Jan 29, 2024
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, after a rundown of tonight’s earning reports, we show the drop off in estimated borrowing by the US Treasury (page 1). We then show the collapse in coal production (page 2) before pivoting over to the collapse in our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite with the final addition of the Dallas Fed (page 3). We finish with a rundown of the latest positioning data (pages 4-7).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Jan 29, 2024
Today’s data slate was light with the only release of note being the Dallas Fed’s monthly manufacturing survey. The results were disappointing to say the least as the headline number came in at -27.4, more than twice as low as expectations of -11.8. The huge miss relative to forecasts is not exactly new though. Earlier this month, the Kansas City survey and New York Fed survey likewise came in well below estimates.
Using data from our Economic Indicator Database, below we show the average spread between the actual release value and economist forecast of each regional Fed manufacturing survey (Empire, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas) since 2011. As shown, this January has seen outright massive misses. Only two other months have seen readings disappoint to wider degrees: December 2018 and March 2020. In tonight’s Closer we will provide an updated look at our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite which creates a composite of each of these reports to gauge national manufacturing activity.
Jan 25, 2024
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some commentary on the ECB’s rate decision and a look at PCE’s return to target (page 1). Next, we provide an update on National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data (page 2) and new home sales (page 3). After a rundown of tonight’s earnings reports (page 4) we review today’s 7 year note auction (page 5).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
