Jul 1, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
“Been dazed and confused for so long, it’s not true…Lotsa people talkin’, few of them know…Don’t know where you’re going, only know just where you’ve been…” – Dazed and Confused, Led Zeppelin
We can’t think of many songs that better encapsulate 2022, but if you can, let us know. Confusing has been an understatement as investors are faced with a barrage of back-and-forth moves and policy decisions that would make most fair-minded people scratch their heads. Despite the cross-currents, we hear a lot of confidence from both sides about what will go down in the second half, but even in normal times, let alone one of the trickiest economic backdrops any of us have ever experienced, few of them know.
There’s a lot to cover in this week’s Bespoke Report, including the horrible first half and what it might mean for the second half, the state of the economy and inflation, a preview of earnings season and the midterm elections, a look at consumer sentiment, and much more. To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jun 24, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Equity markets turned in a more positive week as interest rates traders mulled the possibility of lower commodity prices bailing out a Fed that looks intent on committing a policy error. We discuss the Fed’s missteps, the widespread declines in a number of major commodity markets, the relationship between recessions and bear markets, the messages being sent by interest rates, why oil supply problems aren’t fixed even if prices have dropped, the implications of large declines like the last few weeks for forward returns, global equity market performance and trends, bad overseas economic data this week, slowing manufacturing surveys in the US and around the world, housing affordability, interest rate sensitive sectors of the stock market, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jun 17, 2022
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Jun 10, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Every week, we show numerous charts to illustrate key trends in the market and economy in order to try and make sense of whatever is going on in the market. These days, though, only one chart matters—prices at the pump. Heading into this weekend, the national average price of a gallon of gas approached $5, a level it will almost certainly breach over the weekend. Not only are prices at a record high, but the pace of increase has been unprecedented. Since the COVID lows, the national average price has nearly tripled. Since the start of 2021, prices are up 122%, and this year prices are up 52% in less than six months. For just about every issue facing the market these days, gas prices are in some way related to it.
We jus published this week’s report which covers the meteoric rise in gas prices, inflation, and all the other issues weighing on markets.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
Jun 3, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
It’s a turbulent and frustrating time in American society and financial markets alike. But amidst the chaos, there are reasons for optimism. Lower valuations mean higher forward returns, all else equal, and underlying earnings continue to rise at a robust pace. Economic activity is slowing, but from a high level, while some of the tightest commodity markets with the most dramatic price action have been pulling back over the last few months amidst very high volatility across commodities. The dollar is also pulling back broadly against almost all foreign currencies, with implications for relative performance of stocks that have international exposure. We also take a deep look at manufacturing and services sector activity indices for May released this week and the results of Friday’s employment situation report. We also discuss background checks for firearms purchases, jobless claims data, trends in interest rates, equity valuations, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
To read this week’s full Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, start a two-week trial to one of our three membership levels.
May 27, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Finally! After seven consecutive losing weeks for the S&P 500, the index managed to close higher this week. And it was quite the move with SPY up more than 6% for its best one-week gain since the first week of November 2020 (Election Week).
Looking for further insights into the move, we noticed that the market also traded higher during regular trading hours (from the open to the close) on all five trading days this week as well, which signifies a sentiment-driven rally with buyers rushing into stocks intraday due to FOMO (fear of missing out). In SPY’s history, there have actually been 50 other weeks since the ETF began trading in 1993 where it gained from the open to the close on all five trading days from Monday through Friday. But this was the first time we’ve seen SPY post intraday gains all five days during the week with at least four of those gains being 1% or more.
For the month now, the S&P 500 is up 0.65%, and the bond market is also up more than 1%, which means that if we can make it one more trading day (Tuesday) without falling apart, all of those “60/40” investors out there will be able to open their May statements without a spike in blood pressure!
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