The Closer — Worrying and Wondering — 3/19/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision out of the Fed, we begin tonight’s Closer with a look at interest rates as seen through the 3 month LIBOR and overnight index swaps.  We also take a brief look at the movement in industrial metals to see what this could say about the global economy.  Next, we provide an update of our Beige Book index which has collapsed recently.  We then turn to Europe which has seen credit markets lagging versus their US counterparts.  With the banking sector being in part to blame for this, we finish with a look at the status of Non-performing loans in the Eurozone.

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The Closer — Resistance in the Rearview — 3/18/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, with the 2,816 resistance level now behind us we evaluate how much higher the S&P 500 can run given catalysts like overbought/oversold levels, the VIX, and valuations.  Next, we look at last week’s release of Chinese credit creation which came in at the slowest pace in years.  We then provide a quick update on Brexit before finishing with one of the few US data points today: Cass Freight Volumes and Costs

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The Closer: End of Week Charts — 3/15/19

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.  We also take a look at the trend in various developed market FX markets.

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The Closer — Treading Water, Shorts Sinking, Claims Floating, Fund Flow Flailing — 3/14/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a note on small cap’s drastic underperformance so far this month. As the VIX reached a 100-day low yesterday and again today, we show the returns of the S&P 500 following other times that the VIX has seen these kinds of movements. Next, we highlight an interesting trend in Initial Jobless Claims so far this cycle as the indicator shows some signs of slowing momentum. Staying on the topic of labor markets, we also show the pickup in Continuing Claims which, like Initial Claims, are turning yellow. We finish with a brief look at investors hesitation to reenter equities based on fund flows into mutual funds and ETFs.

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The Closer — Market Gains Continue, Earnings Update, BRIC Strength — 3/13/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss a number of reasons why the BRIC countries look bullish, including nice upside momentum versus the rest of the world.  We also discuss bullish US equity market internals, recent earnings strength, and positive intraday market action.

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The Closer — Boeing in the Penalty Box, Utilities Lead, Miners Bounce, Labor Bites — 3/12/19

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Looking for deeper insight on markets?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we provide a recap of today’s rejection of the Brexit deal and the continued turbulence in Boeing (BA). Next, we break down the S&P 500 industries distance from their 52-week highs. We note that the three industries closest to their 52-week highs are all Utilities. On the other hand, we look at Metals and Mining which currently sits the furthest from its highs, though, we show why the industry is not necessarily unattractive. We finish with a look at today’s release of NFIB Small Business Optimism and CPI.

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