Feb 10, 2023
In this note we update performance of our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices. The index of stocks that are exposed to Amazon’s business model have traded more or less in lock step with the market over the past two years. That’s a big contrast with the prior decade when they either outperformed or underperformed pretty dramatically.
The same can’t be said for our “Amazon Survivors” names which are intended to capture stocks which are resilient to the rise of Amazon’s monster e-commerce business despite competing with it. This index has generally outperformed the market as a whole.
Both flavors of index have outperformed Amazon significantly over the past five months or so. During that period, the market has broadly rallied even though large tech names like Amazon have sunk to the lowest levels of the equity bear market.
Our “Death By Amazon” index was created many years ago to provide investors with a list of retailers we view as vulnerable to competition from e-commerce. In 2016, we also created our “Amazon Survivors” index which is made up of companies that look more capable of dealing with the threat from online shopping. To see how the two indices have been performing lately and view the full list of stocks that make up the indices, please read our newest report on the subject available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.
To unlock our “Death By Amazon” and “Amazon Survivors” indices, login or start a two-week free trial to either Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.
Feb 8, 2023
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s report, we discuss what the short-term interest rate market is pricing.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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Feb 5, 2023
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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Going Green
CTR reports on improved lithium extraction from brine (The Desert Review)
A new process for extracting lithium from the water inside geothermal power plant loops is starting to scale up in California’s Salton Sea. [Link]
Cities Would Literally Be Much Cooler With More Trees by Lara Williams (Bloomberg)
Sometimes big problems have remarkably simple solutions. For cities, high temperatures, pollution, and health crises could all be improved by planting a lot more trees. [Link; soft paywall]
Dysportsia
Get Used to Face Recognition in Stadiums by Khari Johnson (Wired)
The dystopian use of facial recognition systems at Madison Square Garden is only the tip of the iceberg as sports venues work to contain fans who get out of hand…and some they just don’t like. [Link]
Sports Illustrated Publisher Taps AI to Generate Articles, Story Ideas by Alexandra Bruell (WSJ)
Arena Group, which publishes a range of finance, sports, and general interest sites, is integrating AI to produce content using AI, sometimes by using inventories of content from the group’s previous articles. [Link; paywall]
ChatGPT
OpenAI launches ChatGPT Plus, a paid version of the popular AI chat by Christianna Silva (Mashable)
For $20 per month, paid users get more reliable uptime and faster access to the popular AI chatbot protocol which has spread widely across the internet in the last few months. [Link]
Are You Smarter Than ChatGPT? OpenAI Tool Aims to Detect AI-Generated Text by Michael Kan (PC Mag)
Amidst concerns that AI-generated text is being misused (especially by students), ChatGPT’s creators at OpenAI have created a tool that claims to be able to detect whether a piece of text was AI-generated or human in origin. [Link]
Chow
Wings and Guacamole Are Cheaper, Just in Time for Your Super Bowl Party by Kevin Simauchi (Yahoo!/Bloomberg)
After a huge surge alongside other commodities over the past couple of years, prices for chicken and avocados are collapsing just in time for the Super Bowl. [Link]
Wave of ‘sushi terrorism’ grips Japan’s restaurant world by Justin McCurry (The Guardian)
Conveyor belt sushi restaurants have become the focus of an unfortunate social media trend which has sent their stocks plunging as a breakdown in basic social decorum threatens to remake the industry in Japan. [Link]
Raising Chickens for Cheaper Eggs Gets Expensive Fast by Rachel Wolfe (WSJ)
If you’re trying to skip the high egg prices at the grocery store by raising your own chickens, watch out: you might be signing up for more than you bargained for. [Link; paywall]
Pandemic
Merck Covid Drug Linked to New Virus Mutations, Study Says by John Lauerman (Bloomberg)
A study has found that a Merck treatment for COVID-19 creates more mutations of the virus, which works by altering the virus’s genome to reduce replication. [Link; soft paywall]
US Offices Reach 50% Occupancy for First Time Since Pandemic Hit by Matthew Boyle (BNN Bloomberg)
For the first time since the pandemic hit, building occupancies across 10 major metro areas moved above 50%, marking a major milestone in the return to normal that has been slowly and steadily emerging. [Link]
Adani
The Adani affair: the fallout for Modi’s India by John Reed and Benjamin Parkin (FT)
A look at the macroeconomic and political milieu that surrounds Gautam Adani and his company in the wake of a catastrophic decline in shares following short seller allegations of stock manipulation and accounting fraud. [Link; paywall]
Balloon
US Downs Alleged Chinese Spy Balloon That Lingered for Days by Christian Hall and Riley Griffin (Bloomberg)
After a Chinese weather balloon (or, depending on who you’re listening too, spy platform) spent a week above the US, an American fighter jet shot it down over the South Carolina coast on Saturday. [Link; soft paywall]
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Have a great weekend!
Feb 3, 2023
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
In a blockbuster week for labor market data, the FOMC slowed the pace of rate hikes further but kept trying to talk tough about the outlook for rates. Equity, foreign exchange, and credit markets had different ideas both in the US and around the world. We dive deep into quarterly data on wages and productivity, monthly jobs numbers from the blockbuster Employment Situation Report today, PMI data from around the world economy, and other tidbits from the data this week. Earnings are also underway, and we provide qualitative and quantitative highlights from earnings results on both sides of the Atlantic this week.
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