Dec 12, 2025
Our Bespoke Report – 2026 Global Macro Outlook is now available for Bespoke subscribers. This report is a top-down perspective on the global economy and the big narratives driving financial markets around the world as we head in to the new year.
- The AI boom has been the most pivotal driver of markets in 2025, and we don’t see that changing next year…though there are some key hurdles being set up that promise to make the AI trade much more volatile.
- US labor markets weakened in the middle of the year. We have a clear view on where they head next year, as well as how that will inform the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
- Around the world foreign central banks are starting to hike. That’s despite economic weakness in China. We explore why hikes are coming and the implications for the US and other global markets.
- We also cover commodities, credit, and much more in this snapshot of what lies in wait during 2026.
You can read our 2026 Pros and Cons by signing up for a two-week trial to our Bespoke Premium plan. You can review our membership plans here to help make your decision.
Dec 5, 2025
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.
The first full week of December was modestly positive, but what really added to the good feelings was a blackout of Federal Reserve speakers.
Futures currently price a 95% chance of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting, which is essentially the exact same as in late October. Given the lack of significant official economic data during this period, the stability in expectations makes logical sense. Without fresh data, how could Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members really change their outlook? Sometimes, though, what experts at the Fed —or elsewhere—say doesn’t fully make sense.
Expectations for Wednesday’s meeting haven’t changed from point to point, but the interim saw some dramatic shifts in sentiment, swinging from “they will cut” to “they won’t cut” and back to “they will cut.” Just over two weeks ago, market pricing for a cut at Wednesday’s meeting had dropped significantly to 34%. Accompanying these shifts in sentiment were major swings in stock prices. All of the major index ETFs we track in our Trend Analyzer went from overbought to oversold and back to overbought, driven almost entirely by the words of various Fed officials rather than any fundamental shifts in the US economy. Perhaps Scott Bessent was correct when he said this week, “I think it’s time for the Fed to just move back into the background like it used to do, calm things down, and work for the American people, set monetary policy on a good path…This isn’t sport, it’s people’s lives.”
This week’s Bespoke Report is packed with interesting market trends, so give the full report a read by starting a trial here.
Nov 21, 2025
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Two of famous investor Marty Zweig’s Investing Rules are “don’t fight the tape” and “don’t fight the Fed.” Both of these rules came into focus this week, which we cover in detail in this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter. Give the full report a read by starting a trial here.
Nov 14, 2025
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. While stocks eked out gains this week, it was a turbulent ride and under the hood some of the biggest winners this year are under major pressure. That’s not just true of the riskiest and most aggressively priced stocks, as crypto has taken hits along with precious metals. Even the juggernaut AI narrative is being tested, with surging credit spreads that represent market skepticism about the epic capex binge under way. US economic data remains scarce but we got lots of updates from China this week showing a surprising slowdown in that economy. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve has sounded the hawkish siren all week and markets are moving to reflect less support than previously expected.
Nov 7, 2025
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It was a wild week for markets as a series of headlines raised concerns that the AI trade may have gotten ahead of itself. Investors are also questioning the health of the economy amid the government shutdown. We cover all these events, along with earnings and the latest market trends, in this week’s Bespoke Report.
Oct 31, 2025
To read our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform offers, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. This week we are publishing our quarterly review of global financial markets from a macro perspective, touching on the AI boom and the debt underpinning it, the US economic and Federal Reserve outlook, and snapshots of the Eurozone, Germany, Sweden, South Korea, and China.
