The Closer – Fed Independence, Confidence, Credit Cards – 8/26/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with further commentary on the situation surrounding the possible firing of Fed Governor Cook and some implications of a less independent Fed (pages 1 and 2). We then pivot over to the consumer confidence readings followed by the latest Fed manufacturing (page 3)  and services data (page 4 and 5).  We finish with a look at credit card delinquencies and the performance of related stocks (pages 6 and 7).

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The Closer – Funding, New Homes, AI Dynamics – 8/25/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with commentary on funding markets (page 1) followed by a look into the latest manufacturing data out of the Dallas Fed (page 2).  We then shift over to the update on new home sales (page 3). Afterward, we review the differing performance in AI names (page 4) and close out with a rundown of the latest positioning data (page 5).

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A Whipsaw Week

The first part of this week was driven by rotation out of the year’s winners into the year’s losers. Fast forward to Friday with Fed Chair Powell hinting at rate cuts in September, everything reversed.  As shown below, breaking the Russell 1,000 into deciles (ten equal sized groups of 100 index members), today’s best performers were those that had been the worst performers from August 13th through yesterday’s close. The 100 stocks down the most from 8/13-8/21 gained over 4% today on average.  Conversely, the deciles of the best performers from 8/13-8/21 still averaged gains today, but they were much weaker at just over 1%.

In the table below, we show the 25 best performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 today.  As shown, wireless networking equipment maker Ubiquiti (UI) is experiencing the single largest gain of any stock in the index, up 28.8%.  The stock’s surge comes after reporting a top and bottom line beat this morning with the announcement of a stock buyback and cash dividend. Earnings aside, the stock was a big decliner in the days prior, having fallen almost 20% since August 13.  The next largest gain was another earnings story as Zoom Communications (ZM) rose 12.18% on its own top and bottom line beat.

On average, the stocks up the most today were down 4% from 8/13-8/21, with names like RH, Rocket (RKT), and QXO down 10%+ during this period.  As Powell opened the door for another cut, many of the biggest gainers today were housing related or cyclical in nature. RH (RH) is a high-end home furnishing business whereas Rocket (RKT), Mr Cooper (COOP, and UWM (UWMC) represent mortgage lending.  Homebuilder-adjacent names like Builders FirstSource (BLDR) and Floor & Decor (FND)  likewise posted high-single digit gains today.  Out of the transportation industry, travel and leisure names like Alaska Air (AIR) and Norwegian Cruises (NCLH) made the list in addition to logistics and goods transporters such as XPO (XPO).

The Closer – Manufacturing Rebound, Claims Demographics, Home Sales – 8/21/25

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a rundown on the latest earnings reports and macro themes coming out of those earnings and Jackson Hole (page 1). Next, we check in on manufacturing PMIs (pages 2 and 3) before pivoting over to claims data (pages 3 – 5). We round out tonight’s report with an update on existing home sales (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!