Mar 30, 2026
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“The circumstances of the world are so variable that an irrevocable purpose or opinion is almost synonymous with a foolish one.” William H. Seward
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After a rough finish to the week for bulls last Thursday and Friday, futures are looking to rally this morning after the President posted that “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made.”
As optimistic as those statements are, the President has made a habit of making positive early-week comments to try and soothe the market. It’s become so predictable that the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament posted on X last night that “ Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.” So that’s where we are now.
Regardless of the investment advice from Iran, futures remain positive with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both indicated to open up 0.6%, even as crude oil is higher (but off the overnight peak). Treasury yields are also sharply lower as the 10-year yield dips down to 4.37% from 4.44% last Friday. Gold prices are also 1.4% higher, and both moves could be taken as a sign that investors are becoming more aware of potential recessionary risks if the war drags on.
In economic data today, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing is the only report on the calendar, and economists expect a modest rebound from last month’s modestly positive report.
US futures may be higher this morning, but it was a rough night in Asia, with the only green shoot being China, where the Shanghai Composite eked out a 0.2% gain. Other indices in the region were all down roughly 1% or more, with the steepest declines coming in South Korea (-3.0%) and Japan (-2.8%). The yen briefly slumped to its lowest level versus the dollar in nearly two years, but rebounded to finish off its lows of the day after BoJ officials hinted that intervention could be on the way.
European equities are in a more jovial mood this morning as the STOXX 600 trades up 0.4% in the early going, while the FTSE 100 leads the region with a gain of 0.9%, but the rally has been broad with every major benchmark in positive territory, at least for now.
The S&P 500 traded down another 2.1% last week, extending its weekly losing streak to five and taking the total decline over this period to 7.8%. After breaking below its 200-day moving average the week before last, the intensity of selling picked up steam last week, taking the S&P 500 down to the lowest level since August 7. For anyone who argued that the market had gotten ahead of itself and needed a rest late last year, you got what you wanted. Despite all the weakness, though, the S&P 500 is still more than 30% above its intraday tariff-tantrum low from last April.
The current five-week losing streak in the S&P 500 ranks as the first such streak for the index in nearly four years (May 2022) and the 30th such streak since 1953, when the five-day trading week in its current form started in late 1952. With a decline of 7.8% during the last five weeks, the current decline has been less than the average of 8.4% for all streaks since 1952. The deepest decline was 17.5% in June 1962, while the mildest was in July 2004 when the S&P 500 declined just 3.1%.
The long-term chart of the S&P 500 below shows when each prior streak occurred with a red dot. It’s interesting to see in the chart how these streaks were relatively common for much of the period from the early 1950s up through the Financial Crisis. Since the end of 2008, though, there have only been two other streaks in the last 17 years. Finally, in terms of whether these types of streaks represent buying opportunities or not, a look at the chart shows an inconclusive picture. Some of these streaks marked short-term lows for the market, but several others occurred right in the middle of longer-term downtrends.
Mar 27, 2026
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“If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.” – Quentin Tarantino
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s another one of those days where futures drift lower throughout the morning as traders follow the new daily routine of getting up, brushing their teeth, and clicking “Sell”. At 5 AM on the East Coast, when most of us were still asleep, futures were flat to marginally higher, but they have steadily lost steam all morning, and the S&P 500 is on pace to gap down 0.4%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.6%. Barring a major reversal during the trading day, the Nasdaq is poised for its 10th down week in the last 11. That consistency to the downside has only been seen in a handful of other periods throughout the index’s history.
Treasury yields are higher, with the 10-year yield up 4 bps to 4.46%, and WTI crude oil is up another 2.5% to just under $97 per barrel. That increase comes after President Trump said he would extend the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 10-days because talks were “going very well”. While that looks bullish on the surface, it’s been taken as either a sign that the President is just buying more time to launch a ground invasion, or that talks are not going anywhere and the President is just stalling. The reality is that only a handful of people really do know, so investors are using the uncertainty as an excuse to sit things out.
