The Closer – Quarter End Chaos, JOLTS, Consumer Confidence – 3/31/26

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  • The S&P 500’s 2.91% rally today was the second strongest close to a quarter since 1953.
  • Hires fell out in the latest JOLTS data as it made a new low dating back 10+ years if we exclude the COVID Crash.
  • Conference Board data indicated inflation expectations are ramping back up again, showing over 5%.

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The Closer – Tech Wreck, 200-DMA, Valuation Contraction – 3/30/26

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  • Various parts of the Tech sector including prior winners within the AI space and unprofitable companies have gotten hit particularly hard in recent days.
  • Credit spreads made a new high with both investment grade and high yield CDS indices closing at the highest levels since the Liberation Day tariff announcement period last year.
  • Multiple contraction has been experienced throughout the market, from high flying Tech stocks to defensive stocks in the Health Care and Utilities space.

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The Closer – Chart Check, 50-DMA Stops, S&P Streaks – 3/26/26

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  • Thursdays have been the weakest day of the week for the S&P 500 over the past decade, and 2026 has no exception with nine consecutive weeks of Thursday declines.
  • Over the past 50 trading days, the Energy sector has seen some of the highest consistency of daily gains on record.
  • A hypothetical strategy of only owning the S&P 500 when it has been above its 50-DMA has underperformed a simple buy and hold strategy for decades.

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The Closer – Tech Valuations, Rotation, Trade Prices – 3/25/26

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  • Over the past six months the decline in the P/E ratio of Tech versus the S&P 500 has fallen by the largest amount since 2002.
  • Performance this week has appeared to be largely rotational as the best performers were also those that were the worst performers month-to-date through Friday.
  • After seasonal adjustment February saw the third-largest increase in ex petroleum import prices since monthly data begins at the end of the 1980s.

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The Closer – 200-DMA Stop, Terrible 2s, 5 Fed – 3/24/26

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  • Throughout the S&P 500’s history, a hypothetical strategy that goes to cash when the index falls below its 200-DMA has outperformed.
  • Today’s 2-year note auction saw terrible demand; similar to other coupon sales so far in March.
  • Regional Fed surveys showed that there may have been supply chain stress even before the war with Iran began.

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The Closer – Vol, Risk Parity, Construction – 3/23/26

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  • While the VIX continues to trend higher, there are some other signs indicating that volatility may have peaked.
  • Gold has seen a large rise in leverage over the last four weeks whereas the drop in corporate bonds leverage has been 3 standard deviation move.
  • Data center spending climbed to 6.4% of private nonresidential construction spending in January.

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