Jun 29, 2022
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s report we review widening of credit risk premiums in the investment grade corporate bond market.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed income markets and gain new perspective on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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Jun 29, 2022
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
Jun 26, 2022
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day free trial!
Cancer & Carcinogens
A turning point in cancer by Eric Topol (Substack)
Scientists have released an unprecedented series of breakthroughs related to cancer treatment, covering a wide range of therapies and types of cancer which could have huge impacts on overall mortality and quality of life. [Link]
FDA to Order Juul E-Cigarettes Off U.S. Market by Jennifer Maloney (WSJ)
E-cigarette leader Juul has been ordered off the US market after a two year review of data as part of an authorization process. Juul limited marketing and its flavor range in 2019, but its history of targeting teens will reportedly keep it off the market. [Link; paywall]
Supply Side
How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation? by Adam Hale Shapiro (FRBSF Economic Letters)
An analysis of PCE inflation suggesting that supply-side factors have been responsible for about 80% more inflation than demand-side factors (though those have also added substantially to overall PCE inflation. [Link]
The Supply-Side Damage Has Begun: The Dark Side Of Fed Tightening by Skanda Amarnath (Employ America)
The Fed’s tightening campaign has led to significant damage in housing markets already, and that damage is likely to lead to long-term damage to the supply side, making housing more expensive long-term. [Link]
Real Estate
Empty Wall Street Offices to Be Revived as Apartments by Rebecca Picciotto (WSJ)
A giant office tower at 55 Broad St is being renovated and converted into apartments as strong demand for rental units meets a slowdown in demand for central business district office. [Link; paywall]
Sky-High Housing Prices Look Back Down to Earth by Charlie Wells (Bloomberg)
After a staggering surge in home prices around the world, higher rates and eye-watering valuations are coming back to bite recent buyers. [Link; soft paywall]
Investing
JPMorgan Says Retail Investors Are Finally Bailing on Stocks by Lu Wang (Yahoo/Bloomberg)
After sticking with stocks all the way down, smaller investors may be starting to capitulate…just in time for stocks to rally, if the contrarian history of retail investors is any indication. [Link]
Facebook, Netflix and PayPal Are Value Stocks Now by Gunjan Banerji (WSJ)
Former high-flying tech names Meta (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and PayPal (PYPL) are all headed from growth to value per FTSE Russell methodologies which are updating the lists of stocks by style. [Link; paywall]
Ecology
World’s biggest bacteria discovered in Caribbean mangrove swamp by Clive Cookson (FT)
An absolutely enormous bacteria 50x as large as the previous record has been discovered in a mangrove swamp in Guadalupe; unlike virtually all other bacteria species, these are literally visible to the naked eye. [Link; paywall]
New Kings
Khabane Lame unseats Charli D’Amelio as top TikTok star with 142.8M fans by Andrew Court (NYP)
A former machine operator whose videos parody excesses of other creators has become the most-followed creator on TikTok. [Link; auto-playing video]
This Teen Has Already Broken Some of Usain Bolt’s Records. He’s Getting Faster. by Jeré Longman (NYT)
An 18-year old has become the fourth-fastest 200-meter runner in world history, and is a serious contender for the US championships this year. [Link; soft paywall]
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Have a great weekend!
Jun 24, 2022
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members.
Equity markets turned in a more positive week as interest rates traders mulled the possibility of lower commodity prices bailing out a Fed that looks intent on committing a policy error. We discuss the Fed’s missteps, the widespread declines in a number of major commodity markets, the relationship between recessions and bear markets, the messages being sent by interest rates, why oil supply problems aren’t fixed even if prices have dropped, the implications of large declines like the last few weeks for forward returns, global equity market performance and trends, bad overseas economic data this week, slowing manufacturing surveys in the US and around the world, housing affordability, interest rate sensitive sectors of the stock market, and more in this week’s Bespoke Report.
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