The Closer – Fed Chatter, Lira Splatter, Home Price Peak, Real Rates Bidders – 8/18/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin tonight with an update on Fed speak (page 1) followed by an update on the macro situation in Turkey (page 2). We then review the latest existing home sales data (page 3 and 4) before updating our Five Fed Composite with the addition of the Philly Fed (pages 5 – 7). We close out with a recap of the 30 year TIPS auction (page 8).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!

Bulls Set a New High

Bullish sentiment continued its recent run of increases according to the weekly AAII individual investor sentiment survey.  Hitting 33.3% this week, bulls are at the highest level since the last week of 2021.  That 2022 is nearly 2/3 complete and we still haven’t seen a bullish reading over 33.3% tells you how negative investors have been this year.

Bears also ticked up this week reaching 37.2% versus 36.7% last week.  While bearish sentiment has only been below 40% for three weeks in a row, that is the longest stretch of sub-40% readings since the start of the year.

With more bears than bulls once again this week, the bull-bear spread has now been negative for 20 straight weeks.

With both bulls and bears higher, neutral sentiment was the only reading to fall this week.  Neutral sentiment dropped 1.7 percentage points from 31.2% down to 29.5%.  That was only the lowest reading in four weeks as neutral sentiment sits the closest to its historical average of 31.4%. Click here to learn more about Bespoke’s premium stock market research service.

 

The Closer – Minutes Unremarkable, Retail Sales, Tepid Twenties- 8/17/22

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a review of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and earnings (page 1), we dive into how the moves in equities were consistent with credit markets (page 2). We then switch over the macro data to show the narrowest crude oil trade deficit on record (page 3) and retail sales (page 4 and 5). We close out with a recap of the 20 year bond auction (page 6).

See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!