With June retail sales due out tomorrow from the US Census, we took a look at how our Bespoke Consumer Pulse data does predicting the release. Below we show the close track between MoM retail sales (ex auto and gas) versus our tracker of consumers’ confidence in their finances. As shown, the correlation recently has been very strong, and our June Pulse data is a helpful guide to where retail sales will come in tomorrow. We do not include June data in the chart below.

In today’s Chart of the Day sent to paid subscribers, we update the above chart to show the forecast direction for June retail sales based on our Bespoke Consumer Pulse data. To view it, please start a 14-day free trial below.