On a more positive note, it looks like the government shutdown will end today, which should alleviate some of the pressure at US airports. Isn’t it ironic that after more than 40 days without paying TSA employees and subjecting people across the country to airport delays, Congress finally reached an agreement just in time for their two-week vacation? The idea that members of Congress are ‘public servants’ is starting to feel like the ultimate oxymoron; unless, of course, the public they’re serving is just each other.
In Asia overnight, most major equity benchmarks were lower on the session, although Hong Kong and China managed fractional gains. Outside of Australia, though, every other equity market was down for the week. In Europe, it’s much weaker with the STOXX 600 down 1.4%, putting it into the red for the week, and most individual country indices are down at least 1% on the day.
With yesterday’s decline, the S&P 500 is now down 7.5% from its intraday high earlier this year, putting it increasingly closer to correction territory. Of the 25 industry groups within the index, 16 closed at least 10% below their respective 52-week highs (on an intraday basis), and four of those are down at least 20%, putting them in bear market territory based on the 20% definition. Leading the way down, Real Estate Management has lost more than 35% of its value, but the most painful of the declines, given its weighting in the index, is Software, which is down by nearly a third.
On the positive, or less negative side, three groups closed within 5% of their respective highs yesterday, with the most obvious being Energy.
The rally in the Energy sector has reached historic proportions in the last few weeks. Over the last three months, the sector has rallied more than 38%, which ranks in the 99.5th percentile compared to all other periods since 1990. As shown in the chart below, the only times it experienced a larger rally were coming out of Covid and early in the Russia-Ukraine war.
What’s even more impressive about the sector’s rally is that it came as the overall market declined. With the S&P 500 down over 6% in the last three months, the 44.4 percentage point performance spread between the two has only been wider for a brief period in March 2022. Outperformance of this magnitude on the part of the Energy sector is nearly unprecedented.
Mar 26, 2026
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“When we have computers that can do more and more jobs, it’s going to change how we think about work. There’s no way around that. You can’t wish it away.” – Larry Page
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s no joy in Marketville this morning as investors step up to the place for the opening bell. Nasdaq futures are down nearly 1% while the S&P 500 faces a gap down of 0.75% at the open. Treasury yields are higher across the curve, WTO and Brent crude oil are both up over 4%, gold is down 2.5%, and Bitcoin is down over 2%. Fun morning for the bulls!
With the five-day deadline imposed by the President, Monday fast approaching, and no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough, investors have no incentive to make a stand, and that doesn’t even take into account the government shutdown snarling air traffic. Maybe the only good news is jobless claims. Initial claims came in right inline with expectations, while continuing claims were well below forecasts, falling to a nearly two-year low.
In Asia, stocks reflected the pessimism as the Nikkei fell 0.3%, China declined 1.1%, and South Korea dropped the most, falling 3.2%. European stocks are doing no better. The STOXX 600 is down 1.0% halfway into the session, led lower by Germany and the UK, which are both down over 1.25%. ECB council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel even noted that a rate hike in April is “certainly an option”.
We’re now a month into the war in Iran, where every day’s news has shown images of precise strikes against the Iranian military. With all those weapons, it must be great for the defense contractors, right? Ironically, while aerospace and defense stocks performed well over the last year, they’ve seen a sell-the-news reaction since the war started. As shown in the chart of the iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) below, the sector peaked on the first trading day after the first missiles were launched and has declined 10% since. That’s worse than the S&P 500!
Looking through a list of ITA’s 13 largest holdings (all greater than 2% weighting), performance this year has mostly been positive. Nine of the thirteen stocks are up YTD, with an average YTD gain of just under 9%. Like the ETF, though, most of the largest holdings are below their 50-DMAs. In total, their average 50-DMA spread is -4.2%, and they’re down an average of 2% in the last five trading days.
While defense stocks have struggled this month, Energy stocks have been on fire. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (XLE) started to go parabolic at the turn of the calendar and hasn’t looked back since.
