In today’s Chart of the Day available to Bespoke subscribers, we analyze historical levels of the Present Conditions and Expectations components of the monthly Consumer Confidence report from the Conference Board. Not only did overall Consumer Confidence drop in January, but consumer expectations towards the future have plummeted.
In spite of the shutdown, consumer sentiment towards their current situation remained right near the highs of the cycle, falling by less than 0.2%. Relative to the cycle high back in August, this reading is down less than 2%. Where confidence has really taken a hit, however, is in expectations towards the future. That component fell almost 11% in January after a decline of 13% in December, putting it down over 24% from its cycle high in October 2018.
Historically, a big gap in the Present vs. Expectations components of Consumer Confidence has been very telling for the direction of the economy. Start a two-week free trial to any Bespoke membership level to read our in-depth analysis by accessing today’s Chart of the Day.