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Remember earlier this year when Fed official after official was happy to be in front of any microphone and proclaim that tighter monetary policy would have little impact on the health of the economy? Well, that policy has evolved over the last nine months. In May, Chair Powell said that policy moves could result in a ‘softish landing’ for the US economy. Softish eventually turned to ‘some pain’ on the horizon, and then this month the Fed Chair told reporters at a press conference that “No one knows if this process will lead to a recession” which in Fed-speak translates to “it’s on.”
Everywhere you looked this week, Fed officials were speaking, and their message was in sync. They are focused on one thing and one thing only—stamping out inflation, and no amount of economic weakness will knock them off course until they are 110% certain that their goal has been met. Each official reiterated the same point, but just in case it wasn’t obvious, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester made herself loud and clear on 9/29 when she said that a “recession won’t stop the Fed from raising rates.” Good luck economy!
In this week’s Bespoke Report, we summarize recent market returns, the crazy moves in the fixed income market, economic trends increasingly pointing to a recession, some extremely oversold technical conditions, and much more.
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