May 30, 2025
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“If you don’t occasionally make a mistake, you’re not doing your job.” – Jim Sinegal
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There wasn’t a lot of action going on in the markets this morning. That was up until just a few minutes ago when the President started “truthing” about China, and said “No more Mr. Nice Guy!” Futures on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq quickly went from unchanged to down about 0.5%. European stocks were higher but have given up some of their gains, while Asian stocks fell on the on/off/now back on Trump tariffs. Like the equity market, treasuries are little changed. Crude oil is one of the bigger movers this morning with a gain of just over 1% while gold, the dollar, and crypto are all in the red.
It may be Friday, but there’s a busy batch of economic data on the calendar with Personal Income and Spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment.
One of the more high-profile earnings reports since yesterday’s close was Costco (COST), which reported better than expected EPS on inline sales and an 8% increase in comp sales. COST is trading marginally lower in response to the report, with the stock on pace to gap down about 0.5% at the open. What’s notable about this morning’s weakness is that it continues a trend that has been in place for the stock since the start of 2022. As shown in the table below, not including this morning, shares of COST have gapped down in reaction to 11 of its last 13 earnings reports. Another negative open today would make it 12 out of the last 14!
May 29, 2025
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“No technology has ever had the opportunity to address a larger part of the world’s GDP than AI.” – Jensen Huang
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To see yesterday’s CBNC interview, click on the image below.
The biggest report of the earnings season has come and gone, but as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on last night’s call, “This is just the beginning.” At least that’s what NVDA bulls are hoping. Based on pre-market levels, shares of NVDA are looking at an upside gap of over 5%. That would be the stock’s biggest upside gap in reaction to earnings since last May, and as we highlighted in Tuesday’s Chart of the Day, would extend its streak of positive reactions to May reports to four.
NVDA’s current pre-market levels are at the high end of the range the stock has traded in since the DeepSeek news first hit markets in late January. If NVDA can build on these gains during the trading day, it would be notable for two reasons. First, it would indicate a breakout from the post-DeepSeek range (shaded area in the chart below). More importantly, it would help to reverse a trend where the stock has repeatedly capped rallies with intraday negative reversals (see arrows in the chart below).
This trend has also been evident on the stock’s recent earnings reaction days. Following the last three earnings reports, the stock has sold off from the open to close, including in February when it sank 11% after initially gapping up nearly 3%.
May 28, 2025
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“Most ways of making big money take a long time. By the time one has made the money one is too old to enjoy it.” – Ian Fleming
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Today’s the day. The second most valuable company in the world, and the most important company when it comes to AI, reports after the close, and there will be a lot of attention on what Nvidia (NVDA) has to say when the company reports. Ahead of this afternoon’s report, it’s so quiet in the futures market, you can hear a pin drop as markets digest Tuesday’s big gains to kick off the week. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing report at 10 AM, while the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting will hit the wires at 2 PM Eastern. While NVDA is this afternoon’s main earnings event, we’ll also get reports from HP (HPQ) and Salesforce (CRM).
Heading into this afternoon’s report from NVDA, the stock has had a wild ride. Although it’s trading right at levels it was at a year ago, the stock has been all over the place, trading from above $140 late last spring to just above $90 early last August. From there, it rallied back to new highs and above $150, but less than two months ago, it was back below $90 amid the chaos of the Liberation Day tariffs. Then, yesterday, it closed back up near $140. For a large-cap stock to see back-and-forth fluctuations of declines over 35% followed by gains of over 60% is wild enough, but when swings like this occur in what is one of the most valuable companies in the world from a market cap perspective, it’s nuts.
