Yesterday, the yield curve (spread between yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries) briefly moved into positive territory for the first time since May 23rd and ended a streak of 40 days at inverted levels. While the curve barely moved out of inverted territory (less than one basis point) and is in and out of inversion this morning, positive is positive! As we have mentioned in the past, while it has been a reliable recessionary indicator (sometimes with a lag), an inverted yield curve does not necessarily mean things will immediately turn south for the stock market.

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