Nov 13, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.” – Jim Rohn
With schools across the country either returning or continuing to operate in a virtual manner through at least the end of the year, the above quote is just as pertinent as ever. School is important, but if you don’t continue to teach yourself outside of the classroom, you’re missing the point.
Futures are pointing to a positive finish to the week. On the earnings front, Cisco (CSCO), Disney (DIS), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are all trading higher, but other than that there are no major catalysts to speak of, and the only economic data on the calendar today is October PPI and a preliminary read on Michigan Confidence. PPI came in slightly stronger than expected at the headline level but was weaker than expected on a core basis.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, earnings and market news out of Europe, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
It’s been a strong month so far for equities around the world. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is already up 12.4%, which puts the index on pace for its second-best month in the last thirty years. What makes that even more impressive is the fact that the month isn’t even half over! Despite the surge in European equities, the strength has barely even put a dent in the long-term relative strength of the STOXX 600 relative to the S&P 500. If you look real closely (or at the enlarged chart below), though, Europe is attempting to make a move as the downtrend in relative strength that has been in place all year has recently been broken to the upside. There’s been a lot of false alarms in Europe over the years, but at least it’s a start.
Nov 12, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“I was reading in the paper today that Congress wants to replace the dollar bill with a coin. They’ve already done it. It’s called a nickel.” ― Jay Leno
Equity futures are getting hit relatively hard this morning following continued surges in COVID case counts as hospitalizations have now exceeded their peaks from the Summer. In response, states are instituting more restrictions on movement. While the broader market is lower, Nasdaq futures are bucking the trend and still indicated to open in positive territory as investors rotate back into the stay at home stocks.
Against a backdrop of rising COVID cases, economic data today was generally positive. CPI came in weaker than expected, so maybe instead of a nickel, the coin referenced in the quote above should be a dime instead. In terms of jobless claims, both initial and continuing claims came in lower than expected and fell to their lowest levels since the pandemic.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, economic data out of Europe, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The chart below is from the second page of our Morning Lineup and shows where the S&P 500 is trading on a daily basis relative to its 50-day moving average. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed just shy of levels we consider to be extreme (>2 standard deviations from 50-DMA). This is the same level that the S&P 500’s rally ran out of steam back in early September. While extreme overbought levels hardly mean that a pullback is guaranteed, when the S&P 500 gets to these levels, it’s not uncommon for the market to take at least a short-term pause in order to catch its breath.
Nov 11, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Honor to the soldier and sailor everywhere, who bravely bears his country’s cause. Honor, also, to the citizen who cares for his brother in the field and serves, as he best can, the same cause.” – Abraham Lincoln
Happy Veterans Day. The bond market is closed today, but equity markets are open. With the holiday, though, there is no economic data on the calendar and the earnings schedule is on the light side. Futures are trading higher and for the first time this week, the Nasdaq is actually leading the gains.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, economic data out of Japan, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
On Monday, the S&P 500 spent much of the day in record territory, but a late-day decline pushed the index back below its early September high. Yesterday, the index hung in right below those highs setting the stage today for another run at a new closing high. As far as a record intraday high is concerned, those levels won’t be coming into play at the open.
Nov 10, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” – Kurt Vonnegut Jr.
The whipsaw rotation in the wake of yesterday’s vaccine news once again has cyclical stocks doing relatively well this morning while the technology stocks are getting crushed. What is good news for the broader economy, has actually been bad news for this year’s biggest winners. NFIB’s small business sentiment was unchanged but came in slightly lower than expected. The only other economic data point on the day is JOLTS data at 10 AM.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, discussion of vaccine news, sentiment data in Germany, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
Yesterday was really an interesting day in the equity market. On the upside, 34 stocks in the S&P 500 were up over 20% in a single day, and yet despite those extraordinary gains, all but one of those stocks (EXPE) is down YTD by an average of 36%. More broadly, of the 100 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 only six are up this year- even after taking into account yesterday’s gains. On the downside, there were 22 stocks in the S&P 500 that were down over 5%, and all but one of those stocks are up YTD by an average of 45%. Again, only ten of the 100 worst-performing stocks in the index yesterday are down YTD.
If the majority of the stocks in your portfolio were up yesterday, that’s good news. The bad news is that it also probably means that you were sitting on big losses YTD. Conversely, it’s never fun to look at a portfolio of stocks that’s down on a day when the market is up. The good news, though, is that if you’ve been hanging onto those names for a while now, you probably haven’t seen a lot of days like yesterday.
Nov 9, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“The fear, not the disease, threatened to break the society apart.” – John M. Barry, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
Futures were already looking to continue their big rally from last week earlier this morning, but the news that Pfizer’s COVID vaccine showed 90%+ effectiveness against infection has the S&P 500 indicated to open up over 4%! Not everything is rallying on the news, though. While the Nasdaq is also indicated to open up on the day, the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID economy are being sold en masse as investors rotate into the re-opening trades. Just as fear of the pandemic sank markets back in March, hopes for a vaccine are having the reverse effect.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, discussion of vaccine news, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
What a wild morning for the market. There’s still a lot of time left in the day, but the S&P 500 is up over 4% in the pre-market while the Nasdaq is barely higher. If this performance gap continues throughout the trading day, it will be the widest margin of outperformance for the S&P 500 relative to the Nasdaq in nearly 20 years (1/2/01). Going back to 1990, there have only been nine other days where the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq in a single day, and they all occurred between March 2000 and January 2001.
Nov 6, 2020
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week free trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your free trial.
“Happiness does not come from a job. It comes from knowing what you truly value, and behaving in a way that’s consistent with those beliefs.” ― Mike Rowe
There wasn’t much dirty about today’s jobs report. Non Farm, Private, and Manufacturing payrolls all topped expectations while the unemployment rate fell to 6.9% compared to forecasts for a level of 7.6%, Even the underemployment rate was less than expected at 12.1% compared to forecasts that were closer to 13%. All in all, a very good report relative to expectations, and that has been reflected in the futures market where rates are higher and equities are rebounding.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, election analysis, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
You would think that after the week we’ve had in the market that the market and every sector would be trading at overbought levels, but as shown from page two of our Morning Lineup below, that isn’t quite the case. Three S&P 500 sectors currently remain in neutral territory, while Energy is closer to oversold than overbought! Also surprising is the fact that Technology is still one of the three sectors that aren’t overbought. Normally, after a rally like we’ve seen in the last week, Technology would be leading the charge, but that hasn’t quite been the case this week.
