The Closer – Yield Collapse, Rent Stabilization, 5 Fed – 11/28/23

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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with an update on the latest dovish turn in Fedspeak as well as the collapse in Treasury yields (page 1).  We then dive into the latest home price data including a look at the stabilization in rents (page 2).  Next, we update our final Five Fed composite for the month of November (page 3) before closing out with a rundown of today’s weak 7 year note auction (page 4).

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Gold Closes in on New Highs

In last night’s Closer and today’s Morning Lineup, we discussed areas in commodity markets that have been selling off. One that has avoided those declines has been gold. As shown below, gold’s outperformance isn’t exactly new.  Gold relative to a broad basket of commodities massively outperformed early on in the pandemic, but that outperformance reversed up through the spring of 2022.  The past year and a half has seen that outperformance generally return, especially over the past couple of months.

Amidst that outperformance, the yellow metal has been rallying since its early October low having gained 11.5% since then. That brings the commodity back within 0.65% of its 52-week set in May and 0.77% below the all-time high from August 2020 (what had been the first all-time high in nearly a decade).  However, since the 2020 high those levels have repeatedly acted as tough resistance.