WTI crude oil prices crossed a major milestone when they traded above $70 per barrel for the first time since late 2014, when prices were crashing from over $100 to ultimately under $30. With the recent gains, crude oil prices are up over 16% YTD now and 52% over the last 12 months.
The most surprising aspect of the rally in crude oil prices is that the most recent leg higher has come as the dollar has rallied along with it. Historically, crude oil prices have had an inverse correlation to the dollar and looking at the chart below, it’s pretty easy to see that the rally in crude oil prices over the last year has mostly coincided with a decline in the dollar. Over the last four weeks, though, the US Dollar Index has seen a pretty sizable bounce of over 3%, but rather than stop the rally in its tracks, crude oil has been unfazed, gaining an additional 10%+.
We just published a report for clients looking at how equities have reacted following prior periods where crude oil and the dollar have rallied by similar magnitudes on a simultaneous basis. After going through this must-read report, you may be surprised to see just how uncommon a scenario like this is. To see the report, sign up for a monthly Bespoke Premium membership now!