Feb 27, 2024
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“No story has power, nor will it last, unless we feel in ourselves that it is true” – John Steinbeck
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking like a modestly positive open for stocks to kick off the day with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, but the real star of the morning has been Bitcoin where prices are up another 4%+ and briefly topped $57,000. The tone in Asia was also positive after some weakness to kick off the week. In China, 30-year yields dropped to a record low of 2.52% as economic concerns weigh on the country even as the ‘national team’ has been buying up stocks. The tone in Europe has been more mixed but still mostly positive.
Here in the US, Durable Goods Orders will be released at 8:30, and then at 10 AM we’ll get the release of the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence reports.
Last Thursday, 2/22, was the largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in over a year, and while breadth was strong, the S&P 500’s advance-decline (A/D) line finished the day at +399 just shy of the threshold for an all-or-nothing day (days where S&P 500’s daily net A/D reading is at or above +400 or at or below -400) . Through yesterday’s close, 38 trading days into the year, the S&P 500 has yet to have an all-or-nothing day this year. If it doesn’t have one today it will go down as the latest into a year that the S&P 500 has gone without an all-or-nothing day since 2017 and the third longest since 2008 when ETF volume exploded in the post-financial crisis period.
While it is uncommon for the S&P 500 to go this long into a year without an all-or-nothing day, the current streak of 43 trading days without one hasn’t necessarily been strong relative to history. As recently as last August there was a longer streak of 49 trading days, and before that, there were multiple streaks that were longer including a 115-trading day streak that ended in February 2018 with the “Volmageddon” episode.
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Feb 26, 2024
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“I Walk the Line” – Johnny Cash
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a short and extremely limited week of economic data last week, I hope you’re ready for a full week of trading and a busy week of data. Kicking off the week, futures have been little changed as traders await the release of New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed report. Overnight, most Asian equity indices were lower to kick off the week even as Japan bucked the trend to trade at another record high. Europe has also been sluggish in early trading, but overall, the pace of news has been quiet.
Taking a long-term look at the chart of the S&P 500, we’ve essentially seen a textbook breakout. After trading at new highs in late 2023, the S&P 500 successfully tested its breakout level early this year and hasn’t given investors much of an opportunity to get in ever since.
Looking more closely at a shorter-term chart of the S&P 500, it has been “walking the line” of a steep uptrend of higher highs since mid-November, and while the steepness of the trend hasn’t accelerated it has retained its steady ascent.
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Feb 23, 2024
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“I don’t look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over.” – Warren Buffett
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 rose more than 2% yesterday to close at a new all-time high, and as shown below, yesterday’s move pushed most areas of the US equity market up into extreme overbought territory.
Similar to the Nasdaq 100, yesterday was also the first time the S&P 500 had a one-day gain of at least 2% to close at a new all-time high since March 21st, 2000!
The green dots below show the 21 prior times the S&P had a 2%+ gain and closed at an all-time high since 1952. Yep, there have only been 21 prior occurrences over the last 70+ years.
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Feb 22, 2024
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“We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience.” – George Washington
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P and Nasdaq are both set to open at all-time highs this morning, but most notable is Japan’s Nikkei 225, which finally made a new all-time high after 34+ years!
After the Great Depression in the US, the S&P went 25 years without making a new all-time high, and Japan’s equity market beat that streak by nearly 10 years. As shown below, once the S&P finally did make that all-time high in the mid-1950s, it would go on to double in rather short order.
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Feb 21, 2024
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“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.” – Benjamin Graham
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Interestingly, yesterday was the fifth year in a row that the S&P fell on the day after President’s Day, and as shown below, the next month on the calendar has generally been one of the weaker periods of the year:
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Feb 20, 2024
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“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.” – Jensen Huang, May 2017
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are trading slightly lower this morning, while Treasury yields are mostly flat from where they closed last Friday. Walmart (WMT) beat estimates and is trading up a little more than 2%, while Home Depot (HD) beat as well but is trading down about 2%.
While Walmart (WMT) has historically marked the unofficial end of earnings season each quarter, the fact that NVIDIA (NVDA) reports tomorrow means we should probably push that back a day.
NVIDIA (NVDA) has a lot to live up to when it comes to earnings. The stock is up 50% YTD already and now has a market cap of $1.8 trillion. As shown below, the stock has reported an earnings triple play on its Q4 earnings report for four years in a row and seven out of the last eight years coming into its Q4 2023 report tomorrow. Will anything less than another strong triple play be enough to satisfy investors?
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