The Closer – Cyclical Breadth, Chicago Fed, FX Activity, Ag Alert – 7/22/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the very strong breadth of the cyclical GIC Level 3 Industry Groups so far in 2019.  Then turning to economic data, we cover the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index which is consistent with slower growth.  Next, we show some developments in the foreign exchange markets including EURJPY sitting at support, the plunge of GBP since May, and the coiling of USDMXN.  One final note covers the very slow pace of corn exports this year.

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The Closer: End of Week Charts — 7/19/19

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.  We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.

Sample

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The Closer – Consumer Cruising, Silver Flying, Leading Index, Five Fed – 7/18/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, in the face of more talks of rate cuts by Fed officials today, we show the strength of the consumer in addition to the strength of silver in recent trading. Next, we look at the only notably weak data point released today: the leading index. After today’s strong Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, we provide an update to our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite.

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The Closer – Media Outperforms, International Data, Beige Book, Housing Starts – 7/17/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick things off with a look at media stocks which have been outperforming in both the US and across the pond in Europe.  We also show the top 20 stocks in the S&P 500 so far this year.  Next, show economic data out of Canada and France including the strength in the two countries’ manufacturing sectors. We then recap today’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book before finishing with looks at this morning’s housing starts and EIA data.

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The Closer – Energy Technicals, Cyclical Silver, Strong Data – 7/16/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we review the technical setup of the Energy Sector ETF (XLE) given the news of tensions easing between the US and Iran, which sent oil prices and the energy sector sliding today.  We also note the breakout of silver over the past couple of sessions and Consumer Discretionary’s outperformance versus the rest of the market. Next, we turn to the dovish turn in Fedspeak with Kaplan and Powell’s statements today.  We finish with a look at today’s data releases including Retail Sales, NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment, and Industrial Production, all of which showed strength and further muddle the reasoning of rate cuts.

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The Closer – VIX Low Into Earnings, Empire Not OK, Cass, Brazil – 7/15/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with this week marking the start of earnings season, we show S&P 500 performance given the levels on the VIX. We also take a look at the rally in EM credit and OEM auto stocks. We then go over some of the details in today’s Empire Manufacturing report that were weaker than the headline number would lead on. After reviewing Cass Transportation Indices, which showed some alleviation to their weakening trend, we finish with a rundown on the economic conditions in Brazil.

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