Aug 14, 2024
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“Talent is never enough. With few exceptions the best players are the hardest workers.” – Magic Johnson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There wasn’t much going on in equity futures this morning as the market awaited the release of the July CPI which came in right on target relative to expectations. Stocks in Asia were mixed with Japan up 0.6% while China was down 0.6%. Yields in China were also lower as the government auctioned off a 20-year bond at a record-low yield. European stocks look more positive with slight gains across the board as GDP came in right in line with forecasts (0.3%) and UK inflation unexpectedly declined.
In financial markets, we almost always emphasize upcoming economic reports and/or Federal Reserve meetings too much. Invariably, the reality of the report rarely lives up to the energy of the anticipation that precedes it. Last month’s CPI report was one of those rare exceptions as market performance practically turned on a dime.
The chart below compares S&P 500 industry group performance on a YTD basis through 7/10 (the close before the June CPI report was released) versus how each group performed since then. Leading up to the report, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 18% on a YTD basis, and since then, it has declined over 3.5%. There has been a clear trend among industry groups where the best performers leading up to the report have been among the worst performers since then while the weakest groups on a YTD report have held up the best since the release.
As an example, the top five performing industry groups on a YTD basis through 7/10 all rank in the bottom ten in terms of performance since then, while three of the five worst performing groups YTD before the June PPI (Consumer Durables, REITS, and Real Estate Mgmt) rank as the top three performing groups since then.
On the upside, only two industry groups rank in the top ten in terms of performance for both periods – Insurance and Telecom Services.
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Aug 13, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“What frightens us today is exactly the same sort of thing that frightened us yesterday. It’s just a different wolf.” – Alfred Hitchcock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Futures were higher coming into the July PPI report and got a further boost after a lower-than-expected PPI report. S&P 500 futures are up over half a percent, and the Nasdaq is indicated to open up over 1%.
The rally in US stocks followed what was a very positive night in Asia and specifically Japan. After Japanese stocks experienced one of the worst single-day declines in history last Monday, the TOPIX has come roaring back over the last week with a gain of 14.7% for its best five-day gain since November 2008 and the fourth best on record (it was closed on Monday). Despite that monster gain, the TOPIX is barely up over the last five trading days (red dot in the chart below).
Zooming in just on periods when the TOPIX rallied more than 10% in a five trading day period, its performance over the last six trading days ranks as the worst on record.
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Aug 12, 2024
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“The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success” – Ian Fleming
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a quiet morning in the markets which is a complete 180-degree turn from last week at this time. Futures are modestly higher, but we have a busy week of economic data ahead and the unofficial end to earnings season when Wal-Mart (WMT) reports on Thursday morning.
It was a whipsaw week for US equities, but you wouldn’t have known if from the snapshot in our Trend Analyzer as no sector was up or down more than 1.7%. There’s a good degree of disparity at the sector level though. While mostly defensive sectors like Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples all finished the week at overbought levels, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Energy, and Materials all finished the week below their 50-day moving averages.
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Aug 9, 2024
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“There are three things in the world that deserve no mercy; hypocrisy, fraud, and tyranny.” – Frederick William Robertson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Since the start of 2022 (when the last bear market began), there have been 26 one-day gains of 2%+, and 23 of those came in 2022 when markets were struggling. Yesterday was just the 2nd 2%+ gain of 2024 and there was only one 2%+ gain in all of 2023. As shown below, the S&P has averaged a small decline of 0.14% on the day after 2%+ up days since 2022 and a bigger drop of -0.39% in the week after 2%+ gains. Over the next month, though, the S&P has averaged a gain of 1.10%.
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Aug 8, 2024
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“If you have someone equal in ability to me I will beat him every time because I will try harder.” – Pete Rose
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Along with NVIDIA (NVDA), Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been one of the poster-childs of the AI Boom. As shown below, though, the bloom appears to be off the rose. Earlier this year, SMCI shot up to $1,200/share, but since then it has now fallen 60%. Shares are currently trading around $480 in the pre-market this morning.
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Aug 7, 2024
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“I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.” – Shaquille O’Neal, who signed with the Orlando Magic on this day in 1992 after being selected first in that year’s NBA Draft
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is an updated look at our 50-DMA spread chart for the S&P that’s featured in our Morning Lineup each day. As shown, yesterday’s bounce barely moved the index higher within its trading range, so we’re still quite oversold here with plenty of upside room to run.
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