With just one day separating the July 4th holiday and the upcoming weekend, you probably figured that Friday would be a throwaway day. Not this time. With the market all but pricing in at least a 25 bps rate cut at the end of the month but many FOMC officials not on the same page (see Mester’s comments from Tuesday), Friday’s employment report will be even more important than normal. You can bet there will be a notable market reaction whether the report is good or bad!
Heading into Friday’s report, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 162K, which would be an improvement from May’s much weaker than expected reading of 75K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 153K, which represents a 63K increase from last month’s weaker reading of 90K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 0.3% versus last month’s 0.2% reading. Finally, average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.4.
Ahead of the report, we just published our eleven-page preview of the June jobs report. This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in June. We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for June typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months.
For anyone with more than a passing interest in how equities are impacted by economic data, this June employment report preview is a must-read. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!