The Closer — Gap Down & Run Higher, Small Caps, Sentix, Prime Age Potential — 5/6/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, as the S&P 500, along with other major indices, saw a significant gap down today of over 1%, regaining much of those losses in today’s trading, we review what these types of gap downs typically mean going forward.  We then turn our focus to small caps, showing which sectors have been outperforming large caps.  Moving on to macro data, we review the growing optimism as seen in Sentix global sentiment surveys. We finish with a dive into prime-age labor data.

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The Closer: End of Week Charts — 5/3/19

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.  We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.

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The Closer — WTI 200-DMA Test, Lowflation, Productivity Puzzle — 5/2/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the bearish divergence between the VIX and the S&P 500 as 2-year notes have become increasingly volatile. We also show WTI’s test of its 200-DMA as well as other similar movements in crude throughout the past 20 years. Switching over to macro data, we then show the divergence of core PCE versus other measures. We also look at today’s release of productivity and cost data. We delve a bit deeper into this to look at what could be driving the increase in productivity. We finish with a recap of today’s new orders, sales, inventories, and durable goods data.

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The Closer — Markets Overreact, Auto Sales Miss, EIA, ICI — 5/1/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we summarize the key points of today’s FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell’s following conference as well as the market reaction across assets.  We move on to the US auto market which is showed some weakness for the month of April. We also look at interest rates on auto loans and auto sales in Canada before turning to today’s big miss in ISM Manufacturing. We finish with our weekly looks at EIA petroleum data and another brutal week of equity fund flows.

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The Closer — Overrated Rebalancing, EURUSD Pop, US Data Dollop — 4/30/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by evaluating the theory that monthly rebalancing has been driving the market at month’s end.  In FX, we then take a look at the dollar’s weakness versus the euro.  Turning to macro data, we review this morning’s release of MNI’s Chicago PMI which is pointing to a questionably bad ISM Manufacturing reading. We also look at today’s pending home sales data and the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices before finishing with an update on the Employment Cost Index.

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