Labor Demand Holds Up

Oct 3, 2023

This morning we received two of the latest updates on labor market demand with the release of the August JOLTS report in addition to postings data from Indeed through the end of September.  The JOLTS report came in well above expectations (9.61 million versus 8.83 expected) indicating a solid rebound in labor market demand headed out of the summer.  In spite of that positive reading, the overall trend of lower openings remains in place and is echoed by Indeed’s data.  As shown below, the more timely and higher frequency postings data has also been trending lower since the end of 2021. That being said, the summer has seen those declines decelerating with postings only slightly lower over the past three months. Modeling the JOLTS number on the less lagged Indeed data would predict that postings would remain around these levels next month. In tonight’s Closer, we will provide a full rundown of the latest JOLTS report.

In addition to national reads on job postings, the Indeed data also provides geographic breakdowns by US metro, and in the table below, we highlight the 25 MSAs (metropolitan statistical area) that have seen the best and worst postings growth relative to pre-pandemic baselines as well as how far they have fallen from their respective peaks (we highlight when each of those peaks were as well). Many of those with the highest number of openings relative to pre-pandemic are also those with smaller populations.  Conversely, many of the largest metros have seen job postings fall off the most. There have also been a growing number of cities where postings are now below pre-pandemic levels.  San Francisco is the worst of these with postings down nearly 20% from baseline.