The Most Oversold Country in the World

Mar 6, 2025

In a post yesterday, we discussed the historic surge in German equities, which is even more historic when framed relative to US equity performance.  We further discussed the topic of international stock outperformance concerning valuations in today’s Chart of the Day. In the matrix below, we show the performance of 22 country ETFs since the US election in November, year to date in 2025, and month to date in February. We also show each ETF’s distance from 52-week highs and where they currently trade relative to their 50-DMAs.

On average, developed markets have massively outperformed since the election and year to date. Whereas the former are up an average of 5.5% since November, emerging markets have averaged a nearly 5% decline.  More recently, looking in the young month of March, developed markets are again collectively outperforming but by a much smaller margin. The single best performer and the only one currently trading at a 52-week high is Germany (EWG).  EWG has risen an impressive 7% since the end of last week, bringing it deeply into overbought territory.  However, that isn’t even the most overbought country ETF.  Hong Kong (EWH) is trading over 3 standard deviations above its 50-DMA for the country’s most overbought reading since October. Meanwhile, all the way at the other end of the spectrum by pretty much each measure is the US (SPY).  The S&P 500 has now erased close to all its post-election gains after falling the most of any country month-to-date.  As such, it is also the single most oversold country ETF on this list.