There have been four Fed Days so far this year (1/31, 3/21, 5/2, 6/13), and the Fed held the Fed Funds Rate steady on two of them (1/31 and 5/2) and hiked on two (3/21 and 6/13).
The Fed Funds Rate currently stands at 1.75%-2.00% (roughly 1.91% effective), and as shown below, the odds that the Fed makes no change with tomorrow’s policy release stand at roughly 98%. Earlier this year, odds for this outcome (driven mostly by lower odds of a June hike) fell as low as 68%, driven by concerns over Italian debt selling off, but that was temporary.
Ahead of every Fed Day, we publish a report that looks at the odds of future Fed rate hikes (or cuts), and we also analyze how the US stock market typically performs in response to Fed policy changes. We’ve just published our newest report ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement.
This one is a must-read. To see it, sign up for a Bespoke Premium membership now!