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Since the start of Q4 last year we’ve seen a trend shift across a range of asset classes. Interest rates, the dollar, stocks, industrial metals, natural gas, and a range of other markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to most of last year. Some of this is down to luck – specifically related to the weather – but shifts from policymakers and economic data are also playing a major role. Despite trend shifts, US stocks have still not broken out. Earnings season is under way and could be the defining factor between whether bear market downtrends prevail or a new bull trend has been established.

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