The Closer – Hyperscalers, New Low in Claims, ECI – 4/30/26

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  • The S&P 500 booked a 10% gain in April for its best month since November 2020, and a big part of that was Alphabet (GOOGL).
  • The Tech sector has ended its longest streak of consecutive closes in extreme overbought territory since November 2019.
  • Initial jobless claims cratered to 189K last week, taking out the lows from the white-hot labor market of the pandemic reopening for the lowest reading since 1969.

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The Closer – Hyperscaler Capex, FOMC, Crude Surplus – 4/29/26

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  • Hyperscaler capex continues to rise at an impressive rate of 80% YoY for the four mega-caps that reported earnings tonight.
  • The FOMC rate decision had four dissents, an unusual level of discord not seen since 1992.
  • There was a surplus in crude net exports for the first time on record last week.

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The Closer – Out of OPEC, Breadth Streak Snapped, Earnings – 4/28/26

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  • The United Arab Emirates announced that they will be withdrawing from OPEC later this week; the U.A.E. is group’s third largest producer with the second largest spare capacity.
  • The S&P 500 snapped a streak of four straight days of price and breadth moving in opposite directions.
  • Conference Board and Case-Shiller data indicated housing activity has begun to bottom out.

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The Closer – Political Performance, Renewable Rally, Auction – 4/27/26

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  • Morgan Stanley (MS) indices tracking political themes in the stock market have seen Democratic outperformance since Inauguration Day.
  • Renewable energy stocks are trading at three-year highs after putting in a long term bottom last spring.
  • 5-year Treasury auctions have tailed or priced at the screws at every auction over the past eleven months, tying all other coupons for the record streak of auctions without a stop through.

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The Closer – Getting Ludicrous, AI Boost, Claims – 4/23/26

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  • 175 stocks have more than doubled year-over-year and now trade with a price-to-sales ratio of more than 10x.
  • Stocks proxying OpenAI have exploded higher by 40% since March 30th.
  • The share of total jobless claims for claimants above the age of 65 rose to a record high in March.

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The Closer – Earnings, Revisions, Data Center ABS – 4/22/26

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  • Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings after the bell with weaker profitability in part because of a litany of massive projects such as Optimus robots, Robotaxi rollout, and more.
  • Since the end of 2024, earnings estimates have risen 25.3% and have accelerated more recently with the 6 month change in the 95th percentile of all periods.
  • After a strong Q1 last year, data center ABS issuance has moderated over the past year.

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