The Closer – NIPA Revisions, Autos, Internationals – 3/27/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with some commentary regarding the North American tariff situation (page 1).  We then look at the latest update of GDP data (page 2). Next, we look at the tariffs ramifications for used cars (page 3) and the advanced trade balance (page 4).  We finish with a look at the historic spread between QTD performance of the US versus the rest of the world (page 5).

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Country ETF Dividends

It’s been two weeks since the S&P 500 (SPY) put in its March 13 low.  Since then, SPY has risen 3.2% which is slightly above the 2.6% average gain of the ETFs tracking the stock markets of 22 major global economies.   As shown below, topping the list and outperforming in that span have been emerging market countries like Brazil (EWZ) and India (INDA) which are both up well over 6.5%.  Meanwhile, only two stocks are meaningfully lower in that time: Taiwan (EWT) and Hong Kong (EWH).  Of those, EWT is much more closely resembling the US over a longer time frame.  Since the S&P 500’s February 19 peak, it is down 7.2% which is essentially tied with Taiwan for the worst performance since then. While those are the two biggest losers, most other country ETFs have moved higher to build upon what has been impressive strength year to date.  Whereas the US is down low single digits this year, most other countries have in that time risen well into the double digits.

International ETFs don’t only have momentum on their side, but they also offer higher yields than the US at the current moment. On a twelve trailing month basis, SPY’s 1.26% yield ranks as the second lowest among these ETFs. The only one that has offered a smaller, and less than 1%, yield is India (INDA). On the whole, across all 22 ETFs, the average yield stands at 3.25%.  Relative to each one’s respective history, whether or not those are elevated yields vary. For example, for the S&P 500, the current yield only ranks in the 5th percentile of that 20 year range. Meanwhile, Japan’s (EWJ) 2.22% yield ranks at the low-middle end of these ETFs, but is in the top decile versus EWJ’s own history.

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The Closer – Fedspeak, Energy, CFOs – 3/26/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start report with a rundown on the latest Fedspeak (page 1) followed by a chart review of the Magnificent Seven and a handful of other stocks (page 2). We then look at the relationship between oil, rates, and the dollar (page 3). Next, we pivot over to the Dallas Fed’s Energy Survey (pages 4 and 5) in addition to the latest manufacturing data (page 6). We close out with a review of trade policy impacts on the Duke CFO survey (page 7 and 8).

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