Jan 31, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as equities rose once again today to finish January on a strong note, the S&P 500 finally closed in overbought territory (one standard deviation away from the 50-DMA) after not doing so for 79 trading days. We compare this instance to prior periods that the index became overbought after not having done so for an extended period of time also taking a look at the forward returns following these scenarios. Next, we cover what synthetic credit has to say about the current fair value for equities. We follow that up with a look at mutual fund money flows using updated data from the ICI and what the S&P 500’s usual performance is given these types of flows. Turning to macroeconomic data, the BLS released the Q4 employment cost index data which we take an in-depth look at by industry and occupation. We finish tonight’s Closer with today’s strong reading in New Home Sales.
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Jan 30, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the FOMC takes a much more dovish tone with today’s rate decision, we take an in depth look at the significance of not only the language used by the Fed, but also the implications of this much more dovish commentary. We continue to discuss the impact of the Fed’s intended direction in regards to the balance sheet and what this could possibly mean for the economy. Next, we cover the dramatic reaction to the FOMC across asset classes. We finish tonight’s Closer by delving into the latest petroleum data from the EIA.
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Jan 29, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we evaluate the recovery in lumber futures and how this key input for housing can confirm improvements in that industry. Next, we break down the impact of FAANG on the broader S&P 500 from 2017 to late 2018, during the late 2018 downturn, and the subsequent rally. After that, we take a look at today’s release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. To finish, we dig into today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence data and provide reasons why it does not necessarily cause reason to suspect a recession is right around the corner.
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Jan 28, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as equity prices have consolidated recently, we take a look at conflicting price action seen in iron ore’s breakout from consolidation while copper settles into a bit more bearish of a pattern. We then take a look at what this means for Chinese growth which has historically been well correlated to these industrial metals. Next, we take a look at today’s update to the Chicago Fed’s national economic activity. Further in regional Fed data, the Dallas Fed’s activity data was also released today which we use to provide a complete picture for our December Five Fed Manufacturing Composite We finish tonight’s Closer with Brazilian current account numbers released earlier today.
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Jan 25, 2019
Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model. We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.
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Jan 24, 2019
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Looking for deeper insight on markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as equity prices have consolidated recently, we weigh in on whether or not this may be a good thing by taking a look at breadth readings through the 20-DMA and why emerging markets could be a sign of optimism. With one of our favorite leading recessionary indicators releasing today, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator, we give our thoughts on the possibility of a recession. Next, we turn to today’s flash Markit PMI readings for the US. Then we provide an updated look at our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite with the addition of Kansas City Fed data which did not help to show a positive picture. We finish tonight’s Closer with a look at this week’s EIA data.
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