Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/11/26 – Boring is Beautiful (Mostly)

Feb 11, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“The greatest minds are capable of the greatest vices as well as of the greatest virtues.” – Rene Descartes

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Anticipation is the word of the morning, as markets waited for the delayed January jobs report. Heading into the report, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures were all up a modest 0.10%. The 10-year yield was down a basis point to 4.13%, and crude oil was up over 2% and back above $65 per barrel. Precious metals are back in rally mode as gold rallies 1.5%, silver surges 6%, and Platinum rises 4%. Crypto, meanwhile, is struggling as Bitcoin pulls back 3% and trades back below $67. Metals rallying, crypto falling? Looks like things are getting back to normal!

The January payrolls report just hit the tape, and it was higher across the board. Non-Farm Payrolls were twice as much as expected (130K vs 65K), while the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.3% 4.4% expected. Average hourly earnings and the average workweek were also both higher than expected. In response to the report, the 10-year yield ripped higher to just under 4.2% while equity futures added to their gains.

Japan was closed overnight, but most other major benchmarks in the region finished the session higher, with Australia rallying 1.6% while South Korea added another 1.0%. South Korea reported an 44.4% y/y increase in exports during the first ten days of February, aided by a 138% increase in chip exports. In China, January CPI came in weaker than expected, rising 0.2% versus an expected 0.3% increase.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 isn’t closed, but it’s unchanged on the session. The FTSE 100 is up nearly 1%, but every other major benchmark in the region is lower. It’s been a quiet session in terms of economic data, with Italian Industrial Production (better than expected) being the only major report on the calendar.

If I told you that software stocks had lost a third of their value over the last five months, you’d say the Nasdaq was in a deep correction, at minimum. Conversely, if I told you that the number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs was routinely at the highest levels in at least a year, you’d be asking when the Nasdaq crossed 25,000.  Well, both trends outlined above have played out, but neither assumed result has played out for the Nasdaq, as both forces have essentially cancelled each other out, creating a period of stasis that has been going on for the last five months.

With the Nasdaq basically going nowhere since September, the spread between the index’s closing high and low recently dropped below 10%, and as of yesterday’s close, it was just 8.7%. That’s the first time that the five-month trading range dropped below 10% since 2019, and the narrowest range since October 2017. Back in the mid-teens, the Nasdaq’s five-month range was routinely below 10%, but since 1972, it has only occurred on less than 10% of all trading days.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/10/26 – Software Investors Become More “Choiceful”

Feb 10, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“We are all wrong so often that it amazes me that we can have any conviction at all over the direction of things to come.” – Jim Cramer

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After two big days of gains, investors are taking some profits this morning as futures on the major averages are all down a modest 0.2% or less. Bonds are catching a bid, though, as the 10-year yield is all the way down to 4.17% after testing 4.3% yesterday. Oil prices are modestly higher, while precious metals are modestly lower, with gold and silver each down less than 1%. When was the last time each of those moved under 1% on the same day?

In international markets, Asia was positive with Japan surging another 2%, while other major benchmarks were all up less than 0.5%. In Europe, the tone is also modestly positive, with the STOXX 600 up 0.1% while no other major benchmark is up or down more than 0.3%.

In the US today, small business sentiment unexpectedly fell in January, and at 8:30, we got the latest reports on the Employment Cost Index and Retail Sales. ECI was weaker than expected, and Retail Sales (for December) came in well below forecasts.

Through last Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 Software and Services Group was easily the worst-performing industry group in the S&P 500. With a decline of over 20% YTD, the group was down more than twice as much as the next closest group (Autos & Auto Parts). Over the last two days, Software has bounced back sharply, rallying more than 5%, but Semiconductors, which weren’t down nearly as much YTD heading into last Friday, are up by more than 8%!

Within the Software group, we wanted to look at which stocks led it to the downside and whether the rebound has been a reversal of the YTD trend or have investors become more discerning, trying to decipher the winners from the losers. The chart below shows the YTD performance of the industry group’s components through last Thursday’s close. Leading the way down was AppLovin (APP), which was down a staggering 44% through last Thursday. Along with APP, Gartner (IT), Intuit (INTU), ServiceNow (NOW), and Oracle (ORCL) were all down 30% for the year! In terms of winners, there practically weren’t any as Akamai (AKAM) was the lone stock in the group up YTD.

