Jan 1, 2023
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!
The Year Coming & Going
Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023 (CNBC)
Consensus from economists and forecasters is for a US recession in 2023 with Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening the key driver of the slowdown. [Link]
The Year the Long Stock Market Rally Ended by Joe Rennison (NYT)
Soaring interest rates in response to high inflation have crushed the stock market this year, delivering the sort of grinding bear market that was impossible during the previous decade. [Link; soft paywall]
SBF
POLITICO Playbook: Inside the scramble to trace SBF’s dirty money by Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade, and Eugene Daniels (Politico)
Political donations by the FTX and Alameda Research chief have spiraled outwards and look likely to have driven a straw-donor scheme that has enveloped at least one progressive think tank. [Link]
Sam Bankman-Fried’s only way out is ratting on Binance and Tether by Steven Stradbrooke (Coingeek)
A speculative account that might explain why Sam Bankman-Fried isn’t still behind bars: cooperation on an even bigger fraud fish. [Link]
Consumer Spending
Economy Has Drinkers Choosing Prosecco Over Champagne by Jennifer Maloney (WSJ)
Consumers are less inclined to shell out for premium spirits brands and are more inclined to reach for cheaper swill when they shop for hooch. [Link; paywall]
The world just doesn’t have enough planes as travel roars back (The Straits Times)
Soaring demand for travel combined with supply chain disruptions and production slowdowns during the pandemic mean the global airliner order backlog numbers nearly 13,000 planes. [Link]
Consumers Change Food-Delivery Habits by Preetika Rana and Heather Haddon (WSJ)
After booming during the pandemic, food delivery is shifting thanks to smaller discretionary budgets and high inflation. [Link; paywall]
Auto Industry
Carmakers quietly cut ties with China in supply chain shake-up by Peter Campbell, Eri Sugiura, and Edward White (FT)
Global automakers are shifting away from parts purchases in China, joining other industries in questioning reliance on the country. [Link; paywall]
Electric Vehicle Charging Investment Approaches the $100 Billion Mark by Ryan Fisher (Bloomberg)
By the end of this year investment in electric vehicle charging hardware and installation will top more than $60bn with almost half that again due for next year alone. [Link; paywall]
Toyota Chief Says ‘Silent Majority’ Has Doubts About Pursuing Only EVs by River Davis and Sean McLain (WSJ)
Early skepticism about fully battery-electric vehicles have left Toyota far behind the curve in that segment, so it’s not a surprise that management is talking down an area they lag the market. [Link; paywall]
Food
Who created chicken tikka masala? The death of a curry king is reviving a debate by Emily Olson (NPR)
The ubiquitous tomato-cream chicken is most likely not a creation of the Indian subcontinent at all but a Scottish hybrid based on tomato soup. [Link]
How Changing Diets Leave Us Exposed to War, Extreme Weather and Market Turbulence (Bloomberg)
Global diets are shifting towards the same uniform diet across countries and continents as the world eats more grain, more meat, and less local food. [Link]
Google
Google Employees Brace for a Cost-Cutting Drive as Anxiety Mounts by Nico Grant (NYT)
Gone are the days when massive search revenues and ever-expanding cloud investment fueled huge salaries and a monstrous workforce. The vibe, as they say, has shifted. [Link; soft paywall]
Money Management
Schwab’s Investment in Dynasty Could Be the First of Many by Diana Britton (Wealth Management)
With assets flocking to the registered investment advisor space, brokerage giant Schwab is buying up a services provider that caters to the space. [Link]
China
China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day (Bloomberg)
As China’s government lets COVID infections rip, tens of millions of people are contracting the virus every day in one of the largest booms in COVID cases since the pandemic began. [Link; soft paywall, auto-playing video]
Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by joining Bespoke Premium today! Get started here.
Have a great weekend!
Dec 28, 2022
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s report, we review fixed income returns this year.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
Click here and start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional to see our newest Fixed Income Weekly now!
