Jun 30, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It would be good to be a fake somebody rather than a real nobody.” – Mike Tyson
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The market enthusiasm that took the S&P 500 to new highs last Friday has followed through to the new week as the S&P 500 looks to gap up about 0.5% at the open. Financials are leading this morning’s gains as the Fed announced last Friday that all of the banks passed the stress tests. Goldman Sachs (GS) is leading the way with gains of over 3%, but all of the other major banks and brokers are up around 1% or more.
The only economic indicators on the calendar this morning are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. Washington will be a focus for the market today as investors look to see if the Senate can pass a version of the GOP tax bill.
Last Friday’s close in the S&P 500 marked the first new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 in over four months and now fully puts the tariff-induced near-bear market in the rearview mirror. It also completes one of the more stunning market cycles where the S&P 500 experienced one of its sharpest sell-offs from an all-time high on record, followed by one of its swiftest rebounds.
With the new high, we can also resume the count of new all-time closing highs for the S&P 500, which for 2025 now totals four. That may sound like a meager number, but two months ago, the thought of new highs for the S&P 500 seemed like a pipe dream. With roughly 125 trading days left in the year, we’re unlikely to get anywhere near last year’s total of 57 record closing highs this year, but you have to start somewhere.
Jun 27, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“If we really want to know who is responsible for the mess we’re in, all we have to do is look in the mirror.” – Ross Perot
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Less than three months after President Trump unleashed “Liberation Day” on the world and sent the S&P 500 plunging by nearly 20%, a new phrase has made its way back into the lexicon: new highs. Equity futures are higher this morning, with the S&P 500 trading at record highs following a strong session in Europe. Treasury yields and crude oil are modestly higher, while gold is plunging over 1% as investors continue to exit safe-haven trades.
For these new highs to hold through the closing bell, we still have to navigate a decent amount of economic data for a summer Friday with reports of Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE at 8:30, followed by Michigan Sentiment at 10 AM. The 8:30 data was mixed but mostly in the wrong direction. Personal Income came in sharply weaker than expected, falling 0.4% versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Personal Spending fell 0.1% compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1%. On the inflation front, headline PCE was right inline with expectations at 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y, but the core reading was a tenth higher than expected on both a m/m and y/y basis at 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. The initial reactions to the data have been pretty muted.
Looking at US equity market performance, we were struck by how uniform the gains have been over the last five trading sessions. All fourteen of the index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer screen have gained at least 2%. At the top of the list, both ends of the market cap spectrum are represented with Microcaps (IWC) up 3.4% while megacaps in the Nasdaq and S&P 100 are the second and third best performers with gains of 3.26% and 2.90%, respectively. Relative to their short-term trading ranges, all fourteen index ETFs are at similarly overbought levels, and they are all at least 4% above their 50-day moving averages. The only area that returns haven’t been uniform is on a YTD basis, where the Nasdaq 100 is up 6.8% while small caps are in the red.
Jun 26, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.” – JK Rowling
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
New highs for the S&P 500 are increasingly coming up on the horizon as the S&P 500 is on pace to open within 0.5% of its record closing high in February, but between here and there, we have a slew of data and Fed speakers to get through. Leading up to those reports at 8:30 and 10, Treasury yields are fractionally lower, while crude oil and gold are fractionally higher, and the dollar is lower.
FedEx (FDX) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, and despite better-than-expected EPS and sales, the stock fell 3.3% in reaction to its report on Wednesday. The table below shows how FDX has reacted to earnings over the last four years, and the results haven’t been positive. Over this period, this week’s report was only the third time FDX reported better-than-expected EPS and sales for the same quarter. While the company has reported better-than-expected EPS 10 times in the last 16 quarters, it has only exceeded sales forecasts six times. The company’s inability to consistently exceed expectations, particularly in terms of revenue, suggests that management has a significant problem in managing Wall Street’s expectations. It also appears that investors have become increasingly frustrated with the company, as the stock has now experienced four consecutive negative reactions to earnings.
The one-year price chart of FDX also doesn’t look good. Each of the red arrows below indicates when FDX reported earnings. Even outside of those four days, the stock has seen a steady slide lower, falling from over $300 to the low $200s. For years, FDX was considered a leading indicator for the economy as its transportation network was among the largest in the world. A slowdown in FDX’s business signaled a slowdown in the economy and vice versa. Given that logic, should investors be concerned about the ongoing weakness in FDX’s results and share price reaction?