After sharp declines like we have seen in software stocks this year, when you see a bounce, it’s usually the biggest losers that bounce the most, while the stocks that held up the best don’t see nearly the juice. Based on that logic, you would expect the stocks mentioned above that were down 30% YTD to be up the most over the last two days, while a stock like AKAM would underperform.  Looking at how the group’s stocks have performed in the last two trading days, that hasn’t exactly played out.

With gains of 22.7% and 14.7% since last Thursday’s close, APP and ORCL have been two of the best performers during the current bounce, but the other three stocks that were down over 30% have all either performed in line with or below the average performance of stocks in the group. At the other end of the spectrum, even after rallying YTD through last Thursday, AKAM still managed to rally in the last two trading days. Not only that, but stocks in the group that held up relatively well during the pullback this year have also outperformed on the way up.

The fact that we haven’t simply seen the biggest losers YTD bounce the most over the last two trading days, and vice versa, can be interpreted as a healthy sign suggesting that rather than indiscriminately going in and buying whatever is down the most, investors have been more discerning in their actions, attempting to weed out the ultimate winners and losers. Whether they end up being right is a big if, but it still strikes us as a healthy sign.

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/9/26 – Hangover Day

Feb 9, 2026

See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“All the measures of the Government are directed to the purpose of making the rich richer and the poor poorer.” – William Henry Harrison

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Paul Hickey will be appearing on Investopedia’s Express Live today at 10:00 AM Eastern. You can view the segment on YouTube or LinkedIn.

Whether it’s staying up late watching the Super Bowl last night or too much excitement from Friday’s rally that took the DJIA above 50K for the first time, US equity futures are subdued to kick off the week. The S&P 500 is on pace for a decline of 0.15% at the open, while the Nasdaq is down twice as much. Down, but nothing major.

Outside of equities, yields are higher with the 10-year yield up 4 bps to just under 4.25%. Crude oil is modestly higher, erasing earlier losses, while gold has bounced back above $5K per ounce and silver rallies 4% to get back above $80 per ounce. Crypto had a respite from selling on Friday and moved back above $70,000, but the bounce hasn’t lasted long. This morning, we’re not only back below $70K but barely hanging onto $69K.

There’s not a lot on the data calendar today, but we will hear from a few Fed officials. More importantly, December Retail Sales will be released tomorrow, the January Non-Farm Payrolls report will hit the tapes on Wednesday, and then on Friday, we’ll get CPI for January.

Asian markets took the cue from Dow 50K on Friday and kept the rally going to kick off the week. The Nikkei surged almost 4%, while South Korea rallied just over 4%. Snap elections in Japan were positive for PM Takaichi, giving her party a supermajority, which should pave the way for her to implement her high-spending growth agenda.

In Europe, the tone isn’t quite as exuberant this morning, but stocks are broadly higher. The STOXX 600 is up 0.3%, and the UK is the only major benchmark facing losses. The February Investor Confidence survey from Sentix came in higher than expected as it unexpectedly moved into positive territory.

The diverging performance of small and large-cap stocks continued last week. The most overbought US index ETFs to close out the week are all generally smaller-cap and non-tech focused, while anything associated with mega-caps was down. In a week when the Dow (DIA) was up over 2% and closed at an all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), S&P 100 (OEF), and even the S&P 500 (SPY) were all lower. The Nasdaq 100’s 2% decline moves that index not only below its 50-DMA but also into oversold territory. At the other extreme, smaller and mid-cap indices, along with the Dow, are at various degrees of overbought levels.

Looking at the performance of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP), and the Russell 2000 (IWM) ETFs over the last year shows an interesting shift. Since its peak last October, the Nasdaq 100 has been drifting lower while both the S&P 500 Equal Weight and Russell 2000 have rallied. The result is that the Russell 2000 is now outperforming the Nasdaq 100 over the last year, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is rapidly closing the gap.

It’s been a rough three to four months for the mega-cap stocks relative to the rest of the market, but from a longer-term perspective, the recent underperformance of QQQ relative to RSP and IWM looks like much more benign as the longer-term trend remains intact. Whether that means this is just a temporary setback or that there’s much more mean reversion left in store remains to be seen, but for investors riding the mega-cap rally for the last several years are hanging on with white knuckles, hoping that, like the presidency of William Henry Harrison, this is a short stint.