Jan 23, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The more people who own little businesses of their own, the safer our country will be, and the better off its cities and towns; for the people who have a stake in their country and their community are its best citizens.” – John Hancock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a shaky start to the year, US equities have more than stabilized over the last two weeks, and whether you’re talking about small caps with the Russell 2000 or large caps like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the major averages are sitting on YTD gains of over 3%. Not bad for just over three weeks! You might be surprised to hear, though, that even with those strong performance numbers, European stocks are modestly outperforming the US on a MTD basis. After accounting for the impact of currency moves, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) is already up over 4.7% YTD.
It’s been a good start to the year for European shares, but they still have a lot of work to do. While the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 have all been in well-defined uptrends, the same can’t be said for VGK which has been stuck in a downtrend since last fall. Not only does it remain in a rut of lower highs and lower lows, but it also isn’t even trading above its 200-DMA.
Jan 22, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” – Francis Bacon
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The positive reaction to earnings reports continues this morning with the most high-profile example being Netflix (NFLX). As noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, historically, the stock tends to respond most positively to its Q4 earnings report, and that was the case once again this earnings season as the stock is indicated to open close to 15% higher taking the market cap well above $400 billion. NFLX isn’t the only example, though, as UAL, P&G, and Travelers are just a few more examples of large companies trading higher in the pre-market in reaction to earnings. The only notable losers are in the Health Care sector where Abbot (ABT) and J&J (JNJ) are down about 2%.
What was looking like a breakdown in the chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) last Monday has quickly reversed. After closing back above its 50-day moving average on Friday, equities picked right back up on Tuesday with additional gains, breaking the string of lower highs and the short-term downtrend that has been in place since early December. We’re still just about 1% off those former highs, but the last five trading days have been a good start, and if the market can continue to react positively to the incoming earnings reports, those highs should be within reach.
Like SPY, some other major indices are playing peekaboo with their downtrends that have been in place since early December. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is an example as it broke its downtrend from the December highs yesterday. Additionally, it didn’t make a higher high yesterday, but based on pre-market trading, it should break that string of lower highs today.
Jan 21, 2025
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“In America, the impossible is what we do best.” – Donald J. Trump
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The presidential stock market performance scorecard starts all over again today, as Trump 2.0 begins. For Biden’s entire presidency, the Dow Jones Industrial average rallied 39.4%, about 18 percentage points less than the four years under Trump 1.0 and more than 100 percentage points less than the 149.4% during the eight years of the Obama administration. While the Dow’s performance under Biden was the weakest of the last three Presidents, it was still nothing to sneeze at, and it caps off a third straight period of strong gains under a Presidential term. The only other periods since 1900 where the DJIA rallied more than 30% under three straight presidents were FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower from 1933 to early 1961 and then Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton from 1981 through early 2001. The most recent period, though, was the only one that included two one-term Presidents.
Let these performance numbers serve as a reminder that as an investor you should never let your politics and investment decisions overlap. In late 2008/early 2009, many investors wanted out of the stock market because of Obama’s views towards business and the economy. Yet during his tenure, the Dow rallied nearly 150%. In late 2016/early 2017 another group of investors wanted out of the market because of all the chaos that came with Trump. Lot of good that did you if you moved to the sidelines. When Biden won the election in 2020, the cycle repeated itself, and now in 2025, it’s probably happening with some investors again.
The Dow’s performance under Biden may have been the weakest of the last three Presidents, but it was still enough to rank as one of the top ten performances of any president since 1900. Coolidge, Clinton, and FDR ranked as the top three all with gains of over 150% while the Presidents who encountered the worst stock market returns were Hoover, Bush II, and Nixon.
Jan 17, 2025
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“You may delay, but time will not.” – Benjamin Franklin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Late last week and early this week we noted how extended the yield on the 10-year Treasury had gotten, and since then we’ve gotten a few cooler-than-expected inflation prints that finally caused the 10-year yield to not only stop going up, but also start pulling back. The pullback in yields has coincided with a rally in equities, but the bulls still have work to do. Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) have made a series of lower highs and lower lows since early December, and we’ve yet to see a break of that trend on the most recent bounce. As shown below, SPY has yet to get back above its 50-DMA and is sitting right below the top of its short-term downtrend channel. QQQ traded above its 50-DMA yesterday morning but pulled back intraday right when it touched the top of its own downtrend channel.
For both SPY and QQQ, one day of solid gains that hold into the close would break the recent downtrend, so we’ll see if the bulls have it in them today.
Jan 16, 2025
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“Mothers are often fondest of the child which has caused them the greatest pain.” ― Victor Hugo, The Hunchback of Notre-Dame
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
With the major inflation reports behind us, today’s pre-market session is much more muted than yesterday. S&P 500 futures are basically flat, while the Nasdaq is indicated to open modestly higher. The biggest of the inflation reports for the week may be behind us, but there’s still plenty of data on the calendar today with the Philly Fed, Retail Sales, Import Prices, and jobless claims all at 8:30 while homebuilder sentiment will hit the tape at 10 AM.
Retail Sales came in modestly weaker than expected, and jobless claims came in modestly higher than forecasts. Unfortunately Import Prices unexpectedly increase rising by 0.1%. But the big surprise was in the regional Philly Fed Manufacturing report which came in at +44.3 versus expectations for a reading of -5.0. That was the biggest beat relative to expectations in that report since at least 1998. The market reaction to all the data has been minimal as S&P 500 futures remain little changed.
Bulls couldn’t have asked for a better way to kick off the first ‘real’ day of earnings seasons as the major financials kicked things off with a bang. Of the six major financials reporting, all six rallied on the day, and all but JP Morgan Chase was up over 5%!
With an average daily gain of 5.74% yesterday, the six financials that reported yesterday had their best average earnings day reaction performance of any quarter since at least the financial crisis. These companies don’t always report on the same day, so it’s not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. Still, it illustrates how strong the reactions to these earnings reports were yesterday (even if a softer-than-expected CPI report helped to goose the returns).
Jan 15, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Mothers are often fondest of the child which has caused them the greatest pain.” ― Victor Hugo, The Hunchback of Notre-Dame
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s CNBC segment, click on the image below.
The last few days have seen a trickle of earnings reports, but this morning, the Q4 earnings season started in earnest with reports from six major banks/brokerages. After a very strong 2024, the banks have kicked off 2025 on a mixed note. Of the six companies reporting this morning, three are up YTD (C, JPM, and WFC), and three are lower (BK, BLK, and GS) for an average YTD change of 0.27% heading into today. Given the mixed returns, they are also all over the place regarding their trading ranges, although most finished yesterday below their 50-day moving averages. The outliers were JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C).
All six of the banks scheduled to report this morning have now hit the tape, and at the headline level, the results were positive relative to expectations. Wells Fargo (WFC) is the only one of the six not to exceed sales results, and all six exceeded their profit forecasts. Given the better-than-expected results, all of them are trading higher in the pre-market with gains ranging from over 3% for WFC to JPM, which is up just fractionally.
The positive results have set the market up for a positive start to the trading day, but we still had to get through the December CPI report. Economists expected the headline reading to increase 0.4% m/m, with the core reading expected to rise 0.3%. At the headline level, the report was right in line with expectations while the core reading came in a tenth lower at 0.2% in what was the first weaker-than-expected core reading since the June report on 7/11/24. In response to the report, equity futures have built on their pre-market gains while the 10-year yield dropped down to 4.70%.
