Apr 27, 2023
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick things off with a look at the notable earnings released after the closing bell (page 1) followed by a look at the fundamentals of airline stocks (page 2). Next, we check in on Fed liquidity and rents (page 3) followed by a rundown of the latest GDP data (page 4 and 5). We then show demographic details of jobless claims figures (pages 6 and 7) before closing with a recap of the 7 year note auction (page 8).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Apr 27, 2023
As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. After rising to 27.2% last week, only 24.1% of respondents reported as bullish this week, the lowest reading since the end of March.
That resulted in rising bearish sentiment which rose 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. Conversely, to bullish sentiment, that is the highest reading since the end of March.
With inverse moves in bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread has fallen deeper into negative territory meaning bears continue to outnumber bulls, and by a wider margin, although nowhere near the degree as levels seen in 2022.
As we noted throughout 2022 and earlier this year, bears have consistently outnumbered bulls. In fact, this week marked the tenth in a row in which the bull-bear spread was negative. While that is one of only a handful of other streaks lasting for ten or more weeks going back through the history of the survey, it comes on the back of the record 44-week streak that ended this past February. That was only shortly after another 12-week streak ending in March of last year and the second longest streak on record (34 weeks long) that ended in the fall of 2020. In other words, the story remains in which sentiment has been unshakably bearish.
Have you tried Bespoke All Access yet?
Bespoke’s All Access research package is quick-hitting, actionable, and easily digestible. Bespoke’s unique data points and analysis help investors better visualize underlying market trends to ultimately make more informed investment decisions.
Our daily research consists of a pre-market note, a post-market note, and our Chart of the Day. These three daily reports are supplemented with additional research pieces covering ETFs and asset allocation trends, global macro analysis, earnings and conference call analysis, market breadth and internals, economic indicator databases, growth and dividend income stock baskets, and unique interactive trading tools.
Click here to sign up for a one-month trial to Bespoke All Access, or you can read even more about Bespoke All Access here.
Apr 27, 2023
The latest week’s jobless claims data fell down to 230K from the previous week’s upward revision to 246K. That 16K decline was the largest week over week drop since the first week of the month and brings claims back down to the low end of the past couple of months’ range.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were lower reaching 225.84K. That is roughly inline with the comparable weeks of last year and the few years prior to the pandemic. As shown in the second chart below, a drop in the current week of the year has very much been the norm historically. As for 2023 as a whole, unadjusted claims have remained relatively flat following the steep seasonal decline in the first weeks of the year. The potential for further seasonal strength will remain in place for the next few weeks as claims historically have reached a seasonal low in late May.
Like initial claims, seasonally adjusted continuing claims also surprised with a decline this week. Continuing claims totaled 1.858 million in the most recent week, down from 1.865 million and better than the expected increase to 1.87 million. Albeit the latest week’s reading was surprisingly strong, the indicator’s uptrend remains firmly in place which as we noted in last week’s Bespoke Report, the overall rise in continuing claims has resembled other recessionary periods.
Have you tried Bespoke All Access yet?
Bespoke’s All Access research package is quick-hitting, actionable, and easily digestible. Bespoke’s unique data points and analysis help investors better visualize underlying market trends to ultimately make more informed investment decisions.
Our daily research consists of a pre-market note, a post-market note, and our Chart of the Day. These three daily reports are supplemented with additional research pieces covering ETFs and asset allocation trends, global macro analysis, earnings and conference call analysis, market breadth and internals, economic indicator databases, growth and dividend income stock baskets, and unique interactive trading tools.
Click here to sign up for a one-month trial to Bespoke All Access, or you can read even more about Bespoke All Access here.
Apr 26, 2023
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with earnings recaps including the well received Meta Platforms (META) report (page 1). We then dive into a look at possibilities for tomorrow’s GDP number (page 2) and durable goods (page 3). We then check in on data out of Brazil (page 4) before recapping the latest EIA data (page 5). We finish with a review of the latest Treasury auction (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
