The Closer – All Time Highs, AI Breakout, Claims Conundrum – 6/13/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with a look at what performance has looked like when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit all time highs without the Russell 2,000 (page 1). We then provide an update on AI stocks and the breakout of our AI basket (page 2). Turning to macro data, we then dive into the latest PPI data (page 3) and the some nuanced details of the latest jobless claims data (pages 4 and 5). We finish with a recap of the long bond reopening (page 6).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 6/13/24
This content is for members onlyJobless Claims Swing Higher
Economic data, including jobless claims, came in weaker than expected this morning,. For seasonally adjusted initial claims, there was a jump to 242K in the first week of June, the highest reading since last August.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims totaled 234.7K. As shown in the first chart below, that is still lower than the comparable week of last year and is also within the range of readings of other recent years save for the much more elevated levels observed in 2020 and 2021. For this point of the year, claims face seasonal headwinds. Historically, the current week of the year has seen claims rise close to three-quarters of the time with a median increase of 37K. That was right in line with the 38.5K uptick that was observed.
As we will detail further in tonight’s Closer, given the NSA number rose by as much as could be expected, it is peculiar that the seasonally adjusted number rose as significantly as it did.
Finally, we would note that continuing claims have also pressed higher, reaching 1.82 million. As shown below, that is the first reading above 1.8 million since the final week of March and the most elevated reading of any week since January 20th.
The Closer – CPI, FOMC, EIA – 6/12/24
Log-in here if you’re a member with access to the Closer.
Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we begin with a dive into the latest CPI data (page 1) followed by a recap of the FOMC decision (page 2) as well as the market’s response to the decision (page 3). We then finish with a review of the historic trade numbers in the latest EIA data (page 4).
See today’s full post-market Closer and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a 14-day trial to Bespoke Institutional today!