May 27, 2025
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“Corrupt politicians make the other ten percent look bad.” – Henry Kissinger
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After President Trump ‘truthed’ comments last Friday morning threatening to lay 25% tariffs on iPhones imported into the US and 50% tariffs on goods imported from the EU, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq declined 1%, helping to contribute to the worst week for the S&P 500 since April. Over the weekend, President Trump dialed back on some of his threats from Friday, saying he would delay the threatened 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1st to July 9th. When futures opened for trading following the weekend break, futures rallied on the news, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to gap up 1.4% to kick off the week. If you’re following along at home, we went from no threat of a 50% tariff at the close on Thursday afternoon to the threat of a 50% tariff beginning on July 9th, and the S&P 500 is up a net of roughly 0.7% relative to where it was at the close on Thursday. With that kind of logic, you can see why the President keeps dialing up the threats and walking them back!
The S&P 500’s 2.5% decline last week continued a global trend that has been in place all year between US and international stocks. While the S&P 500 fell, every other G7 equity ETF finished the week higher, adding on to what have already been big gains for the year. As shown in the snapshot below, besides Japan, every other G7 equity ETF is up by double-digit percentages YTD, even as the S&P 500 remains fractionally in the red. SPY is also the only ETF of the ones listed that didn’t finish last week at overbought levels, although that will change at the open today.
May 23, 2025
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“If you want to keep your memories, you first have to live them.”– Bob Dylan
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Can you feel it? It may not feel like it in many parts of the country, but the unofficial start to summer kicks off in less than eight hours as the three-day Memorial Day weekend kicks off. There’s still one more trading day left in the week, though, and futures have been moving lower this morning and just recently took two legs lower. The first followed a Truth Social post from the President saying, “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.” In response to that post, shares of Apple (AAPL) plunged over 3% and took the Nasdaq down with it.
Shortly after that, the President shifted his attention to the EU, saying, “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.” As you can imagine, that didn’t help matters, and futures took another leg lower, but stocks in Europe are down even more, with the STOXX 600 down 2%. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 was firmly higher, heading into the final half hour of trading yesterday, it fell sharply into the close, finishing the day slightly lower. Did somebody have wind of these Truth Social posts beforehand? We may have a three-day weekend coming up, but the President can post at any time…
This morning’s earnings and economic calendar are on the light side with little in the way of earnings reports, and the only economic report on the calendar is New Home Sales at 10 AM.
The period covering Memorial Day through Labor Day overlaps with the “Sell in May and go away” period, but the S&P 500’s performance during the unofficial summer period has generally been positive, most notably during years when the S&P 500 was already up YTD. The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before Memorial Day through the Friday before Labor Day over the last 50 years. The S&P 500’s median performance during this period has been a gain of 3.7%, with positive returns 72% of the time. In years when the S&P 500 was up YTD heading into the unofficial summer period, the S&P 500’s median performance was a gain of 4.3%, with positive returns 74% of the time. However, in the 15 years when the S&P 500 was down YTD, the median performance was just 1.4%, with gains 67% of the time.
Looking at the week after Memorial Day, the chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday after over the last 50 years. Overall, the S&P 500’s median performance has been a gain of 0.6% with positive returns 64% of the time, and there’s very little difference in performance depending on whether the S&P 500 was up or down YTD heading into the holiday weekend.
May 22, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” – Scott Bessent
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Equity futures have been weakening all morning as yields have risen. Oil prices are lower as OPEC+ mulls another production increase, and Bitcoin is above $111K. The House passed its tax bill, and we’re approaching a slew of economic data about to be released after what has to this point been a quiet week for data.
The President and Treasury Secretary may want and be focused on the level of yields, but that’s not what they’re getting. While the 10-year US Treasury yield still hasn’t reached a new high for the year, the 30-year yield broke out above resistance yesterday, trading as high as 5.11% and then adding to those gains this morning and reaching a yield of 5.14%. From a technical perspective, the move higher in yield looks like a textbook breakout, and if that pattern played out, it would suggest higher rates ahead.
From a longer-term perspective, 5.11% was an important level for the 30-year yield. Looking at a two-year chart, it represents the high from Q4 2023, and if current levels of 5.14% hold, we could be in for a new leg higher in yields, which would spell more headaches for equities.
