Bespoke’s Morning Lineup — 8/10/21
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“All that glitters is not gold.” – William Shakespeare
It’s a relatively slow news morning in equity markets. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are indicating a slightly higher open, while the Dow 30 is set to open slightly lower. Bitcoin is down 1% while gold and oil are bouncing back a bit after trading deeply oversold (more on that below). The 10-year yield is up slightly after crossing above 1.3% yesterday.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including key earnings reports out of Europe and the latest US and international COVID trends.
Also, make sure to check out our Daily Sector Snapshot.
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) appears ready to break out of the downtrend it has been in since peaking in the first quarter. Over the last two months, ARKK has managed to make a series of higher lows and is now just above the “flag” pattern that has emerged.
Given its 10% weighting in the ARKK ETF, Tesla (TSLA) has had a lot to do with ARKK’s broader move. As shown below, TSLA has also broken out of its downtrend in recent weeks.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/9/21 – Happy Mondays
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” – Warren Buffett
We felt that another Warren Buffett quote was in the cards this morning given that Berkshire reported earnings over the weekend. Shares of BRK/B are trading up 1% in the pre-market, so thus far it appears that investors liked what they saw out of Omaha.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including key earnings reports out of Europe and the latest US and international COVID trends.
Also, make sure to check out our Daily Sector Snapshot.
The dog days of August are here, so enjoy it while it lasts. As shown in the chart below of the average absolute daily change of the S&P 500 throughout the calendar year, we remain in a period of low volatility from a seasonal perspective, but things start to really ramp up once we get to September.
Monday mornings aren’t known for bringing out a lot of cheers and joy, but for the market at least, Mondays have been strong lately. As shown below, over the last 12 months, Monday has actually been the best day of the trading week for the S&P 500 with an average gain of 0.23%.
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/6/21 – Heads We Win, Tails We Win
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Not only our future economic soundness but the very soundness of our democratic institutions depends on the determination of our government to give employment to idle men.” – Franklin D Roosevelt
Economists are expecting to see this morning that the US economy put nearly 900K formerly idle men and women back into the workforce, but after Wednesday’s disappointing ADP report, that’s not such a sure thing anymore. Heading into the report, futures are eerily quiet as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 are all very close to the unchanged level. What makes the quiet even more notable is that yesterday was one of the busiest reporting days of the earnings season. Even bitcoin is down less than 1%. Oh well, it is a Friday in August. Aren’t markets supposed to be quiet? Once the report is released, we’d expect to see some increased movement in futures as a strong report will likely make the case for an earlier taper from the FOMC, while an ADP-like miss would push that timeline out further.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including some trends related to employment heading into today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Not only has it been a quiet morning in the market, but the last week hasn’t exactly been a thriller. As shown in the snapshot below of major US index ETFs, not a single one has moved up or down 1% in the last week, and outside of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), none have actually even moved more than 0.50%. You can all see this in the trading range chart to the right where the only ETF where a ‘tail’ is even visible is in the Dow Jones (DIA). One other thing worth mentioning is that for all the talk about divergences between YTD performance, most index ETFs are up between 15% and 20% YTD. The only real outlier is the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is up a mere 13.6% YTD. We think this illustrates what have been smooth rotations within the market as leadership shifts.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/5/21 – Futures Higher After Earnings Deluge
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“Tides do what tides do – they turn.” – Derek Landy
Futures are higher heading into the open and are little changed following the latest release of jobless claims. While Wednesday’s ADP report was a disappointment, jobless claims were generally positive. Initial claims were essentially right in line with forecasts, and at a level of 385K are within 20K of the past-COVID weekly low. On a continuing basis, claims finally dropped below 3 million to 2.93 million. This week’s decline of 366K was also the largest one-week drop in claims since last November.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including a recap of German Factory Orders, some key earnings reports from around the world, the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
After a bounce off its mid-July lows when it was down 10% from its 52-week high, the Russell 2000 ran out of steam right at its 50-DMA to close out the month of July. So far, August hasn’t been particularly friendly to small caps. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both comfortably higher this month, the Russell is already down over 1%. Over the next couple of days, investors will be watching that index closely to see if the low from mid-July can hold.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 8/4/21 – Jobs Stall
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The most important investment you can make is in yourself.” – Warren Buffett
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury continues to crater this morning following the much weaker than expected ADP Private Payrolls report. As of this writing, the yield is down to 1.14% which is a level that most investors probably thought they would never see again back in early April. Coming up at 10 AM, we’ll get the latest read on the Non Manufacturing sector from ISM. Contrasting the weaker than expected economic data, earnings news has been mostly positive but hasn’t been strong enough to push futures into positive territory.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including a recap of SEC Chair Gensler’s comments related to crypto, the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Semiconductors have been trading in a range of a little over 20% for all of 2021, but as we noted in last week’s Bespoke Report, the group looked to be making a breakout attempt to close out the week. This week, that upside move appears to have been confirmed as the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has traded further outside of its 2021 range. Going forward, look for the top of that former range to act as support in any pullback.
