Sep 24, 2025
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“Life starts all over again when it gets crisp in the fall.”- F. Scott Fitzgerald
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 was only down 0.55% yesterday, but that was enough to be the worst day for US stocks since the first trading day of the month. This morning, futures are showing modestly positive gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.13% and the Nasdaq trading 0.21% higher. Treasury yields are also higher as the 10-year has ticked up to 4.13% and is on pace for the fifth daily increase in the six trading days since last week’s cut. Crude oil is up 1% and back up to $64 per barrel for the first time since the middle of the month, but gold is giving back some of the gains from the last two days as it trades back down to $3,800 per ounce. It’s been a rough few days for crypto, but the sector is catching a break this morning as Bitcoin rallies more than 1% while Ethereum is up a more modest 0.55%.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed, with Japan and China trading higher, while India and South Korea slid by about 0.5%. As we saw in many European PMI readings yesterday, Japan’s flash Manufacturing PMI slid further into contraction, falling from 49.7 to 48.4 versus forecasts for a more modest drop to 49.5.
European markets are more negative this morning, with the STOXX 600 trading down 0.3%, as luxury stocks drag the major averages, especially in France, lower.
It’s been a week now since the Fed cut rates, and so far the equity market has seen a modestly positive reaction while treasury yields have moved higher, with the 10-year yield moving up to 4.11% from 4.03% last Tuesday, the day before the cut. The rise in yields over the last week undoubtedly is at least partially a reflexive response to what happened after last year’s cut. Back then, yields were in a steady decline in the six months leading up to the cut, falling from 4.7% to just over 3.6%, but the cut rang the bell, and from there, rates retraced all their previous decline by year’s end.
This year, we’ve seen a similar pattern where yields steadily declined leading up to last week’s cut and have been moving higher ever since. The one difference is that last year, most investors expected yields to continue falling into year-end, while this year, the consensus is expecting yields to rise and the curve to steepen. Will history repeat itself, or is it too obvious?
Homebuilder stocks are one of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the market, and like treasury yields, they’ve followed a similar pattern this year compared to last year. The one difference is that while the iShares Homebuilder ETF (ITB) was hitting highs for the year at the time of last year’s September cut, this year the ETF peaked about two weeks before last week’s cut. The fact that investors were starting to take profits in the homebuilders ahead of the cut illustrates the sentiment that there was less optimism towards long-term yields continuing lower after the September cut this year, compared to last year.
The S&P 500’s pattern this year varied from last year in that it has been much less volatile leading up to the cut than it was last year. In each case, though, it was trading either right at or very close to new highs at the time of the cut.
Sep 23, 2025
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Sep 23, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“I am who I am today because of the choices I made yesterday.” – Eleanor Roosevelt
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
S&P 500 futures are unchanged as we type this, indicating an uneventful day for equities, although the persistent bid we have seen for months now could pull things higher throughout the session. The only economic data on the calendar this morning is New Home Sales at 10 AM and preliminary PMI data from S&P for the manufacturing and services sector at 9:45. There’s also a heavy dose of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell shortly after noon.
Overnight in Asia, markets were mixed. While Japan was closed, Hong Kong and China were lower, while the Kospi traded higher to record highs. The tone in Europe is decidedly more positive with broad-based strength pushing the STOXX up by 0.3% even as PMI data for the manufacturing sector showed lower than expected growth.
In terms of market leadership, the largest companies in the market continue to dominate. The table below lists the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 along with their YTD performance. All but one of them – Eli Lilly (LLY) – is up on the year, and it’s only down 2%. The median performance of the 20 stocks listed is a gain of 17.1%, with half of them rallying at least 20%, including Palantir (PLTR) and Oracle (ORCL), which are up 137% and 97%, respectively.
Now, contrast the performance of the 20 largest stocks with the 20 smallest stocks. Only four of the 20 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 are up YTD, and their median performance is a decline of close to 17%. It’s basically a mirror image of the 20 largest stocks. In an investment environment where passive flows should be a tide lifting all boats in the S&P 500, investors are actively abandoning ship on the smallest stocks in the index.
While the largest stocks in the S&P 500 have been leading the market all year, yesterday was a notable one in the fact that it was the first time all nine current members of the trillion-dollar club finished the day with a positive YTD performance. Earlier in the year, we got close with eight stocks in the black, but Apple (AAPL) was the holdout. For the first time all year, though, AAPL finished the day with a positive YTD gain yesterday, joining the eight others in the party.
Sep 22, 2025
After a couple of days of weakness after the Fed’s rate cut last week (if you can even call it that), gold prices are up 1.8% today and back at record highs. Today is on pace to mark the first close for gold above $3,700 per ounce, and it would be the 9th record closing high this month and the 36th record this year. Already, 2025 ranks as the fourth most record closing highs in a year for gold, trailing 1979 (57), 2024 (46), and 2011 (37).
Gold has been strong this year, but its 42% YTD gain actually trails silver’s gain of 51%. While that has helped to push the ratio between the two metals lower, at the current level of 84.6, the gold-silver ratio remains historically elevated. Earlier this year, the ratio was even wider and briefly surged past 100, but as silver caught a bid over the summer, the ratio moved back down to the range it has been in the last couple of years. Even as the spread has come in over the last five months, though, it is still more than 20 points higher than its historical average. To get back down to that ratio, either gold would need to fall 25%, silver would need to rally 34%, or there would need to be some combination of the two.
Silver is getting to some interesting levels as well. At $44 per ounce, the bridesmaid of precious metals is right in between its 1980 and 2011 peaks. Back in 2011, when silver made new highs, the breakout was fleeting, but now 15 years later, it’s knocking on the door of new highs once again. Time will tell if silver can make a successful breakout this time, but with runs to new highs being as frequent as the emergence of various cicada species, it doesn’t want to waste its chance!
Sep 22, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“A man who is certain he is right is almost sure to be wrong.” – Michael Faraday
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 closed at its 27th record high of the year on Friday as investors continued to bask in the light of the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday. The 28th record high of the year will likely have to wait at least another day, though, as futures on all three major averages are indicated to open down by a little more than 0.30%. Small caps, which also hit a record high last week after a long drought, are also lower but not by as much (0.23%) as the S&P 500.
Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei rallying 1% to another record high, while Hong Kong was down close to 1% and China was marginally higher. While Japanese stocks keep hitting record highs, JGBs keep falling as the 10-year yield hit the highest level since 2007.
In Europe, the tone is more one-directional with the STOXX 600 down 0.2% while Germany leads the way lower with a decline of 0.7%. There’s no economic data in the region this morning, but auto stocks are weaker with both Volkswagen and Porsche trading lower after lowering guidance.
As we noted in last week’s Bespoke Report, we’re in a data lull. While multiple FOMC members will speak today, last week’s cut is behind us, and earnings season doesn’t kick off for another two weeks. Newton’s first law of motion says that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by force, so that would suggest more gains ahead. However, it is late September, which is historically a weak time of year, and investors have seen some large gains over the last five months, so you can’t fault anyone for wanting to take some profits.
Crypto will be one place to watch for a measure of risk appetite in the market, and this morning’s action is showing a more defensive posture. Bitcoin is trading down over 2% this morning as it has broken below $113,000 and below its 50-day moving average (DMA). With today’s decline, Bitcoin is essentially trading right where it was back in May.
Unlike Bitcoin, which has been moving sideways, Ethereum prices had a much steeper run-up over the Summer, even as it has traded in a sideways range for the last month. This morning’s weakness in Ether has been more magnified with a decline of over 6%, and it too is below its 50-DMA for the first time in months.
