The Closer – Big Bond Sale, BDC, Housing – 3/10/26

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  • Amazon (AMZN) is the latest IG borrower to tap the bond market for capital for data centers, and today’s tranche ranked as the fourth-largest IG bond sale ever..
  • Business development companies have gotten crushed over the past year resulting in some high yields and extreme valuations.
  • Falling mortgage rates, little changing home prices, and and steady wage growth have benefitted housing affordability.

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The Closer – Crude Craziness, Risk Bounce, Expectations – 3/9/26

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  • Markets continue to try to make sense of the Iran situation, making for a historic reversal today for crude prices.
  • High volatility has showed that it works both ways with both crude and equities rebounding from sizable losses.
  • Preliminary EPA estimates showed that nearly a third of consumer vehicles sold were EVs, hybrids, or fuel cell last year.

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The Closer – Crude Golden Cross, Skew, Productivity – 3/5/26

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  • Front month crude oil is setting up for a golden cross; a technical pattern that has historically played out to be less bullish than its reputation implies.
  • The closure of Hormuz has resulted in extreme upside skew in options markets for crude oil.
  •  Labor productivity received material upward revisions for the past six quarters.

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The Closer – Korea Crushed, Beige Book, Trucking – 3/4/26

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  • Korean stocks have fallen close to 20% in the past three days; one of the largest declines on record.
  • The Beige Book has seen a drop off in the number of mentions of tariffs, uncertainty, and layoffs.
  • The situation in Iran has sent diesel prices exploding higher when trucking per mile prices are already rising rapidly.

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The Closer – Leverage, Oil Vol, KISS Basket – 3/3/26

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  • US equity leverage is currently modest at 0.8x, but bond markets are showing elevated leverage levels.
  • Volatility is rising across assets with crude oil being the most pronounced example as the oil VIX is now at the highest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.
  • The Logistics Managers Index showed significant expansion in transportation prices.

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The Closer – Reversals, LNG and Rates, PMIs – 3/2/26

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  • Today’s morning selloff in stocks appeared to be severe at first, but equities managed to pivot into the green by the close.
  • Energy stocks and prices caught a bid on the latest Iran news while US LNG exports continue to swell.
  • ISM Manufacturing data indicated continued robust activity in the month of February.

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