B.I.G. Tips – Energy and Defense Fly
This content is for members onlyMay 2025 Headlines
This content is for members onlyB.I.G. Tips – A Look at 45 Recent IPOs
The IPO market is getting some renewed interest with AI-stock CoreWeave (CRWV) performing well and the upcoming offering of fintech company Circle (CRCL) later this week. While the AI boom has been raging for over two years now, we have yet to see a big uptick in IPOs similar to what we saw during the Dot Com boom of the late 1990s. Most of that is due to successful private companies now preferring to stay ‘private for longer’, but we’d expect at least an eventual uptick in companies going public if AI is going to have staying power.
We looked at all of the stocks that have gone public in the US over the last couple of years and found 45 that are above $250 million in market cap save a few single-drug biotech offerings. We’ve broken them up into four categories: ones that are in uptrends, ones that are in the process of breaking downtrends, ones that are in sideways trends, and ones that are in downtrends. Our goal with this analysis is to give Bespoke subscribers some ideas to research further to see if any pique their interest.
To unlock our latest B.I.G. Tips report taking a look at 45 recent IPOs, login or start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
B.I.G. Tips – Death by Amazon – 5/21/25
In this note we update performance of our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices. Our “Death By Amazon” index has underperformed pretty dramatically since 2023 after broadly keeping up with the market as a whole over the prior 10 years. As for our “Amazon Survivors” index, it’s lagged the market somewhat so far this year but not dramatically.
Both of these indices outperformed dramatically in 2020 and 2021 but then gave all that boom back. It’s notable that these indices track stocks that are heavily exposed to tariffs given the general prevalence of Chinese-sourced goods in the consumer basket. That said, the impact isn’t uniform, with everything from used auto dealers to groceries seeing much less exposure to imports from China than the rest of the basket.
Bespoke publishes the “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” Indices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Neither index represents investment returns of an actual investment portfolio. When initially constructed, companies in the “Death By Amazon” index had to be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN’s threat to traditional retail. The “Amazon Survivors” index is designed to track the performance of companies which have some sort of defense against Amazon, selling goods not suited to mass e-commerce, operating e-commerce platforms of their own, or selling their own brands consumers will focus on instead of who is selling them. The indices are equally weighted, rebalanced monthly, and presented in total return terms.
To see how the two indices have been performing lately and view the full list of stocks that make up the indices, please read our newest report on the subject available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.
To unlock our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices, login or start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q1 2025
During the just-completed Q1 2025 earnings reporting period, there were a total of 78 earnings triple plays out of just under 2,000 individual quarterly earnings reports from US-listed stocks. That’s 16 more than the 62 triple plays we saw during the prior earnings reporting period.
What is a triple play? When a stock reports quarterly earnings, it registers a “triple play” when it beats analyst EPS estimates, beats analyst revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance. We coined the term back in the mid-2000s, and you can read more about it at Investopedia.com. We consider triple plays to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we’re constantly finding new long-term opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. You can track the newest earnings triple plays on a daily basis at our Triple Plays page if you’re a Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional member. To read our newest report and see some of the triple plays with intriguing charts at the moment, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium!