There’s been quite a bit of conflicting signals in the US labor market recently. After some elevated readings in weekly jobless claims earlier this month, the last two weeks have seen claims come back in with the latest print of 203K marking the lowest weekly print in over six months. While jobless claims have moved back down towards the low end of their range, the latest ADP Private Payrolls report missed expectations by more than 70K. If that’s not confusing enough, the latest ISM data has shown big divergences with the employment component of the manufacturing report falling in four of the last five months while the employment component of the services report has risen for two months straight.
Heading into tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 185K, which would be a 57K increase from October’s reading of 128K. In the private sector, economists are expecting a similar increase from 131K up to 179K. Job growth in the Manufacturing sector is expected to rebound from –36K up to 40K. Even with the expected big increase in Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate is expected to stay unchanged at 3.6% while average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.3% compared to October’s reading of 0.2%.
Ahead of the report, we just published our eleven-page preview of the November jobs report. This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in November. We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for November typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months.
For anyone with more than a passing interest in how equities are impacted by economic data, this November employment report preview is a must-read. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!