The Closer – Mean Reversion, Factory Slowdown, Positioning – 6/27/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by showing the mean reversion that equities have been experiencing as well as the dynamic between growth and value (page 1). Next, we preview some of our Consumer Pulse data showing the dire outlook consumers have for the economy (page 2). We then update our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3) and we contrast that with hard manufacturing data (page 4).  We close out with a look at this week’s Treasury issuance (page 5) and an update on some of the big shifts in speculator positioning (pages 6-8).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

The Closer – Commodities Collapse, Copper Cycles, Current Account – 6/23/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a look at the continued widening of high yield spreads as WTI and grain prices fall (page 1).  We then dive into an analysis on bull and bear cycles for copper (page 2) as well as what equities do during those same periods (page 3).  Next, we recap today’s current account data including a closer look at investment income (pages 4 and 5). We follow up with a recap of the 5 year TIPS sale (page 6) and a look at how other data is reflecting news story trends (page 7).

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The Closer – Asset Distribution, Soaring CPI Up North – 6/22/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with the release of the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts, we start out tonight with an update on household wealth (page 1 and 2) followed by a look at the record Canadian inflation print (page 3). Next, we pivot over to credit markets, crude term structure, and high yield energy bonds (page 4). Afterward, we review today’s lackluster 20 year bond reopening (page 5) before closing out with a decile analysis showing which groups of stocks have contributed to least and most to the S&P 1500’s decline during the bear market (page 6).

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The Closer – Rate Sensitive Sectors Torched – 6/21/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out by taking a look at the supply and demand dynamics for petroleum products (page 1) followed by a recap of today’s existing home sale data (page 2 and 3). We then show the disconnect between housing stocks and their EPS estimates (page 4). Next, we dive into another interest rate sensitive sector: autos (page 5).  Afterward, we preview this week’s Treasury sales (page 6) before closing out with our weekly recap of speculator positioning data (page 7-9).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

The Closer – Bear Markets And Recessions: Not Always Together – 6/16/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin by showing the relationships between recessions and bear markets in bonds and equities (page 1). We then take a glance at past times that the S&P 500 has reversed lower by at least 1% after rallying 1% on a Fed day (page 2). Turning over to macro data, we provide an update of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite (page 3) followed by some notes on today’s housing data (page 4).

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The Closer – Fed Targets Gas Prices And Aims For Recession – 6/15/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out by providing commentary on the FOMC’s policy decision and some contradictions offered by Powell (pages 1 & 2). We then show the reaction across assets (page 3). We follow up with an additional note on consumer spending (page 4) before turning to petroleum inventory data (page 5). We finish with a look at the 150 day long streak without an overbought reading in the S&P 500’s 14-day RSI (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!