META was on pace to be one of the largest ever single-day declines in market cap on record. Today, it’s the opposite as the 12% gain in Alphabet (GOOGL) is on pace to be the second largest single-day increase in market cap ever. The chart below shows the largest ever single-day market cap increases in individual stocks on record and is based on data from a Bloomberg story in late February when Nvidia (NVDA) set the single-day record with a one-day gain of $277 billion. If these in GOOGL hold throughout the day, it will be the stock’s first entry on the top ten list compared to the four for Apple (AAPL), two for NVDA, and one each for Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT). MSFT is shown in the chart twice, but if the gains in GOOGL hold, the MSFT entry from 4/26/23 will fall off the list.

With its 12% increase this morning, shares of GOOGL are trading at an all-time high of $175. That’s not bad for a company whose critics have been saying fthat the company missed the AI future.

Shifting focus from Technology to the world of Industrials and real “stuff”, Caterpillar (CAT) got plowed yesterday after reporting weaker-than-expected revenues and noting that  Q2 sales would be lower than they were in the same quarter in 2023.  The stock fell over 7% and closed below its 50-DMA for the first time since November 30th.

Yesterday’s decline ended a streak of 99 trading days that the stock closed above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. That ranked as tied with three other periods for the sixth-longest streak of closes above both moving averages in the last forty years. We couldn’t help but notice that five of the eleven streaks shown lasted longer than 90 trading days but shorter than 100.  Something about those streaks not being above to get into triple-digit lengths!

Continue reading today’s Morning Lineup.

For much more analysis of global equities and economic readings released this morning, read today’s full Morning Lineup with a two-week Bespoke Premium trial.

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