Dec 28, 2022
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
Dec 18, 2022
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
While you’re here, join Bespoke Premium with a 30-day trial!
Crypto
Exclusive: How a secret software change allowed FTX to use client money by Angus Berwick, John Shiffman, and Koh Gui Qing (Reuters)
A small change in FTX code allowed Alameda Research to borrow indefinitely, regardless of the value of collateral posted by the hedge fund to the exchange. [Link]
All the young dudes carry the bags by Louis Ashworth (FTAV)
Using data from bank customers, JPMorgan made some basic demographic estimates about who bought crypto when. The results are about what you would think. [Link; paywall]
C-Suite
Bob Iger vs. Bob Chapek: Inside the Disney Coup by Joe Flint, Robbie Whelan, Erich Schwartzel, Emily Glazer and Jessica Toonkel (WSJ)
An inside account of the downfall of Disney’s CEO to Disney’s previous CEO, fueled by investor angst over streaming losses and perceptions that Chapek was driving the company into the ground. [Link]
Musk Shakes Up Twitter’s Legal Team as He Looks to Cut More Costs by Ryan Mac, Mike Isaac, and Kate Conger (NYT)
As turmoil mounts at Twitter, the company has stopped paying rent, refused to pay charter flight bills, and mulled the possibility of not paying severance promised to employees fired since the takeover. [Link; soft paywall]
Housing
Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One by Ben Eisen and Nicole Friedman (WSJ)
Few low quality mortgage loans, big equity cushions, and lots of people waiting for a dip in prices make this period of falling prices look very different from the subprime mortgage collapse. [Link; paywall]
Why Are Market Rents Decelerating? It’s Probably Not Because Of The Fed by Alex Williams (Employ America)
Rents started to slow before the rapid interest rate hikes of 2022 started, making them unlikely to be a consequence of Federal Reserve policy to slow the economy. [Link]
EU Politics
EU strikes deal with Hungary, reducing funding freeze to get Ukraine aid approved by Paola Tamma (Politico)
Hungary will see less of its EU funding frozen in exchange for lifting a veto on Ukrainian aid, part of a complicated process of negotiations that is par for the course when it comes to European Union legislating. [Link]
Emergencies
Gun Violence Is Falling In 2022 by Jeff Asher (Jeff-alytics)
National statistics showed a widespread uptick in shootings during the pandemic, but that spike appears to be reversing in 2022 as society returns to something more like normal. [Link]
Calling 911 in Charlotte? Your ambulance might show up without lights and sirens. by Genna Contino (The Charlotte Observer)
Ambulances are starting to run without sirens and lights in an effort to make emergency calls safer in the vast majority of calls to 9-1-1 that do not involve life-threatening emergencies. [Link; soft paywall]
Electric Vehicles
Ford increases F-150 Lightning price, now starts at $56,000 by Fred Lambert (Electrek)
The lowest-priced tier of Ford’s electric pickup now goes for 40% more than its original base price thanks to huge demand and soaring materials costs; higher-end versions are significantly more expensive. [Link]
Trading Education
School of Quant: At $29,000, a Public NYC College Outclasses Princeton by Heather Perlberg (Bloomberg)
An NYC resident will pay less than $30k for a Masters that will let them earn nearly $170k before bonus fresh out of graduation. [Link; soft paywall]
Accounting
The $80tn “hidden debt” and what it really means by Daniel Davies (FT)
When trying to assess financial vulnerability, labels matter. That’s especially true when it’s not entirely clear how those labels should be applied. [Link; paywall]
Grammar
Solving grammar’s greatest puzzle by Tom Almeroth-Williams (University of Cambridge)
A complicated system of 4,000 rules has finally been unlocked in full, with the 2,500 year old algorithm of Sanskrit word assembly’s last rule determined by a Cambridge PhD student. [Link]
Read Bespoke’s most actionable market research by joining Bespoke Premium today! Get started here.
Have a great weekend!
