The Closer – Aviation Update, Ford Sales, Positioning – 3/4/24
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with some commentary regarding today’s Fedspeak, aviation news, and pressures on New York Community Bank (page 1). We then dive into the latest sales figures from Ford including a highlight on the strength of EV and hybrids (page 2). We finish with a rundown of the newest positioning data (pages 3-6).
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Daily Sector Snapshot — 3/4/24
This content is for members onlyBitcoin Elevates
As we discussed in the Morning Lineup today, equities’ sleepy start to the week serves as a sharp contrast to surging Bitcoin prices. As of this writing, Bitcoin is up 6% on the day bringing it right above $67,000 for the first time since the record high from 11/8/21.
As Bitcoin nears a new record, we would note that the current streak of 847 calendar days without a record close is the second longest streak next to the recovery from the late 2017 peak.
As shown in the first chart below, the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices this year has resulted in prices flying above the 50-DMA. Currently, Bitcoin trades 2.6 standard deviations above its 50-DMA. That is extremely overbought, albeit the spread eclipsed 3 standard deviations as recently as February 28th. As shown, these have been some of the most overbought readings in the crypto space of the past five years, but historically that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Whereas the standard theory is that an asset trading well above its moving average would suggest that it is due for some downside mean reversion, the opposite has historically played out for Bitcoin. As shown in the table below, the best average forward returns for Bitcoin have typically occurred when it has been the most overbought rather than oversold.
