Heavy into Metals
Earlier today in our Morning Lineup sent to clients, we noted the fact that major metals were all up sharply on the year. With copper’s surge on Tuesday, it was up an impressive 41.2% YTD, but still trailed platinum’s monster gain of 55.6%. While in any other year, the 25%+ gains in gold and silver would be impressive, but they look modest next to the gains in the other two, and the 5.85% gain for the S&P 500 almost looks pathetic.
The charts below show the YTD change in all four metals through July 8th of each year since 1990.
Again, while gold is up less than any of the other four metals this year, through yesterday’s close, the only other year with a larger YTD gain was in 2016. The only other year it was up over 20% was in 2006 (22.3%).
Platinum’s 55.6% gain is easily a record through this point in the year. In fact, it’s double the prior record of 27.8% that was reached in 2006 and 2008. The only other year that platinum gained more than 20% YTD through 7/8 was in 2000 (23.6%) and 2016 (23.4%).
Silver and copper have both experienced 20%+ YTD gains through 7/8 more than gold and platinum. Silver had a larger YTD gain last year and has now had six 20%+ YTD gains since 1990. Copper’s 41.2% gain this year ranks as the best since 2009 (53.1%) and is the seventh time that the commodity has rallied more than 20% YTD.
While all four commodities have experienced other YTD gains of 25%+, this year is the first time all four have rallied 25%+ YTD through 7/8 in the same year. The only time they ever all simultaneously rallied 20%+ YTD was in 2006, and the only other year when all four were even up 10% YTD at this point in the year was in 2008. Other years since 1990 have seen big runs in the metals, but none of them have been quite like the 25%+ across the board gains in 2025.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/9/25 – Copper Glitters
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“A great wind is blowing, and that gives you either imagination or a headache.” – Catherine the Great
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Looking at the quote above from Catherine the Great, isn’t that just the way you feel when it comes to AI? While the possibilities are endless, the pace of change and trying to keep on top of everything going on can be exhausting!
The S&P 500 has declined for two straight sessions, but futures are looking modestly higher this morning on little in the way of news. Investors will continue to monitor Washington for any tariff-related headlines, but the letters and policies released and announced this week have, broadly speaking, had little impact. It’s another quiet day for data as there are no economic reports on the calendar, but minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released at 2 PM.
Speaking of the FOMC, the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the President is currently leaning towards Kevin Hassett over Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell. Warsh is reportedly falling out of favor for some of his past criticism of the Fed’s zero-interest rate policy and asset purchase programs.
In international markets, Asian stocks were mostly lower overnight following Trump’s comments that he wouldn’t extend his August 1st tariff deadline. The only major index to buck the negative trend was Japan, where the Nikkei rallied 0.33%. In Europe, the tone is much more positive with the STOXX 600 up over 0.7% as defense stocks lead the charge.
As mentioned above, the President’s various tariff policies announced this week haven’t had much impact on a macro basis, but for certain areas like copper, the impacts have been significant. After the year has already seen incredible rallies in the price of gold, platinum, and silver, yesterday, President Trump gave copper the boost it needed when he announced 50% tariffs on all copper imports. The news came just as copper was starting to pull back last week after testing its highs from earlier in the year. That resistance proved no match for the 50% tariff bazooka, and prices broke out to a record high, eclipsing $5.40 per pound, finishing up more than 13% on the day. Strength in copper is often considered a sign of economic strength, but we’re not sure a rally artificially propelled by trade policy would qualify.
Yesterday’s 13.1% rally in copper was a record one-day gain for the commodity, eclipsing the prior record of 12.3% from October 2008. Since 1990, it was also only the third time the commodity rallied more than 10% in a single day.
Chart of the Day – The Worst Time of the Year
This content is for members onlyBespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/8/25 – Subdued
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“If your only goal is to become rich, you will never achieve it.” – John D. Rockefeller
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Subdued is the tone once again this morning as equity futures are little changed on either side of the unchanged line. Nasdaq futures are showing the biggest move with a gain of 0.25%. Crude oil is fractionally lower, just below $68 per barrel, while the 10-year yield is up 2 bp,s taking the yield back above 4.4%. Gold is slightly lower, while Bitcoin and Ethereum both are trading up about 1%.
In Asia overnight, most major indices were little changed, except for China, which was up 0.70% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up just over 1%. The modest gains came even as President Trump sent letters to many countries in the region, including Japan and South Korea, informing them that their exports to the US would face tariffs of at least 25%.
European stocks are little changed in the early going this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.10% while Germany and the UK are up fractionally, while France is lower. The EU was one region of the world not to receive a letter on tariffs, and that has raised hopes that a deal with the bloc could be near. Reports this morning suggest that the base rate will be 10% with some exceptions for aircraft and parts, medical equipment, and spirits.
Today in the US, it’s another quiet day on the calendar. NFIB Small Business Optimism came in right in line with expectations at 98.6, which was down very slightly from last month’s reading of 98.8. The only other report on the calendar is the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, where 1-year inflation expectations are expected to come in at 3.2%.
With Elon Musk announcing the creation of the America Party over the weekend and the potential of a third party to hurt Republican majorities in the mid-term elections, investors headed into the new week with concerns that potential retribution from President Trump would hurt Tesla’s business. In response, the stock opened down over 6% yesterday and basically stayed there, finishing the day with a decline of nearly 7%.
Yesterday’s decline broke TSLA’s uptrend off the April lows, and that came after making a lower high in late June. All this came after the stock made a golden cross (50-day moving average cross above the 200-day moving average as both are rising) last week, which technicians consider a positive technical formation. Fitting for a stock like TSLA, the stock’s trading pattern has been sending mixed signals.
Normally, as companies become larger in terms of market cap, their share prices become less volatile, but that’s not the case with TSLA. Yesterday was the 29th daily gain or loss of 5%+ in TSLA over the last six months, which works out to 23% of all trading days. While the company went public in 2010, it wasn’t until 2020 that TSLA routinely started to see 5%+ daily moves on 20% or more of trading days over a rolling six-month period.