The rally in the sector has been so strong that the spread between XLE’s price and 200-DMA exceeded 30% this week. Since the ETF’s inception in 1999, there have only been a few other periods where the spread exceeded 30%. The most recent was early in the Russia-Ukraine war, and before that, the only other occurrences were in the first half of 2021 as the economy reopened from Covid and then briefly in early 2011 when oil prices spiked due to the Arab Spring and a civil war in Libya.
Mar 25, 2026
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“It’s the rough side of the mountain that’s the easiest to climb; the smooth side doesn’t have anything for you to hang on to.” – Aretha Franklin
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey appeared on Fox Business yesterday. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Global equity markets are in rally mode this morning after reports of potential negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war. Asian markets surged overnight, and that flowed into the European open and US futures this morning. Some of the air has come out of the balloon as we type this, though, on reports that Iranian officials have rejected the US terms delivered via Pakistan. There’s really no way to know at this point what the facts are regarding the state of negotiations, as neither side has any real incentive to conduct talks via the press, so expect more whipsaw action as things continue to progress. The bottom line is that while Iran still holds some cards, the chips are stacked heavily against them.
Outside of equities, the 10-year yield is down 5 bps, crude oil is down 5%, gold is up nearly 4%, and Bitcoin is up 2.5% to more than $71K.
In economic data, the only report on the calendar was Import Prices, which came in at more than double expectations (1.3% m/m vs 0.6%). If you’re looking for lower rates or a dovish Fed, these are not pretty numbers.
The S&P 500 finished down 0.37% yesterday, but most of the losses were focused in the trillion-dollar stock club, where the damage was much more concentrated. While the ‘average’ stock in the S&P 500 traded slightly higher yesterday, seven of the nine stocks in the trillion-dollar club traded lower, with an average of 1.2%. Stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were notably weak with declines of more than 2.5%, and both closed at multi-month lows. Other mega-caps like Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) all fell more than 1%. The only mega-caps to buck the trillion-dollar market cap weight were Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL), which saw modest gains.
While the trillion-dollar stocks have been market leaders, they’re no longer the cool-kids table in the lunchroom. For months, they stood out above the rest of the market as the most popular in terms of where they were trading relative to 52-week highs, but now they no longer stand out. MSFT, AVGO, META, and TSLA are all down more than 20% from their respective 52-week highs, and the average drawdown from their peaks is just over 20%. That’s flirting with bear market territory and slightly more than the average 19.9% drawdown for all 500 stocks in the S&P 500.
The cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) closed down just over 4% for the year yesterday, while the equal-weight version (RSP) is still slightly higher on the year (+0.2%), and their charts have two key differences.
First, as we’re all aware, the cap-weighted S&P 500 has been stuck in a sideways range for several months, forming a gradually curving, rounded top which accelerated when the war started at the turn of the month. The topping process for RSP was much sharper. From the start of the year right up until late February, RSP was steadily making new highs. Once the war broke out, though, the rally was stopped in its tracks, erasing two months’ worth of gains in less than a month.
Second, with RSP still holding on to gains for the year, it has also stayed above its 200-DMA. The same can’t be said for the S&P 500, which broke that level last Thursday. For now, bulls can rationalize SPY’s break of the 200-DMA by pointing to RSP still hanging on to that level. If both indices break that long-term average, though, bulls will have one less arrow in their quiver.
Mar 24, 2026
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“I don’t trust society to protect us, I have no intention of placing my fate in the hands of men whose only qualification is that they managed to con a block of people to vote for them.” – Mario Puzo, The Godfather
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Paul Hickey will be on Making Money With Charles Payne today on Fox Business between 2 PM and 3 PM to discuss markets and the latest events in Iran. Check it out if you can!
Equity futures have been ping-ponging between gains and losses since the close yesterday, and they’re now on the red side of the table. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both down 0.1%. The 10-year yield has moved back to 4.36%, gaining 3 basis points. Oil prices moved back above $90 as investors try to figure out how things will play out in Iran. Good luck with that! Gold and other precious metals have seen muted moves this morning, with gains or losses of 1%, while Bitcoin has a fractional gain of 0.5%, taking it back above $71K.
