Oct 31, 2018
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we identify a broad positive technical signal across global equity markets. We also discuss still-rising earnings estimates in the US and Europe, priced rate cuts in the US in the two years starting a year from today, weekly EIA petroleum inventory data, and the employment cost index release today that showed further acceleration in US wage growth.
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Oct 30, 2018
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we look at whether industrials outperformance has been helpful in identifying broader market bottoms. We also note still-high real rates despite the broader fixed income rally in recent weeks. Finally, we dive into housing data released today including Case-Shiller Home Price indices for August and Q3 data on household formation and vacancy rates.
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Oct 29, 2018
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we dive into how Tech is dragging down the market, or maybe more accurately how it isn’t holding the market up like it used to. We also take a look at some very bearish stats related to breadth today, the decline in EEM, and economic analysis in the form of personal income and spending, the last piece of data for our Five Fed Manufacturing index in October, and the outlook for capex spending.
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Oct 26, 2018
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
Below is a snapshot from today’s Closer highlighting positioning of speculators in interest rate futures. If you’d like to see more, start a free trial below.
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Oct 25, 2018
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we look at some notable price action in Ford (F) and the Nasdaq 100 means for stocks going forward. We also review the pickup in earnings reactions, price action in the ten year yield, and the relative performance of Exploration & Production names versus WTI. We then take a look at economic data: durable goods, our Five Fed manufacturing activity index, and advance trade data from the US Census.
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Oct 24, 2018
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we illustrate how October has been one of the most frustrating stock market in history. We also note the US dollar starting to materially outperform equities, another bad sign for risk sentiment. We then move on to housing, with a four page look at housing affordability. Using a detailed analysis involving median incomes, both new and existing home prices, interest rates, and private mortgage insurance costs, we make the case that housing affordability is not facing a significant headwind from interest rate upticks, though there is less scope for appreciation than at other points in history when interest rates were lower or down payments a smaller share of income. We also take a look at the brutal new home sales data today and weekly EIA data on petroleum inventories.
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