Jun 25, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.” – George Orwell
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Maybe it’s the summer heat, but after two days of solid gains, futures are listless this morning with the major averages showing little change in either direction. In Europe, major equity averages are flat to lower, with the UK unchanged, Spain is down over 1%, and the STOXX 600 trades 0.3% lower. After two days of sharp declines, Crude oil is looking at a gain of nearly 1% while gold is marginally higher and Bitcoin is back above $107K. In the Treasury market, yields are slightly higher.
Today’s economic calendar is light. New Home Sales is the only report (10 AM) on the calendar, and Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate this morning as well.
As geopolitical pressures eased yesterday, gold prices have seen a modest pullback with the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) falling just over 1.5%. Given the sharp decline in crude and the rally in stocks, you might have expected to see gold see an even sharper drop. However, as shown in the chart below, prices have been moving sideways for the last two months as they never really rallied as tensions started to simmer leading up to the past weekend. With the sideways action over the last two months, GLD’s 50-day moving average (DMA) has been in a game of catch-up to prices, and were it not for a bounce late in yesterday’s session, GLD would have closed below that level.
With GLD managing to hold onto its 50-DMA, it extended its streak of closes above that level to 114 trading days, which ranks as the second-longest since the ETF’s launch just over 20 years ago. The longest streak lasted 140 trading days and ended in March 2008, while the only other streak of more than 100 trading days ended in January 2011. For GLD’s current streak to reach a record, it would have to extend through August 1st.
While gold has been consolidating monster gains from the prior several months, platinum only recently got involved in the party, but it has been making up for lost time. This month alone, the commodity is up 25% after breaking above resistance in late May.
Jun 24, 2025
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“I start early and I stay late, day after day, year after year, it took me 17 years and 114 days to become an overnight success.” – Lionel Messi
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Investors may have been puzzled by the lack of any material weakness to kick off the week yesterday, but news overnight of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was likely what the market was sniffing all along. Following yesterday’s intraday rebound, equity futures are indicated to open sharply higher, even as they have given up some of their prior gains. The key to watch today will be how the market trades throughout the trading session. Can it build on the early gains, or will investors look to take profits?
Besides the Mideast crosscurrents, investors will also have to contend with some economic reports, including the 10 AM releases of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing report (expected to weaken modestly) and Consumer Confidence, which is expected to build on last month’s much better than expected report. Besides the data, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak, with the most notable being Chair Powell when he testifies at 10 AM to the House Financial Services Committee. We’ve already seen three members of the FOMC strike a more dovish tone than Powell (Bowman, Goolsbee, and Waller), so will he dig in his heels or strike a more dovish tone? There’s only so long that tariff-induced inflation can be a ‘tomorrow’ story.
After rallying as much as 1.3% intraday yesterday on the back of a rally in crude oil, the S&P 500 Energy sector sold off over 4% on an intraday basis in what turned into a wild intraday range, even in a sector known for its volatility. The result was what technicians call an outside day, where the intraday high exceeds the intraday high of the prior session while the intraday low is below the prior day’s intraday low. Not only was yesterday an outside day for the Energy sector relative to the prior session, but it was also an outside day relative to the sector’s range over the prior five trading days! This morning futures are continuing the weakness from Monday as WTI trades down over 3.5% to just under $66 per barrel.
Days when the Energy sector’s intraday range exceeds the trading range of the sector’s prior five trading days have been very uncommon. While there was another similar “Mega” Outside Day for the sector back in March, since 1990, there have only been six other such days. There was one in April 2024, but before that, you have to go back to October 2018 to find the next occurrence. The chart below shows each of those prior “Mega” Outside Days. Outside of the first two in May 2003 and March 2005, all of the other occurrences have taken place during the 10+ year period where the sector has essentially been rangebound as the sector is at the same levels now as it was in 2008.
Jun 23, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“At some stage therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control.” – Alan Turing
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We can all give good rationalizations of why futures have seen such a muted reaction to the Iran news over the weekend, but isn’t that the way hindsight always works? If you had asked anybody to predict how markets would react to a US bombing of targets in Iran, no one would have said a gain of less than 1% in crude oil and no change in S&P 500 futures.
This morning’s muted reaction to the weekend’s events is also a microcosm of the market’s YTD performance. Heading into the final week of the first half, there has been no shortage of market catalysts and subsequent volatility, but here we are with the S&P 500 little changed (up less than 1.5%) on the year. Since WWII, 2025 ranks as just the 12th time (out of 81) that the S&P 500 has been up or down less than 2% heading into the final week of the first half.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during the last week of the first half in each year since 1945. Overall, the median performance has been a decline of 0.13%, with positive returns just 51% of the time, so it hasn’t typically been a positive week for stocks. More recently, performance has been even weaker with negative returns in nine of the last eleven years and a median decline of 0.29%.
