Please click the image below to view our October 2024 market calendar. This calendar includes the S&P 500’s historical average percentage change and average intraday chart pattern for each trading day during the upcoming month. It also includes market holidays and options expiration dates plus the dates of key economic indicator releases. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we kick off with an overview of recent Fedspeak including Powell’s comments this afternoon (page 1). We then dive into the news and poor performance from Stellantis (STLA) (page 2) before reviewing the latest positioning data (pages 3 – 6).
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Far and away the most notable market event over the past week has been the historic surge in Chinese equities. As we discussed in today’s Morning Lineup, the Shanghai CSI 300 has gone from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in only a couple of weeks thanks in part to a record over 25% rally in the past five days alone. Significant stimulative monetary policy, which we dedicated multiple pages in Friday’s Bespoke Report to discuss, has sparked the advance
The superlatives, however, don’t stop there. In the matrix below, we show the performance of the ETFs for 22 major global economies featured in our Global Macro Dashboard (which was most recently updated last Wednesday). As shown, Chinese equities, as proxied by the MSCI China ETF (MCHI), are now up close to 26% since September 13th (the date of the CSI 300’s 52-week low). In that same span, Hong Kong (EWH) has risen in sympathy with a 17.5% gain, but the third best-performing country – South Africa (EZA) – hasn’t even seen half of those gains. Other than China and Hong Kong, Australia (EWA) is the only other international market starting the week at a 52-week high. While the run in Chinese stocks is a high bar to be compared to, the rest of the world has at least generally seen positive performance. Only two countries are lower since mid-September: Brazil (EWZ) and Mexico (EWW). As such, most countries are also currently overbought with China and Hong Kong doing so to a record, off-the-chart degree.
The charts below show MCHI and the degree to which it is overbought by two measures. The first (middle chart) is the 14-day RSI, and the second (third chart below) is the number of standard deviations from its 50-DMA. As shown, after the rally of the last couple of weeks, the ETF has erased all of the losses since February 2023. For RSI, typically any reading above 70 could be considered “overbought”, but today that index is over 10 points higher. The only time the RSI was more extended was in the spring of 2015. Meanwhile, there has never been a point since the ETF’s inception (2011) in which it has been more extended above its 50-DMA. Last Tuesday MCHI traded over 5 standard deviations above its 50-DMA.