It’s a relatively busy day for data this morning with Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs at 8:30, but both reports are stale given the war situation. Investors will probably focus more attention on flash PMIs for March from S&P at 9:45 and the Richmond Fed at 10 AM. All of these reports will take a backseat to whatever geopolitical headlines or “truths” hit the tape.
European stocks were still open for trading yesterday when President Trump made his comments regarding Iran. Therefore, they had the opportunity to adjust, but this morning they’re adding modestly to those gains with the STOXX 600 up 0.3%. Flash PMI readings for March were also released. While manufacturing indices were better than expected, service sector PMIs generally missed.
Asian stocks played catch-up and followed the US lead overnight with gains across the board. Japan was up 1.4% while China rallied nearly 2%, and the Kospi gained 2.7%. The gains weren’t steady, though. In South Korea, for example, the KOSPI started the day with a gain of more than 4% but gave back all those gains early in the session and briefly traded lower before rebounding in the second half of the session. Inflation data in the region was on the light side as Japanese CPI and South Korean PPI for February both rose less than expected. While the lower inflation data was welcome, flash PMIs for Australia and India were both lighter than expected.
After falling more than 50% in price terms from its closing high in August 2020 to its low in October 2023, long-term US Treasuries, as proxied by the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT), remain in the back half of a lost decade. As shown in the chart below, while prices remain near their multi-year lows, they have stopped going down, and with the long end of the curve yielding close to 5%, a flat market in price terms isn’t so bad.
Looking at a one-year chart of TLT shows an interesting pattern. We’ve discussed the nowhere direction of the equity markets and some notable stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) extensively over the last several weeks, but the treasury market has also been comatose. Look at TLT’s 50 and 200-day moving averages (zoomed in on the inlay). Over the last several weeks, the two have moved in lockstep.
The two moving averages have been moving in such unison that yesterday was the 36th straight trading day the spread between the two was less than 25 basis points. Looking back at the ETF’s history over the last 20+ years, this current streak ranks as the longest in its history. It’s longer than the next closest one by more than two weeks! With the current spread between the two at less than 4 bps, it doesn’t appear likely to widen out to more than 25 bps any time soon!
Mar 23, 2026
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“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” – Sun Tzu
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Asian stocks plunged overnight, Europe was lower, and US futures were in the red about an hour ago, but all it took was one Truth Social Post to erase those losses and push stock futures firmly into the green. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to gap up more than 1.5% at the open, and European stocks are up by about 1%. Treasury yields are modestly lower, but the 10-year yield is still at an uncomfortably high 4.39%. After trading higher earlier, crude oil is down 7% to just under $92 per barrel. Gold is still trading down by close to 4%, sitting at $4,400 per ounce. At the end of January, it was more than $1,000 higher!
After last week’s declines, the Nasdaq finished lower for the fourth week in a row and the ninth week in the last ten. For ten weeks, that’s the fewest positive weeks since June 2022 and before that, July 2002. In the Nasdaq’s entire history, there have only been eight other periods when the Nasdaq declined for nine or more weeks in ten weeks, and only one of those periods saw the Nasdaq go ten straight weeks with declines.
Below, we show when each of these prior periods occurred on a long-term chart of the Nasdaq. Outside of the period in the mid-1970s, these other occurrences all came in the later stages of market declines. That sounds like good news, but a counter to that is that the only other time the Nasdaq declined for nine weeks in a ten-week span and was still so close to 52-week highs was in that early 1970s period.
While it was looking like another negative start to the week earlier, futures took a sharply positive turn after the President’s Truth Social post saying that the US and Iran had engaged in conversations “regarding a complete and total resolution” of hostilities. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is on pace to gap up 1.5% at the open. If those gains hold through the open, it would be the first 1.5%+ upside gap for QQQ this year and the 266th since the ETF’s inception in 1999.
The chart below shows QQQ’s average performance from the open to close after gapping up 1.5%+ at the open based on the day of the week it occurred. Of the 46 that occurred on a Monday, QQQ’s average performance from the open to close was a gain of 0.11% with positive returns 59% of the time. While positive, that ranks as the worst performance from the open to close following a 1.5%+ upside gap of any other weekday.
