Jun 16, 2020
For the last several weeks, all we have heard is how Americans have been sitting at home and gambling away their stimulus checks in the stock market. Well, if that’s true, how did they ever find the time or the money to spend like they did in May? Relative to April, Retail Sales rose by a record 17.7%, which was more than double expectations and well more than double the next strongest month back in October 2001.
Even after the largest monthly increase on record, Retail Sales remain well in the hole compared to where they were at their highs in January. In fact, through May the pace of sales on a seasonally adjusted basis was still nearly 40% off the highs.
For anyone with more than a passing interest in how the economic shutdown is impacting economic data, our monthly update on retail sales is a must-read. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
Jun 9, 2020
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) made it official and said that the longest economic expansion in US history ended in February at a record 128 months. While the NBER typically defines a recession as lasting “more than a few months,” it noted in the release that the pandemic caused a “downturn with different characteristics” than prior recessions. It went on further to say that the scope and magnitude of the decline in economic activity warranted the designation of a recession even if it ends up being shorter than the traditional definition of a recession or any other one for that matter.
Now that the NBER has made the recession official, as an investor, should you care? In a report just published, we looked at prior periods where the NBER formally declared a recession had started and looked at S&P 500 performance leading up to and after prior recessions announcements. For anyone looking for answers in how the NBER’s recession call could impact market performance, this report is a must-read. To see it, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!
