Fixed Income Weekly: 3/1/23
Searching for ways to better understand the fixed income space or looking for actionable ideas in this asset class? Bespoke’s Fixed Income Weekly provides an update on rates and credit every Wednesday. We start off with a fresh piece of analysis driven by what’s in the headlines or driving the market in a given week. We then provide charts of how US Treasury futures and rates are trading, before moving on to a summary of recent fixed income ETF performance, short-term interest rates including money market funds, and a trade idea. We summarize changes and recent developments for a variety of yield curves (UST, bund, Eurodollar, US breakeven inflation and Bespoke’s Global Yield Curve) before finishing with a review of recent UST yield curve changes, spread changes for major credit products and international bonds, and 1 year return profiles for a cross section of the fixed income world.
In this week’s report, we look at the bills market and the debt ceiling.
Our Fixed Income Weekly helps investors stay on top of fixed-income markets and gain new perspectives on the developments in interest rates. You can sign up for a Bespoke research trial below to see this week’s report and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!
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Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard — 3/1/23
Bespoke’s Global Macro Dashboard is a high-level summary of 22 major economies from around the world. For each country, we provide charts of local equity market prices, relative performance versus global equities, price to earnings ratios, dividend yields, economic growth, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production growth, inflation, money supply, spot FX performance versus the dollar, policy rate, and ten year local government bond yield interest rates. The report is intended as a tool for both reference and idea generation. It’s clients’ first stop for basic background info on how a given economy is performing, and what issues are driving the narrative for that economy. The dashboard helps you get up to speed on and keep track of the basics for the most important economies around the world, informing starting points for further research and risk management. It’s published the last Wednesday of every month at the Bespoke Institutional membership level.
You can access our Global Macro Dashboard by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional now!
Bespoke Brunch Reads: 2/26/23
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week. The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
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Warfare
How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down by Max Seddon, Christopher Miller, and Felicia Schwartz (FT)
A detailed look at the psychology, advisors, and historical misconceptions that led Russia to its disastrous invasion of Ukraine, a war that has now claimed over 200,000 casualties within Russia’s military alone. [Link; paywall]
Sensitive US military emails spill online by Zack Whittaker (Tech Crunch)
A Microsoft Azure cloud server hosting Department of Defense emails was open to the public internet for two weeks, spilling years of emails and personal information, though none of the exposed emails appear to be classified. [Link]
State Policy
Frontier Institute Statement In Support of SB 323 (Frontier Institute)
A libertarian think tank in Montana has penned this endorsement of SB 323, a bill reforming zoning regulations and allowing higher density home construction. In what can only be described as trolling, the institute argues “we don’t want Montana to become like California” by preventing cities from building housing up instead of sprawling out. [Link]
Kids Buying Weed From Bodegas Wasn’t in the ‘Legal Weed’ Plan by Ginia Bellafante (NYT)
Legalization of marijuana in New York City is proceeding about how one would expect: messy, entrepreneurial, controversial, and confusing. The result is widespread underground marijuana sales at bodegas as legal dispensaries struggle to navigate state licensure. [Link; soft paywall]
Energy Markets
Global distillate fuel oil inventories by John Kemp (Reuters)
A helpful rundown on extremely tight global inventories of distillate (diesel) fuels which are extremely low thanks to the disruptions of the war in Ukraine. [Link; 15 page PDF]
Big Tech
Google asks some employees to share desks amid office downsizing by Jennifer Elias (CNBC)
Looking to save money on real estate amidst a boom in work from home, Google is asking employees at its cloud unit to share desk space at its 5 largest locations. [Link]
China tells big tech companies not to offer ChatGPT services by Cissy Zhou (Nikkei Asia)
OpenAI’s chatbot is not finding fans at the Chinse Communist Party, as regulators have instructed companies like Tencent and Ant Group to avoid offering access on their platforms. [Link; soft paywall]
The quietest place on earth will drive you insane (The Jerusalem Post/Walla! Health)
In a quiet enough room, you can hear your heart beat, the flow of blood through your body, and the creak of your bones. Why Microsoft would want to build a torture chamber like this is a bit beyond us but they did it. [Link]
Industrial Policy
Tesla Makes US the Focus of Battery-Making Efforts in Blow to Germany by Wilfried Eckl-Dorna (Bloomberg)
Tesla has decided to manufacture battery cells in the US instead of Germany thanks to the incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act passed last year. Tax credits in the act cover as much as 30% of the operating costs for cell manufacturers. [Link; soft paywall]
Business Models
Pay-Per-Chew: More restaurants trying subscription programs (Fox 5 NY)
In an effort to generate more predictable revenue streams and draw repeat customers, mom and pop shops are following the lead of Silicon Valley and offering subscriptions for loyal customers. [Link]
Odd News
The FBI searched the Pennsylvania wilderness for a cache of gold. A treasure hunter wants to know what it found. (CBS)
While the FBI claims there was nothing found when it searched for a Civil War-era gold cache, but competing treasure hunters think they might be hiding something. [Link]
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Have a great weekend!
The Bespoke Report – 2/24/23
This week’s Bespoke Report newsletter is now available for members. (Log in here if you’re already a subscriber.)
It was another busy data week with Friday’s personal consumption expenditures inflation data delivering another painfully high reading. Earnings also wrapped up after a busy six weeks of results. We discuss index performance in the US, Asia, and Europe, dive deep into earnings results, break down movements in the dollar, discuss shifts in interest rates, and break down all the major data releases this week in the context of the hawkish Federal Reserve.
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