The Closer – GDP Revisions, 5 Fed Finale, 7 Year Auction – 9/28/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the turnaround in leading industries (page 1) followed by a rundown of the latest revision of GDP data (page 2).  We then look at pending home sales (page 3) before providing a final update of our 5 Fed Manufacturing Composite for the month of September (pages 4-6).  We finish with a recap of today’s 7 year note auction (page 8).

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The Closer – Shorted Stocks Suffer, CFO Optimism, Oil Inventories – 9/27/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with an update on the latest short interest data (page 1) followed by a dive into performance around Federal government shutdowns (page 2).  We then take a look at the latest CFO survey (pages 3 and 4) before finishing with looks at today’s EIA data (page 5) and Treasury auction (page 6).

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The Closer – Nasdaq New Low, New Home Sales, Five Fed Rebounds – 9/26/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start with a look at the Nasdaq 100’s 3 month low (page 1) followed by a dive into the latest Consumer Confidence numbers (page 2). We then show the details of today’s new home sales report (pages 3 and 4) then show an update of our Five Fed Manufacturing composite with the addition of the Richmond Fed (page 5). We finish with a recap of the 2 year note auction held this afternoon (page 6).

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The Closer – ECB Chatter, Duration Collapse, 5 Fed, Treasury Auction Previews – 9/25/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some commentary from ECB officials regarding the path of rates (page 1). We then move to duration pressure and historical drawdowns in long-term treasuries (page 2) followed by a discussion of the move in term premiums and how it has affected real yields and risk assets (page 3). Next, we updated the Five Fed Manufacturing Index based on three of the five September reports that have been released so far (page 4). As shown in the chart below, manufacturing activity is starting to show signs of bottoming.  In tonight’s report, we also previewed this week’s Treasury auctions (page 5) and provided updates on the latest Commitments of Traders report (page 6).

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The Closer – New Yield Highs, Horrible Housing Affordability – 9/21/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some commentary with the latest news from Capitol Hill and the new highs in Treasury yields (page 1). We then check in on the record low housing inventories and show just how bad home affordability has gotten (page 2). Next, we update on the current account (page 3) before closing with a rundown of the latest 10y TIPS reopening (page 4).

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The Closer – Summary of Economic Projections, Inflation Forecast Confidence, EIA – 9/20/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a review of the swings in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections updated today with the latest FOMC decision (page 1).  We also provide commentary on the Fed’s newest policy statement, Powell’s presser, and the terminal rate (page 2). We also review the market’s reaction to today’s FOMC news (page 3) before closing with a recap of the latest EIA data (page 4).  Below is a sample chart from tonight’s report:

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