Mar 11, 2020
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The wild volatility in financial markets continues this morning as the S&P 500 is on pace to give up most of yesterday’s gains right at the open. Where we go from there is anybody’s guess. As we have been noting for some time, volatility isn’t going anywhere in the short-term as headlines drive stocks violently in both directions.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of last night’s Democratic primaries, the latest updated figures on the coronavirus, and a recap of Asian and European markets.
After last night’s Democratic primaries, Joe Biden has all but wrapped up the nomination, and in a head to head matchup for the Presidency, it’s close to a dead heat. Trump’s odds of re-election have dropped to 50% in recent weeks while Biden’s chances have surged as he has racked up delegates.
Mar 10, 2020
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After starting the day limit down yesterday, futures were briefly limit up today but have pulled back a bit. Besides the deeply oversold readings in equities, a catalyst for the surge is the Administration’s promised “very dramatic” actions last night. The White House plans being floated by the President last night include a payroll tax cut and short-term expansion of paid sick leave. Full details are due later today.
For now, markets will continue to trade off fear and headlines, so expect more of the same in terms of volatility.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the moves overnight and this morning, the latest updated figures on the coronavirus, and a recap of Asian and European markets.
Below is an update of our S&P 500 sectors and where they are trading relative to their trading ranges. Every sector is currently oversold, and the only sector that isn’t at ‘extreme’ levels is Utilities. Along with Utilities, the only two sectors not more than 3-standard deviations below their 50-DMA are Consumer Staples and Health Care.
Mar 9, 2020
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Sometimes, there’s not much you can say. US equity futures are trading limit down right now, but the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently down 6.9%, which is a tenth of a percent from tripping the first 15-minute circuit breaker. As global concerns over the coronavirus weren’t damaging enough to economic activity, this weekend’s move by the Saudis to slash oil prices added just another boot on the neck of the economy. Moves that we are seeing right now in equities and other financial assets don’t come around very often, and while they are the result of developing economic conditions and uncertainty, the moves themselves will ultimately also have their own economic impacts.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the moves overnight, the latest updated figures on the coronavirus, the Saudis scorched earth policy regarding oil prices, and how this will all impact the economy.
The price chart of Europe’s STOXX 600 is really something to behold. Less than a month after hitting 52-week highs, the index is now knocking on the door of 52-week lows. It’s rare enough to see this type of a reversal in an individual stock, but for a benchmark equity index of an entire continent, it’s nuts. With a decline of over 3% today, the STOXX 600 is now less than 2% from hitting that level. As we discussed in the Morning Lineup, this is just a further illustration of how before the coronavirus breakout started, the global economy was starting to accelerate.
Mar 6, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
With headlines likely to get worse before they get any better, investors are once again in no mood to buy equities heading into a weekend. Equity futures are down over 2% and getting worse as treasury yields sink like a stone. After breaking below 1% for the first time ever earlier this week, the yield on the 10-year is now at 0.72%.
Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for February came in extremely strong with headline payrolls coming in at 273K versus expectations for a gain of 175K. Unfortunately, all of this data is from early February, so no one is likely going to care.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for the latest stock-specific news of note, updates on the coronavirus, and a recap of economic data coming out of Europe.
The price chart of Europe’s STOXX 600 is really something to behold. Less than a month after hitting 52-week highs, the index is now knocking on the door of 52-week lows. It’s rare enough to see this type of a reversal in an individual stock, but for a benchmark equity index of an entire continent, it’s nuts. With a decline of over 3% today, the STOXX 600 is now less than 2% from hitting that level. As we discussed in the Morning Lineup, this is just a further illustration of how before the coronavirus breakout started, the global economy was starting to accelerate.
Mar 5, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
Futures are sharply lower this morning, but not enough to erase all of yesterday’s gains. Jobless claims were just released and came in 1K higher than expectations (216K vs 215K). Given the weakness in equities, the yield on the 10-year is not surprisingly back well below 1.0%. A lot can change between now and the close, so we’ll see how the day shakes out as the number of cases rise, events get canceled, more schools close, and companies continue to lower guidance.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for the latest stock-specific news of note, updates on the coronavirus, and a discussion of the latest proposed OPEC cuts in oil production.
US futures are lower, and the S&P 500 is already 7.5% from its record close in February. Don’t look now, but one major economy’s equity benchmark saw a 52-week high on a closing basis overnight, and it was China! China’s CSI 300 has now fully recovered all of its losses from the coronavirus outbreak after a 2.5% gain overnight. Now, before you dismiss it all as China propping up its market by prohibiting investors from selling, we would note that the US-based ETF that tracks the index (ASHR) also closed yesterday within 2.5% of its 52-week high. In other words, investors can freely buy and sell the Chinese market.
The US is another story. Equities are still sharply off their highs. Yesterday, we noted the emerging uptrend in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 on an intraday basis. One thing to note about yesterday’s rally is that for both indices, the market closed right before they were able to make a higher high. With both indices now poised to open sharply lower, the first important level to watch is yesterday’s low in the S&P 500 of roughly 3,033.
Mar 4, 2020
Due to unscheduled maintenance issues with our email provider, subscribers may not receive the email of today’s Morning Lineup in a timely manner. We apologize for any inconvenience but we just wanted to let you know that if you did not receive this morning’s copy, it is not related to any changes in your email settings.
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
After positive results for Joe Biden in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries, the former VP has established himself as the current front-runner to challenge President Trump in November. Over at electionodds.com, Biden now has a 75.5% chance of winning the nomination, which is almost a full 60 percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders. Those numbers are certainly comforting for Biden, but we would remind people that as recently as 2/24, the roles were completely reversed with Biden at 5.5% and Sanders over 50%!
The biggest story of the night, though, was that the Democratic primaries have become a two-person race. With poor showings from both Bloomberg and Warren, they are out of the running now as even Hillary Clinton is ahead of them in the betting markets.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of Biden’s impressive performance in Super Tuesday voting, news on coronavirus, global PMI data from the Services sector, and the latest stock-specific news of note.
